re: 1962 Alcatraz Escape - Do you think them Baws made it?

It’s also the temperature of the water. Alcatraz was one of the few federal prison at the time that offered inmates hot water for showers so that their body didn’t accumulate to the cold

I think there is a 60% chance they made it.

Easy to get new ID back then no computers for law to look you up

They can now go back and check currents and winds at time of escape.

Law didn’t want anyone to know an escape worked so that helps if they did escape as press was told they didn’t. Might be true might be a cover up.

We’ll never know for 100% certainty which is what makes the story interesting. Nowadays with instant access to information its hard for some folks to comprehend something without a for sure answer.

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Frank Morris had a near genius IQ.

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Great point. There is his contribution to this escape.

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That being said, although it does not look as hard to make it through the water in terms of distance. It's not as easy as one might think. The currents are such that you have to be a really strong swimmer and or paddler just to make Angel Island. Then to make it from there they would need coordinated outside help.

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I understand that these guys laid on the floor with wet cloth on them to inure themselves to the effects of cold water. The Anglin brothers used to swim in Lake Michigan as kids while ice was still present. Combine these facts with a raft and this plan shifts to very credible in my view. Their contribution was extensive cold water swimming experience and understanding how to prepare for surviving such an effort.
If each followed the leads and strengths of the others, this was a viable combination of skills which likely succeeded.
I don't like the prospect of thinking that they got away, but I still think that it happened. I figure that they got picked up on shore and made their way to South America where they scraped out a living during a time when technology and enforcement politics did not catch up with them.

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Logic says no way. It would have been a long shot even in favorable conditions. The only way I say yes is if they had some sort of outside help.

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This right here, the escape attempt was in June. San Fran is pretty chilly this time of year especially at night in the water. Not to mention sharks are prevalent and feed at night into early morning hours. And as someone mentioned earlier, there’s no way this secret would have been kept forever.

I think they made it as well. The FBI and U.S. Marshals had agents at the brothers’ mother’s funeral. That makes me think they had some evidence that one or all three made it. Perhaps a tip or something else

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Have you ever swam 1.5 miles in open water? The average swim time for an half Ironman event (1.2 mile swim) is 40+ minutes, and those people train for that event. The water in SF Bay is 50 degrees. The inmates had no wet suits. Good luck

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There is an ep of the old Sea Hunt TV series where a guy escapes into the water at a designated time and is met by scuba divers w/a wet suit,

Re currents: has anyone mentioned trying to swim across the Miss River?