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Message
re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:36 am to X123F45
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:36 am to X123F45
One thing I've noticed from following this stuff is that meteorologists tend to be prima donnas. If you question their assumptions, they take it personally and get offended. Bastardi being the most notable, but others too. On the local boards, one of the most pedantic is a recent college graduate who hasn't even started his first real meteorology job yet, but man does he have his opinions.
4
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:44 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
one of the most pedantic is a recent college graduate who hasn't even started his first real meteorology job yet, but man does he have his opinions.
Dylan?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:50 am to deuce985
The Euro has been so consistent, the GFS has been a little more back and forth but has remained firmly in the East camp. Will be really interesting to see who wins out on this one. Typically the GFS slowly comes around to the Euro but this set up is not your usual middle of hurricane season setup so I think anything is possible. Will be curious to see which models begins to slowly cave to the other.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:53 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Also according to NWS NO/BR they should get some better model runs by this time tomorrow:
literally said every day for every storm.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 10:00 am to LSUsmartass
Yeah. Aric is another one.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 10:00 am to Chad504boy
Wasn't the Euro the balls-on star last season?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 10:07 am to udtiger
The Euro is typically more accurate on tropical stuff. I think the GFS is better with winter storms maybe idk. But still don’t take any model as gospel. You have to look at trends between models and runs. Many times people look at one run that looks bad and freak out.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 10:18 am to catholictigerfan
Euro has been zeroed in on SELA for several days. I hope it's wrong but if it is, it will be consistently wrong. At any rate, this thing would be NBD except for the potential to stall and dump rain on one area.
Another observation. Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline. Maybe that's a skewed perception, but we seem to get more than our share. Harvey notwithstanding, it seems Texas ought to have more hits than it does based on length pf coastline. These things make a beeline for Louisiana, SELA in particular.
Another observation. Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline. Maybe that's a skewed perception, but we seem to get more than our share. Harvey notwithstanding, it seems Texas ought to have more hits than it does based on length pf coastline. These things make a beeline for Louisiana, SELA in particular.
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 10:20 am
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:13 am to Chad504boy
quote:
literally said every day for every storm.
It's kind of an obvious statement, since we get to sample the atmosphere of the factors that will stear the system the closer in. Those weather balloons launched every 12 hours aren't just for fun and games.
The big question now isn't where it goes, but how long it sticks around where ever it ends up. At least the rain making potential is off a cooler May gulf of Mexico compared to having a hot August gulf to feed off of.
ETA:
quote:
Another observation. Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline. Maybe that's a skewed perception, but we seem to get more than our share. Harvey notwithstanding, it seems Texas ought to have more hits than it does based on length pf coastline. These things make a beeline for Louisiana, SELA in particular.
These systems, all things being equal, "want" to go North and Northeast. The Bermuda high that sits over the Atlantic keeps that from happening and often you see storms ride the edge of that high once the door is open to go North. Since Texas is farther west and oriented more North to South, it's not shocking they tend end up in Louisiana and points east more.
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 11:17 am
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:14 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline.
Florida gets hit way more I feel
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:15 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
One thing I've noticed from following this stuff is that meteorologists tend to be prima donnas. If you question their assumptions, they take it personally and get offended. Bastardi being the most notable, but others too. On the local boards, one of the most pedantic is a recent college graduate who hasn't even started his first real meteorology job yet, but man does he have his opinions.
James Spann is pretty bad at this. He can be pretty smug and he will unleash his hordes of followers on anyone that questions him.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:18 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Another observation. Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline. Maybe that's a skewed perception, but we seem to get more than our share. Harvey notwithstanding, it seems Texas ought to have more hits than it does based on length pf coastline. These things make a beeline for Louisiana, SELA in particular.
Texas takes a ton of hits, especially down south near Mexico. Those areas are not heavily populated and so there is just not much news about those storms as there is little loss of life or property.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:21 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Another observation. Louisiana seems to take more hits than anybody else despite having around 10% of the total gulf coastline. Maybe that's a skewed perception, but we seem to get more than our share. Harvey notwithstanding, it seems Texas ought to have more hits than it does based on length pf coastline. These things make a beeline for Louisiana, SELA in particular.
Here's an archive of storms over the years. Click on the year and you will see the paths the storms took. Maybe this will support or shootdown your observation.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:25 am to FairhopeTider
We in this baws! Ready to ride this out and hunker down!
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:26 am to WoWyHi
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:27 am to FairhopeTider
So Houston has a similar rate of hurricane strikes to SELa, though not quite a frequent. SWLa has them less frequently than both the Houston area and the rest of the central gulf coast.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:27 am to Jim Rockford
I saw that on Storm2k. He's a dick and a hothead.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:36 am to WoWyHi
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:40 am to lsutiger2010
quote:
I have a camping trip planned for next weekend around Pensacola. How screwed am I?
Probably won’t be the most exciting! If it’s NEXT weekend you may actually be ok, dealing with the normal scattered storms.
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 11:42 am
Posted on 5/23/18 at 11:40 am to Jim Rockford
Euro is usually more consistent but the GFS has beaten the Euro several times with these systems before. Last year on a few storms I can remember it picked up on trends before the Euro did with the Euro eventually aligning with the GFS. They're both good. Anything can happen with this storm on where it hits. Too early. Thing that needs to be eyed is if it stalls over someone for 3 days like Euro desperately wants it to do. You could be talking about some very serious flooding with this system especially depending on how it develops itself from here to there.
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 11:42 am
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