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Remembering that a 1st next year is equivalent to a 2nd this year
Posted on 1/17/23 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 1/17/23 at 5:37 pm
Reading from a lot of people about compensation, there seems to be the misunderstanding that a first next year is equal to a first this year in a trade.
This is not true. It is generally accepted that a future pick is worth a round lower if it is in a later year. So a first next year is basically a second.
This should be accounted for when evaluating the value of these trade possibilities.
This is not true. It is generally accepted that a future pick is worth a round lower if it is in a later year. So a first next year is basically a second.
This should be accounted for when evaluating the value of these trade possibilities.
8
Posted on 1/17/23 at 6:18 pm to Geauxgurt
I don't know what to say
Posted on 1/17/23 at 6:33 pm to Geauxgurt
So philly’s 10 pick upcoming is 2nd rd value?
Posted on 1/17/23 at 6:49 pm to Geauxgurt
That may be correct for most cases but that is not always true and that’s not how teams view that shite.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 7:28 pm to Geauxgurt
I'd take my chances on a team like the Texans giving me a future 1st over their second for sure. Good chance it takes a year or so to build a team before they're picking in late first.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 8:11 pm to St Augustine
That sounds like some Democrat math. I mean it isn't like you are trading with the LA Rams that had injuries and stuff.
Step one: Is your trade partner a potential playoff team in 2023? If the answer is NO, then you are already looking at 1-18.
Step two: Did they overachieve in 2023? There are some teams that I would bet on being worse based on teams around them. So if the Rams and Zona are remotely better then Seattle will be worse.
Step three: Also am I making the playoffs. Probably No. So I am also picking between 10-18.
So I have thought the play all along is to take (2) mid round picks and move up and that still might not be enough. You might be trading the 12th and 16th and a 4th round to move up to 3rd or 4th in the 1st round.
Step one: Is your trade partner a potential playoff team in 2023? If the answer is NO, then you are already looking at 1-18.
Step two: Did they overachieve in 2023? There are some teams that I would bet on being worse based on teams around them. So if the Rams and Zona are remotely better then Seattle will be worse.
Step three: Also am I making the playoffs. Probably No. So I am also picking between 10-18.
So I have thought the play all along is to take (2) mid round picks and move up and that still might not be enough. You might be trading the 12th and 16th and a 4th round to move up to 3rd or 4th in the 1st round.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 8:35 pm to tigerterrace
It’s an unknown and while it may payoff like Miami getting a top 4 pick from the Texans, the point is you know what you are getting this year, and it is unknown the following year. You know what and who is available this year. Philly didn’t just deal firsts last year. They got the Saints First and more to account for the lower value of a pick in next years draft.
That’s why I think a high 2nd this year plus a first next year is reasonable return and price for both sides. It is essentially two 2nd founders.
That’s why I think a high 2nd this year plus a first next year is reasonable return and price for both sides. It is essentially two 2nd founders.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 8:52 pm to Geauxgurt
This isn’t as crazy a notion as it sounds. There is a time value to a pick you give to someone now in exchange for one you use later. It may not be as formulaic as a whole round, but there is value associated with being able to use a pick immediately and it should be considered in negotiation.
It’s like money you use now versus money you can’t use until later. There should be an added value associated with that wait.
It’s like money you use now versus money you can’t use until later. There should be an added value associated with that wait.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 9:13 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
Reading from a lot of people about compensation, there seems to be the misunderstanding that a first next year is equal to a first this year in a trade.
This is not true. It is generally accepted that a future pick is worth a round lower if it is in a later year. So a first next year is basically a second.
This should be accounted for when evaluating the value of these trade possibilities.
This is 100% true, fwiw.
That doesn't mean that a pick next year couldn't end up being worth more than a pick this year. But, from a value standpoint, that's how picks are viewed and for good reason.
Posted on 1/17/23 at 10:05 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
Remembering that a 1st next year is equivalent to a 2nd this year
I don't see it that way.
It all depends on the Team you trade with.
Chicago would be a better trading partner then KC.
Thus, Houston and Arizona are better trading partners then Denver and the Chargers.The Broncos and LA have better Teams. So Future !st rd picks would likely be higher with the Texans and Cardinals.
That being said a 1st rounder will always be a 1st rounder..
Even if its the following year.its a gamble
Saints just need to be smart with who they trade with.
This post was edited on 1/17/23 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 1/18/23 at 7:38 am to Geauxgurt
quote:
Reading from a lot of people about compensation, there seems to be the misunderstanding that a first next year is equal to a first this year in a trade.
This is not true. It is generally accepted that a future pick is worth a round lower if it is in a later year. So a first next year is basically a second.
This should be accounted for when evaluating the value of these trade possibilities.
I could care less about a point value for a pick.
a 1st round pick in 2024 IS a first round pick in 2024. It's not like you recieve the 20th overall pick in 2024 and come draft day that pick is now the 41st overall pick.
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 7:40 am
Posted on 1/18/23 at 9:12 am to Snipe
quote:
a 1st round pick in 2024 IS a first round pick in 2024. It's not like you recieve the 20th overall pick in 2024 and come draft day that pick is now the 41st overall pick.
...but you wait a year to get that player and his development is a year behind the same pick this year.
The OP is right. That doesn't mean that getting the #1 overall next year isn't better than getting the #32 this year.
But, if you assume the same pick, the OP is right on the money.
Posted on 1/18/23 at 10:26 am to moneyg
quote:
...but you wait a year to get that player and his development is a year behind the same pick this year.
The OP is right. That doesn't mean that getting the #1 overall next year isn't better than getting the #32 this year.
But, if you assume the same pick, the OP is right on the money.
Well we're not trading CSP for a 2024 1st round pick alone so the picks you get in 2023 will mature with their draft class and the 2024 pick will mature with his draft class.
The situation the Saints are in they need lots of pick over the next 2 maybe 3 drafts. They need you cheap talent that can develop and have on the roster while they clean up the cap mess left by Brees and others.
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