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Started By
Message
Why it's not time to panic or jump off the bandwagon
Posted on 11/4/18 at 6:34 am
Posted on 11/4/18 at 6:34 am
Reason #1, Elfrid Payton. Key team stats with Elfrid On court
DRtg 109.8 (that's even lower than Jrue's DRtg because not even Jrue can carry these tiny non defenders)
Ast% 64.1%
TO% 11.6
eFG% 55.8%
Key team stats with Elfrid Off court
DRtg 114.6 (again part of the difference is AD missing games too)
Ast% 56.9%
TO% 14.3%
eFG% 51.9%
The team assists, shoots and defends better with Payton on the court. I'm not saying he's a great player, he's just so much better than the 3 players they've tried to replace him with. Frazier, Clark and Jackson, have the worst, 2nd worst and 4th worst DRtgs on the team. We've seen it before, QPon for Salmons and Peak Norris Cole for Austin Rivers made huge differences in wins even though neither player was great.
Reason #2. The Big 3. Understandably many chose the Tigers over the Pels last night. What the box score won't tell you is the Pels almost managed to comeback in the game by finally deploying all 3 bigs at the same time. They cut a 21 point lead to 8 points in about 7 minutes. They just ran out of steam and time.
Holiday
Moore
Mirotic
AD
Randle
Only a 9 minute sample size but it looked pretty damned effective.
ORtg 133
DRtg 100
NetRtg 33
It started on defense and they all were playing very hard trying to comeback, but it was effective. The weakest link looked like Niko chasing around Belinelli, but look at the numbers, even that wasn't really a problem. Hopefully we'll start seeing this lineup more often to see what it can do.
DRtg 109.8 (that's even lower than Jrue's DRtg because not even Jrue can carry these tiny non defenders)
Ast% 64.1%
TO% 11.6
eFG% 55.8%
Key team stats with Elfrid Off court
DRtg 114.6 (again part of the difference is AD missing games too)
Ast% 56.9%
TO% 14.3%
eFG% 51.9%
The team assists, shoots and defends better with Payton on the court. I'm not saying he's a great player, he's just so much better than the 3 players they've tried to replace him with. Frazier, Clark and Jackson, have the worst, 2nd worst and 4th worst DRtgs on the team. We've seen it before, QPon for Salmons and Peak Norris Cole for Austin Rivers made huge differences in wins even though neither player was great.
Reason #2. The Big 3. Understandably many chose the Tigers over the Pels last night. What the box score won't tell you is the Pels almost managed to comeback in the game by finally deploying all 3 bigs at the same time. They cut a 21 point lead to 8 points in about 7 minutes. They just ran out of steam and time.
Holiday
Moore
Mirotic
AD
Randle
Only a 9 minute sample size but it looked pretty damned effective.
ORtg 133
DRtg 100
NetRtg 33
It started on defense and they all were playing very hard trying to comeback, but it was effective. The weakest link looked like Niko chasing around Belinelli, but look at the numbers, even that wasn't really a problem. Hopefully we'll start seeing this lineup more often to see what it can do.
2
Posted on 11/4/18 at 6:44 am to TigerinATL
Conversely, I will say this -- If your team is THAT reliant on a guy on a 1 year/3 million dollar contract, then it is all just a house of cards that will fall at some point. Basically, this team has to be 100% healthy to be good. Take out one jenga piece and it becomes a complete mess. Thats not how it works for really good teams.
Payton Jrue and AD aren't all going to give you 80 games. And we haven't even seen yet what this team would be without Moore, and I am terrified to see what that means. More minutes for Wes? Solo? Frank? Clark? Thats a nightmare.
I think you are right with Payton, but the fact that he is so important should be a knock against this team, not a reason "not to panic"
Payton Jrue and AD aren't all going to give you 80 games. And we haven't even seen yet what this team would be without Moore, and I am terrified to see what that means. More minutes for Wes? Solo? Frank? Clark? Thats a nightmare.
I think you are right with Payton, but the fact that he is so important should be a knock against this team, not a reason "not to panic"
Posted on 11/4/18 at 6:54 am to Crewz
quote:
this team has to be 100% healthy to be good.
