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Started By
Message
FA prediction... paaaaaiiinnnnnn
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:44 pm
Luckily we have some depth to deal with losses:
Out:
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Bucs, 5 years, $26m
Mike Williams and Aurrellius (sp?) Ben are second year players. MW is Colston-esque, Ben currently sucks, but he can stretch the field like Devery. I think they would love to have a similar WR corps to our own in 2009, and Moore can teach the youngins some of the mental aspects of the game.
Roman Harper: Jacksonville Jaguars 5 years, $26m
Idea stolen from the Grantland article, but it makes sense. Their secondary sucks and they need to spend money.
Jermon Bushrod: Arizona Cardinals 4 years, $20m, $5m first year, $3m base + $5m roster bonus in year 2
Who the frick knows with this guy. They've been needing a LT for a while. Levi Brown is a RT all the way. Contract pays Bushrod solid money the first year and gives the Cards a nice out if he sucks. If he's adequate or better with a lesser QB behind him (Kolb), it's a fair price for both teams.
Johnathan Goodwin: Detroit Lions 3 years, $7m
I won't pretend to know which teams have shitty centers unless Miami lets Pouncey hike the ball to anyone instead of moving him to guard, but I know Detroit struggled along the OL. Goodwin is older, but coming off of a pro bowl year. Center is a pretty easy position to find talent at, though, and Tennant will be fine. Plus this guarantees that he won't have to play against Suh and Fairley.
Also gone:
-Hargrove: joining Goodwin? I know Detroit was interested when he was an RFA
-Sharper: could probably flirt with a one year, $2.5m deal with a team like Houston. No need to pay that for a backup
Staying:
Zack Strief: 3 year, $5m
Primary backup to BOTH positions, may be a starter this year at LT if Brown sucks. He's an important, unheralded player for this team, plus we don't want him to finally get that catch against us (or did he get one last year, I forget, I think he was overthrown in the endzone. frick you, Brees)
David Thomas: 2 year, $2.75m Should be cheap, and it's not like we don't run a shitload of 2 TE sets. Basically pays him a bit more than he made last year.
Jeff Charleston: 1 year, $850k
85% of Alex Brown's production for less than 1/3rd the price.
Remi Ayodele: 1 year, $850k
I liked him for us last season, and he seems completely under the radar. Will make an above average backup on the cheap, beat out those 5 or 6 DTs they added this offseason (excluding Rogers, of course), though I'd like to see that CFL fellow play.
Scott Shanle: 1 year, $850k
Deal with it. A subpar player, but he knows the system, can play all 3 positions equally lukewarmly, and does occasionally make plays. We have two uncertain players on the outside right now, and with the short offseason, Shanle is a smart keep. PS: I don't feel like looking up the exact new vet min numbers/years experience for these players, so guessing a bit.
Also staying:
Usama Young: cheap alternative to backup Jenkins, can step in at CB in a pinch.
Julius Jones: just seeing if you're reading this.
Out:
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Bucs, 5 years, $26m
Mike Williams and Aurrellius (sp?) Ben are second year players. MW is Colston-esque, Ben currently sucks, but he can stretch the field like Devery. I think they would love to have a similar WR corps to our own in 2009, and Moore can teach the youngins some of the mental aspects of the game.
Roman Harper: Jacksonville Jaguars 5 years, $26m
Idea stolen from the Grantland article, but it makes sense. Their secondary sucks and they need to spend money.
Jermon Bushrod: Arizona Cardinals 4 years, $20m, $5m first year, $3m base + $5m roster bonus in year 2
Who the frick knows with this guy. They've been needing a LT for a while. Levi Brown is a RT all the way. Contract pays Bushrod solid money the first year and gives the Cards a nice out if he sucks. If he's adequate or better with a lesser QB behind him (Kolb), it's a fair price for both teams.
Johnathan Goodwin: Detroit Lions 3 years, $7m
I won't pretend to know which teams have shitty centers unless Miami lets Pouncey hike the ball to anyone instead of moving him to guard, but I know Detroit struggled along the OL. Goodwin is older, but coming off of a pro bowl year. Center is a pretty easy position to find talent at, though, and Tennant will be fine. Plus this guarantees that he won't have to play against Suh and Fairley.
