NFL's depressed RB market sets uncertain future for Alvin Kamara

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Did you know Alvin Kamara is the NFL’s second-highest paid running back? The New Orleans Saints star is currently playing on a deal averaging $15 million per year. Only San Francisco 49ers dynamo Christian McCaffrey earns more, at more than $16 million. There’s a gulf developing between McCaffrey, Kamara, and their peers around the league, and it’s growing wider by the day.
The NFL running back market has depressed as teams invest more dollars in what they perceive as higher-priority positions, with mediocre quarterbacks and wide receivers carving out larger and larger slices of the pie as the league puts a premium on the passing game. Great running backs are seeing their wages suppressed while duds like 21-31-1 New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones ($40 million per year) and 57-yards-per-game Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Diontae Johnson ($18.3 million) are overpaid. So are has-beens like Deshaun Watson ($46 million) and Odell Beckham Jr. ($15 million).

To be clear, we aren’t blaming those players for getting paid. Teams aren’t doing a good job of valuing the players who do the most to help their offenses. Good running backs take pressure off the quarterbacks and receivers and force the defense to stay honest and consider all venues of attack. The Steelers offense doesn’t work if Najee Harris isn’t powering them. Neither is the Giants offense without Saquon Barkley. It sure doesn’t help that Barkley was all talk and no action in his recent contract dispute, agreeing to return on the franchise tag in exchange for less than $1 million in incentives, all of which is tied to a postseason berth.

Accomplished runners like Dalvin Cook are still looking for an agreeable offer, while the 25-year-old rushing champ Josh Jacobs is embroiled in his own franchise tag dispute. So is Indianapolis Colts stud Jonathan Taylor. The players with the shortest careers and greatest exposure to injury aren’t being rewarded for their efforts, instead they’re being treated as disposable.
Back to Kamara. Right now, he is set to carry a salary cap hit north of $18.8 million into 2024 — with more than $7 million of it coming from his prorated signing bonus. He’ll have another $1 million roster bonus trigger on March 22, per Over The Cap, but the bulk of his payout comes from a $10.2 million base salary.

Moving Kamara before June 1, 2024 (either in a trade or release) saves the Saints just $1.6 million. Designating him a post-June 1 cut would bring $11.8 million in savings, but not until after that date. Waiting to trade him would do the same. But for the Saints to do that they’d still need to carry his $18.8 million cap hit on the books through free agency, the draft, and early-summer team practices.

So odds are that Kamara will agree to another restructure in 2024. That saves the team $8.1 million against the cap and guarantees him his roster spot. The big decision on his future with the team is still set for 2025, when his cap hit swells to a staggering $29 million (this restructure we’re proposing would put him over $30 million). At that point the Saints would need to choose whether to sign him to a new extension and create cap relief or cut bait altogether and save as much as $25 million in unguaranteed cash.

But none of this matters if Kamara doesn’t return to form. If he continues to decline they’ll move on from him without a second thought. Kamara peaked with 112.5 scrimmage yards per game in 2020 but that number has fallen in each of the subsequent years, to 102.8 in 2021 and just 92.5 in 2022. An upgrade at quarterback should help him become more of a threat on passing downs, and improved blocking will help him as a rusher, but at the end of the day Kamara needs to look more like his old self. The Saints drafted Kendre Miller this year as a long-term option in case Kamara isn’t on the team in a year or two. Hopefully it won’t come to that, but you never know. All that’s certain is that there are slim pickings on the open market for even star running backs. If all goes well, maybe Kamara can work something out with the Saints so he never has to experience it for himself.