I do believe that's the official motto of the Dell Demps Era.
quote:
the fact that he is so important should be a knock against this team, not a reason "not to panic"
It clearly is a knock against this team, look at the losses while he's been out, but do we have any reason to think he's going to miss an extensive number of games this year? He doesn't seem to have that bad of an injury history.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 6:58 am to Crewz
100% agree here man.
To go 0-5 with guys nicked up is extremely discouraging. Good teams don’t do that.
I think the 4-0 start was a mirage and this team just isn’t very good.
To go 0-5 with guys nicked up is extremely discouraging. Good teams don’t do that.
I think the 4-0 start was a mirage and this team just isn’t very good.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 7:19 am to Fun Bunch
The reason "good teams" can absorb an injury and continue winning is that their bench is filled with above-average players who took less money to play for them.
We either havent been able to attract these guys, or they are simply unwilling to come to NOLA without being overpaid.
Either way - that's not the story of Dell demps, but rather the story of New Orleans sports
We either havent been able to attract these guys, or they are simply unwilling to come to NOLA without being overpaid.
Either way - that's not the story of Dell demps, but rather the story of New Orleans sports
This post was edited on 11/4/18 at 7:20 am
Posted on 11/4/18 at 7:21 am to TigerinATL
The Pelicans are going through their most brutal stretch of the season. Would have been tough regardless of injuries.
I think people are now discouraged after last game because of how they looked. Unfortunately, these last couple road games (most winnable only in terms of teams they are playing) are after a long stretch of games. Is it unimaginable for a team to not have their legs and be tired after this stretch? We have seen a similar script last season.
This is all part of a grueling NBA schedule. We need more of a sample size to better analyze this team and their components. NBA teams have games like last night at end of road trips. Especially when they have been undermanned and play at a high pace.
I think people are now discouraged after last game because of how they looked. Unfortunately, these last couple road games (most winnable only in terms of teams they are playing) are after a long stretch of games. Is it unimaginable for a team to not have their legs and be tired after this stretch? We have seen a similar script last season.
This is all part of a grueling NBA schedule. We need more of a sample size to better analyze this team and their components. NBA teams have games like last night at end of road trips. Especially when they have been undermanned and play at a high pace.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:10 am to PelicanFever
It's not that they lost. It's how they looked in the loss. Losing games - even five in a row - can be written off because of schedule, cold shooting, bad luck, etc. But they looked HORRIBLE last night. Not just the results, but the process.
Ball movement was terrible, defenive communication was non existent. Lack of diverse skill sets were on full display. If Spurs had one of those fluke got games or Pels got great shots and were cold, that's one thing. But last night, the Pels were straight trash
Ball movement was terrible, defenive communication was non existent. Lack of diverse skill sets were on full display. If Spurs had one of those fluke got games or Pels got great shots and were cold, that's one thing. But last night, the Pels were straight trash
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:16 am to Crewz
What did you think of the all 3 bigs lineup? The main thing that stood out to me is they were all busting their arse on defense. But they were also in a big hole and I wonder how effective the unit would be without that sense of urgency.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:27 am to TigerinATL
It might work. I mean, there are Band-Aids and the schedule will get easier. But you have to be a CONTENDER at the end of the year to AD to extend. The bar isn't making the playoffs or barely missing it. You gotta be a fantastic team to keep him. How realistic is it to go from what we saw last night to elite?
This post was edited on 11/4/18 at 8:27 am
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:32 am to Crewz
Isn't it possible that the team looked like trash because of the end of a road trip? We have seen this story many times before. It was more than just playing bad, they looked like they were going through the motions and were lifeless. Now, is that a sign of things to come (team giving up ala wizards) or just a game where they had no legs? Yesterday reminded me of last year's game in philly.
I need to see more data to better evaluate what this team is. I am not going to overreact after one game where I know all teams have that sort of game a couple times a year where they look like they have nothing in the tank. Hopefully, that is all it was.
Instead of Bazemore, I wonder if the hawks would trade lin and prince. May need to make a trade to improve the wing situation and ball handling depth. We have limited assets in improving both so if use assets on a big contract, we can probably only improve one area in need.
I need to see more data to better evaluate what this team is. I am not going to overreact after one game where I know all teams have that sort of game a couple times a year where they look like they have nothing in the tank. Hopefully, that is all it was.