Also gone:
-Hargrove: joining Goodwin? I know Detroit was interested when he was an RFA
-Sharper: could probably flirt with a one year, $2.5m deal with a team like Houston. No need to pay that for a backup
Staying:
Zack Strief: 3 year, $5m
Primary backup to BOTH positions, may be a starter this year at LT if Brown sucks. He's an important, unheralded player for this team, plus we don't want him to finally get that catch against us (or did he get one last year, I forget, I think he was overthrown in the endzone. frick you, Brees)
David Thomas: 2 year, $2.75m Should be cheap, and it's not like we don't run a shitload of 2 TE sets. Basically pays him a bit more than he made last year.
Jeff Charleston: 1 year, $850k
85% of Alex Brown's production for less than 1/3rd the price.
Remi Ayodele: 1 year, $850k
I liked him for us last season, and he seems completely under the radar. Will make an above average backup on the cheap, beat out those 5 or 6 DTs they added this offseason (excluding Rogers, of course), though I'd like to see that CFL fellow play.
Scott Shanle: 1 year, $850k
Deal with it. A subpar player, but he knows the system, can play all 3 positions equally lukewarmly, and does occasionally make plays. We have two uncertain players on the outside right now, and with the short offseason, Shanle is a smart keep. PS: I don't feel like looking up the exact new vet min numbers/years experience for these players, so guessing a bit.
Also staying:
Usama Young: cheap alternative to backup Jenkins, can step in at CB in a pinch.
Julius Jones: just seeing if you're reading this.
13
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:45 pm to THRILLHO
Cut
Reggie Bush:
Pretty obvious. Frees up ~$8m.
Randall Gay:
Another obvious one. Saves $4m ($3.5m base and a seldom talked about $500k roster bonus).
Alex Brown:
I'm less certain about his status with the team than anyone. Will Smith is really fricking shite up with his suspension, as he'd be a sure cut if not for that 4 game stretch. Do you take the risk going out there with Charleston (assuming we extend him), two rookies, and Juneyah? I really think Jordan has an immediate impact, but they need to see a good bit from Charleston, Juneyah, and even Romeus to let him go. IMO, Charleston proves adequate and they see enough flash from one of the other two to go with it. PS: Charleston has also played both DE positions, so that helps.
NOT cut
Devery Henderson:
Changes if we keep Moore. Meachem,Colston, and Arrington are FAs next season. You do not put yourself in that position.
Extended:
(Won't necessarily come before the regular season starts)
Drew Brees: 5 year extension
Total: 6 years, $100m, $45m guaranteed
Gets $10-12m extra this year ($10m jumps to $20-22mm or so). Gets paid more than Brady, less than Manning, but Manning's franchise tag will be for about $16m, so again, the extra money Brees would get this year is important. Hoping this isn't a difficult process, would be surprised if he gives us a discount to make sure we keep the team together, but that's his right. Distributed salary wise like a "U", to allow a little flexibility for next season when things get nasty (Colston, Meachem, Ellis, Porter, Nicks are FA) and expecting the cap in 3-5 years to potentially be ~$15m more than it is now.
Tracy Porter: 4 year extension
Total: 5 years, $32m, $12m guaranteed
Greer is going to be a bit old when his deal runs out, so if we have to keep him, he probably will be at a reasonable price (he already is). But by then, he'll probably be more of a guy you put on possession WRs. Porter is a really good CB right now that I figure will get better. His injury troubles would keep him from getting the amount his skill level deserves. Extending him puts us in a situation where we can be in solid shape if one of the two youngsters turns out (PRob, Patrick), we'll be in good shape with Porter as our main guy at a still fairly young age. It's a risk/reward for a guy that could increase his value a decent bit with a good, healthy season, or see himself hurt again and signing a 1 year, $4m type deal to prove himself again in 2012. Also must consider that he never has to buy a drink in Louisiana when comparing Saints contract to that of other teams and, of course, that the instant $ would be HUGE for him as he's only accrued about $3-4m in his career. A $12m signing bonus + $4-6m base salary in 2011 would be tempting when compared to a ~$600k salary this season and risking injury.
