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So ESPN says the person with the best odds to pass Brees all time passing yards record
Posted on 10/18/18 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 10/18/18 at 6:08 pm
Is, out of all fricking people, Matty Ice, frick that, Hate ESPN
Predicting the NFL's next record-breakers: Who will top Drew Brees?
Matt Ryan is a better candidate, given that the Falcons quarterback is only 33 and already has 43,751 yards. He's on pace to finish with a career-high 5,213 passing yards this season, which would get him to 47,009. If we want to figure out his chances of finishing with more than 80,504 yards, we can use Bill James' Favorite Toy formula, which the legendary sabermetrician invented to try to project the chances of players breaking baseball records. In this case, the formula -- which is explained more here -- suggests Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career.
Espn
Predicting the NFL's next record-breakers: Who will top Drew Brees?
Matt Ryan is a better candidate, given that the Falcons quarterback is only 33 and already has 43,751 yards. He's on pace to finish with a career-high 5,213 passing yards this season, which would get him to 47,009. If we want to figure out his chances of finishing with more than 80,504 yards, we can use Bill James' Favorite Toy formula, which the legendary sabermetrician invented to try to project the chances of players breaking baseball records. In this case, the formula -- which is explained more here -- suggests Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career.
Espn
11
Posted on 10/18/18 at 6:14 pm to t00f
quote:
In this case, the formula -- which is explained more here -- suggests Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career.
Yeah man, definitely worth getting pissed at ESPN over.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 6:32 pm to t00f
So Ryan has to almost double his career output to get to Brees' projected career total? I'll take those odds.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 6:42 pm to NOSA
quote:
Yeah man, definitely worth getting pissed at ESPN over
I think its more of my high disdain for the Falcons is where that is rooted
Posted on 10/18/18 at 7:17 pm to t00f
Who cares!! I could care less about this record. I want Brees to get more rings
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:17 pm to t00f
Well espn is fricking stupid because Stafford has a MUCH better shot at breaking it
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:19 pm to gptigerfan
Fratty Ice will already be retired and Drew still playing. 
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:59 pm to t00f
quote:
Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career.
There is a 1% chance that I will run into Ryan, insult him, and finally obtain his autograph only to tear it up and spit on it as I scream, "Who Dat".
Posted on 10/18/18 at 9:07 pm to t00f
Matt Ryan has been sacked 17 times already this season, and has been hit 47 times. At this rate, by the end of the season, he'll be sacked 45 times, and hit 125 times. He'll be lucky not to spend the offseason in traction or a wheelchair, frick talk about breaking any passing records.
To put it into perspective, Brees has been sacked 8 times, and hit only 17.
Brees may have been born before Ryan, but Ryan's career should be calculated in dog years.
To put it into perspective, Brees has been sacked 8 times, and hit only 17.
Brees may have been born before Ryan, but Ryan's career should be calculated in dog years.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 9:08 pm to Mrwhodat
quote:
There is a 1% chance that I will run into Ryan, insult him, and finally obtain his autograph only to tear it up and spit on it as I scream, "Who Dat".
That is the hate in my heart that I love.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 9:43 pm to t00f
quote:
Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career.
I think the take away here is no one is breaking Brees record for a long, long time.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 8:19 am to t00f
It's all about longevity. If Drew retires after next season, and Ryan keeps playing at the same level until 41-42 to break he record, then he deserves it.
I would trade another Superbowl with Drew for that scenario any day. I'm sure he would too.
I would trade another Superbowl with Drew for that scenario any day. I'm sure he would too.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 10:00 am to t00f
There have been 9 5,000 yard passing seasons in NFL history . . . Drew Brees has 5 of those. No other QB has more than one.
The only thing keeping Brees down the last couple years is the Saints' running game.
The only thing keeping Brees down the last couple years is the Saints' running game.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 10:12 am to t00f
No one knows where his record will officially end. Ryan is about 7 years off his record now, but maybe more like 10-12 by the time Drew retires. Does anyone really believe that Ryan has 10-12 more years with this type of output left? I don't.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:06 pm to ELVIS U
Heck, it's possible. The way the game is changing, I think 5000 yds will become more common. Less emphasis on the run, plus more rules preventing hitting the QB and lighting up WRs downfield.
That's going to lead to both more pass-happy offenses and QBs staying in the league longer.
Re: Stafford vs Ryan, I think Stafford has already max'd out, and Ryan can still up his game more. Both play in domes, but Stafford has Chicago and Green Bay weather to deal with, while Atlanta has Carolina and Tampa. Bit of an advantage there.
That's going to lead to both more pass-happy offenses and QBs staying in the league longer.
Re: Stafford vs Ryan, I think Stafford has already max'd out, and Ryan can still up his game more. Both play in domes, but Stafford has Chicago and Green Bay weather to deal with, while Atlanta has Carolina and Tampa. Bit of an advantage there.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:10 pm to t00f
quote:
suggests Ryan has a 14.4 percent shot of breaking Brees' record by the time the 2016 MVP finishes his career
So you're pissed because ESPN said the guy with the best chance of breaking Brees' record has an 86% chance of failure?
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