NOT Extended
Carl Nicks:
Sorry, buddy. We have the highest paid guard in the game and too many other FAs coming up. It would suck losing him, but that's no sure thing. Let him play out this season, then franchise him (unfortunately, the franchise tag doesn't discern between the LT, RT, G, and C). If you can sign the other players you want with the remaining cap, keep him and negotiate. If not, deal him. We are beastly at finding OL in middle rounds, so they could keep him in 2012 while franchised, then deal him in 2013 and let new guy take over with a bit of experience. Actually would work out well for Nicks since he'd make good money for two years and still get his big contract at a young age, in his prime.
FA Signings
Gerald Sensabaugh: 3 years, $8m
Played in GW in Jacksonville, was being looked at before we got Sharper in 2009 (Sensabaugh has played both S positions. A pretty solid player. Would also look at that Peprah guy from GB. Was pretty solid for them when Burnett went out with an injury.
INB4
Reggie Bush:
Pretty obvious. Frees up ~$8m.
Randall Gay:
Another obvious one. Saves $4m ($3.5m base and a seldom talked about $500k roster bonus).
Alex Brown:
I'm less certain about his status with the team than anyone. Will Smith is really fricking shite up with his suspension, as he'd be a sure cut if not for that 4 game stretch. Do you take the risk going out there with Charleston (assuming we extend him), two rookies, and Juneyah? I really think Jordan has an immediate impact, but they need to see a good bit from Charleston, Juneyah, and even Romeus to let him go. IMO, Charleston proves adequate and they see enough flash from one of the other two to go with it. PS: Charleston has also played both DE positions, so that helps.
NOT cut
Devery Henderson:
Changes if we keep Moore. Meachem,Colston, and Arrington are FAs next season. You do not put yourself in that position.
Extended:
(Won't necessarily come before the regular season starts)
Drew Brees: 5 year extension
Total: 6 years, $100m, $45m guaranteed
Gets $10-12m extra this year ($10m jumps to $20-22mm or so). Gets paid more than Brady, less than Manning, but Manning's franchise tag will be for about $16m, so again, the extra money Brees would get this year is important. Hoping this isn't a difficult process, would be surprised if he gives us a discount to make sure we keep the team together, but that's his right. Distributed salary wise like a "U", to allow a little flexibility for next season when things get nasty (Colston, Meachem, Ellis, Porter, Nicks are FA) and expecting the cap in 3-5 years to potentially be ~$15m more than it is now.
Tracy Porter: 4 year extension
Total: 5 years, $32m, $12m guaranteed
Greer is going to be a bit old when his deal runs out, so if we have to keep him, he probably will be at a reasonable price (he already is). But by then, he'll probably be more of a guy you put on possession WRs. Porter is a really good CB right now that I figure will get better. His injury troubles would keep him from getting the amount his skill level deserves. Extending him puts us in a situation where we can be in solid shape if one of the two youngsters turns out (PRob, Patrick), we'll be in good shape with Porter as our main guy at a still fairly young age. It's a risk/reward for a guy that could increase his value a decent bit with a good, healthy season, or see himself hurt again and signing a 1 year, $4m type deal to prove himself again in 2012. Also must consider that he never has to buy a drink in Louisiana when comparing Saints contract to that of other teams and, of course, that the instant $ would be HUGE for him as he's only accrued about $3-4m in his career. A $12m signing bonus + $4-6m base salary in 2011 would be tempting when compared to a ~$600k salary this season and risking injury.
NOT Extended
Carl Nicks:
Sorry, buddy. We have the highest paid guard in the game and too many other FAs coming up. It would suck losing him, but that's no sure thing. Let him play out this season, then franchise him (unfortunately, the franchise tag doesn't discern between the LT, RT, G, and C). If you can sign the other players you want with the remaining cap, keep him and negotiate. If not, deal him. We are beastly at finding OL in middle rounds, so they could keep him in 2012 while franchised, then deal him in 2013 and let new guy take over with a bit of experience. Actually would work out well for Nicks since he'd make good money for two years and still get his big contract at a young age, in his prime.
FA Signings
Gerald Sensabaugh: 3 years, $8m
Played in GW in Jacksonville, was being looked at before we got Sharper in 2009 (Sensabaugh has played both S positions. A pretty solid player. Would also look at that Peprah guy from GB. Was pretty solid for them when Burnett went out with an injury.
INB4
This post was edited on 7/25/11 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:48 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
Julius Jones: just seeing if you're reading this.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:51 pm to THRILLHO
Payton and Brees love Lance Moore too much to let him leave. He may be our most valuable WR imo.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:52 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Buc
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:53 pm to Geauxld Finger
2nd
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:54 pm to Geauxld Finger
dont think we lose Moore, Harper, and Bushrod. Maybe 1 or 2 of these 3.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 3:56 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
Julius Jones: just seeing if you're reading this.
He's top priority IMO.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 4:15 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
Zack Strief: 3 year, $5m
Primary backup to BOTH positions, may be a starter this year at LT if Brown sucks.
I get he's valuable as a backup, but if he is our starter, we are in serious trouble. He's been here for like twenty years and has never been a starter outside of injury related situations. He's not going to become talented enough to start over this shortened preseason on the downside of his career slope. If Brown isn't ready, Bushrod will be back.
Remember he is a backup, meaning he can't beat out, Jonathan Stinchcomb and Jermon Bushrod. It's not like he has All-Pro's holding him back.
This post was edited on 7/25/11 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 7/25/11 at 4:25 pm to Mr. Wayne
I know that this really means NOTHING, but Bushrod was at my gmaws house few days ago and said he isnt going anywhere.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 4:52 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Bucs, 5 years, $26m
I'm glad this was the first line which saved me the trouble of reading the rest of this crap.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 5:02 pm to stonedbegonias
As others have said, I think there's no way we lose Harper, Moore, Goodwin AND Bushrod.
Maybe 1 or 2, but not all of them. I'd be shocked. In fact, I could see us letting Goodwin go, but the rest coming back.
Maybe 1 or 2, but not all of them. I'd be shocked. In fact, I could see us letting Goodwin go, but the rest coming back.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 5:05 pm to stonedbegonias
quote:I 2nd this notion!
I'm glad this was the first line which saved me the trouble of reading the rest of this crap
Posted on 7/25/11 at 5:40 pm to THRILLHO
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/25/11 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 7/25/11 at 5:45 pm to THRILLHO
there is no way in hell we lose Harper, Moore and Bushrod
if we lose all 3 Loomis should be fired on the spot.
Bushrod and Harper are must signs. I dont like Bushrod at all, but we dont have time to groom a guy like Charles brown to play LT.
And Moore is very important should we have to cut Bush for cap space. We cant lose both of those guys either. We can take the loss of 1, but not both
if we lose all 3 Loomis should be fired on the spot.
Bushrod and Harper are must signs. I dont like Bushrod at all, but we dont have time to groom a guy like Charles brown to play LT.
And Moore is very important should we have to cut Bush for cap space. We cant lose both of those guys either. We can take the loss of 1, but not both
Posted on 7/25/11 at 6:01 pm to THRILLHO
for what price is the key...
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Bucs, 5 years, $26m
-at that deal I'd go 50% likely gone. I think they ask Brees on him and tend to overpay for Lance more than any other FA. TB would fit for him. Anywhere with a young upcoming QB- Rams could bid on him big.
Roman Harper: Jacksonville Jaguars 5 years, $26m
-Jax makes a lot of sense. If he can score that he's definitely gone. I'm thinking Quintin Mikell, who I consider more complete than Harper, could go for cheaper than that cuz of age. I'm a DeAndre McDaniel fan too. What rookie wouldn't want to step into a starting job for a contender like the Saints? Harry Coleman!
Jermon Bushrod: Arizona Cardinals 4 years, $20m, $5m first year, $3m base + $5m roster bonus in year 2
-Really on the Busher! Who knows?! I think the swing factor on how hard they push for him is the evaluation of Charles Brown and Strief as ya noted.
Johnathan Goodwin: Detroit Lions 3 years, $7m
-I go 70% that someone is likely to far outbid NOLA for him similar to Fujita. I had Tennant with a lower 2nd/upper 3rd Rd grade and expect him to be good.
Also gone:
-Hargrove- dunno, he wasn't the ball of fire last year as in '09. Someone might bite. Otherwise he's valuable for playing inside and out.
-Sharper- someone like Texas with playoff potential and he'll go for that money or even less. Minimum to backup in NOLA vs. less than $1mil more for a bottom dragger then 50/50
Staying:
Zack Strief: 3 year, $5m
-I'd be shocked if he left
David Thomas: 2 year, $2.75m
-only some way wacky offer from someone else could lure him- which I cannot imagine
Jeff Charleston: 1 year, $850k
-definitely a better bang for the buck
Remi Ayodele: 1 year, $850k
-I think he can get more on the open market. With Rogers signed he has gotta see less snaps so I think more likely gone than stay. "Under the radar" for fans and writers but not NFL GMs.
Scott Shanle: 1 year, $850k
-As backup I think he'd be great. Can play SLB or WLB. He stays or they go after Rocky McIntosh.
Also staying:
Usama Young
-I'm ready to see him move on myseff
Julius Jones:
-Reggie stays he goes and vice versa
Lance Moore: Tampa Bay Bucs, 5 years, $26m
-at that deal I'd go 50% likely gone. I think they ask Brees on him and tend to overpay for Lance more than any other FA. TB would fit for him. Anywhere with a young upcoming QB- Rams could bid on him big.
Roman Harper: Jacksonville Jaguars 5 years, $26m
-Jax makes a lot of sense. If he can score that he's definitely gone. I'm thinking Quintin Mikell, who I consider more complete than Harper, could go for cheaper than that cuz of age. I'm a DeAndre McDaniel fan too. What rookie wouldn't want to step into a starting job for a contender like the Saints? Harry Coleman!
Jermon Bushrod: Arizona Cardinals 4 years, $20m, $5m first year, $3m base + $5m roster bonus in year 2
-Really on the Busher! Who knows?! I think the swing factor on how hard they push for him is the evaluation of Charles Brown and Strief as ya noted.
Johnathan Goodwin: Detroit Lions 3 years, $7m
-I go 70% that someone is likely to far outbid NOLA for him similar to Fujita. I had Tennant with a lower 2nd/upper 3rd Rd grade and expect him to be good.
Also gone:
-Hargrove- dunno, he wasn't the ball of fire last year as in '09. Someone might bite. Otherwise he's valuable for playing inside and out.
-Sharper- someone like Texas with playoff potential and he'll go for that money or even less. Minimum to backup in NOLA vs. less than $1mil more for a bottom dragger then 50/50
Staying:
Zack Strief: 3 year, $5m
-I'd be shocked if he left
David Thomas: 2 year, $2.75m
-only some way wacky offer from someone else could lure him- which I cannot imagine
Jeff Charleston: 1 year, $850k
-definitely a better bang for the buck
Remi Ayodele: 1 year, $850k
-I think he can get more on the open market. With Rogers signed he has gotta see less snaps so I think more likely gone than stay. "Under the radar" for fans and writers but not NFL GMs.
Scott Shanle: 1 year, $850k
-As backup I think he'd be great. Can play SLB or WLB. He stays or they go after Rocky McIntosh.
Also staying:
Usama Young
-I'm ready to see him move on myseff
Julius Jones:
-Reggie stays he goes and vice versa
Posted on 7/25/11 at 6:01 pm to stonedbegonias
quote:
I'm glad this was the first line which saved me the trouble of reading the rest of this crap.
LOL@!!! Everything is peachy. Lance Moore, Drew Brees, and everyone else will play for the Saints for free and we will never lose any key players and the whole team is going to sit in a treehouse and eat smores for all eternity. Maybe you and Meateye can go over to Saintsreport and join in on the circlejerk.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 6:08 pm to THRILLHO
prediction: largest roster change since '06
Posted on 7/25/11 at 6:10 pm to blueslover
That's going to happen with plenty of teams with the cap floor jumping so high.
Posted on 7/25/11 at 6:11 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
if we lose all 3 Loomis should be fired on the spot.
L.E. I know you have not been a big fan of Loomis but if teams with a huge pile of cash i.e. Tampa want to attack our FA's (3 above) I don't see him looking very smart in over paying for them.
I think Harper has the most value of the 3 on the market.
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