Instead of Bazemore, I wonder if the hawks would trade lin and prince. May need to make a trade to improve the wing situation and ball handling depth. We have limited assets in improving both so if use assets on a big contract, we can probably only improve one area in need.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:37 am to Crewz
For starters, we need to see MVP level AD. We have seen nothing like that version of AD.
I am getting tired of his talk about wanting to be the most dominant player. Show me!
Someone needs to wake his arse up!
I am getting tired of his talk about wanting to be the most dominant player. Show me!
Someone needs to wake his arse up!
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:40 am to PelicanFever
For me, it's not one game. The way Randle has been playing since game 3 has been a huge red flag for me. The bench has been terrible all year. There are five guys I trust and it's hard to beat good teams with just five, and then when an injury or two happens to one or multiple of those five, you're fricked
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:41 am to Crewz
The Pelicans season was considered lost midway through last year. They got better, way better after that. It's a long season.
If you look at each of these games in a vacuum, you wouldn't be surprised if they lost them.
Warriors on the road? Loss.
Second night of a back to back? Loss.
Third game in four days? Loss.
On the road without your superstar? Loss.
They need to right the ship over the next two weeks (losing to the Bulls and/or Suns with a full roster is bad), but it's a long-arse season. They'll straighten it out.
All a week like this does is emphasize our margin of error. Losses against shite teams will be far more catastrophic to our playoff chances than an October loss to the Jazz without AD.
If you look at each of these games in a vacuum, you wouldn't be surprised if they lost them.
Warriors on the road? Loss.
Second night of a back to back? Loss.
Third game in four days? Loss.
On the road without your superstar? Loss.
They need to right the ship over the next two weeks (losing to the Bulls and/or Suns with a full roster is bad), but it's a long-arse season. They'll straighten it out.
All a week like this does is emphasize our margin of error. Losses against shite teams will be far more catastrophic to our playoff chances than an October loss to the Jazz without AD.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:47 am to Sheep
Again, you are talking about it in very simple terms - wins and losses. I am not
A win doesn't necessarily mean you played well, and a loss doesn't mean you played poor.
Turn the scoreboard off in last night's game and just watch how they played. It is not an exaggeration to say it was abysmal.
A win doesn't necessarily mean you played well, and a loss doesn't mean you played poor.
Turn the scoreboard off in last night's game and just watch how they played. It is not an exaggeration to say it was abysmal.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:49 am to Crewz
Read my posts prior to yesterday. I was as glass half full as anyone. Last night was a reality check
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:50 am to Crewz
I'm not saying they haven't looked like garbage, they certainly have. It seems like they only prepared to play one way this season - fast as hell with Payton.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:10 am to Crewz
Randles play has been discouraging. He has not shown he can be an anchor on both sides of the floor for 2nd units, which they need.
If he can't be that guy, then the Pels are in big trouble
Also, there has to be some recalibrating of the team in terms of expectations of performance. Games 1 and 2 were awesome, but likely their peak and not sustainable in many ways
If he can't be that guy, then the Pels are in big trouble
Also, there has to be some recalibrating of the team in terms of expectations of performance. Games 1 and 2 were awesome, but likely their peak and not sustainable in many ways
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:12 am to Sheep
Randle is my biggest concern. He has been playing like a poor mans Boogie since the Clippers game. Just puts his head down and goes to the rim and it either ends in turnovers or points. But even when its points, it isn't helping because it is killing the flow of the offense because guys are just standing around and the ball isn't moving.
And I say poor mans Boogie because Boogie was a beast on the defensive glass and took charges on that end. Randle doesn't move and gets outboard because he is too small. If he doesn't turn it around, the ceiling is very limited for this team
And I say poor mans Boogie because Boogie was a beast on the defensive glass and took charges on that end. Randle doesn't move and gets outboard because he is too small. If he doesn't turn it around, the ceiling is very limited for this team
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:21 am to Crewz
quote:
How realistic is it to go from what we saw last night to elite?
You've regularly talked about getting that wing that allows everyone to slot into the right rotation making a difference and I don't think you've been wrong about that. They don't need a star level talent addition to get there, they just need to be able to stop giving minutes to Solo, Frazier, Jackson, etc. Even Miller is a negative unless it's a night he's hitting 4 or more 3s. If Clark can get back to being a good enough backup guard, Bazemore/Deadmon does solve a lot of problems and that's supposedly the fallback trade. Demps has made solid additions with in season moves 3 of the last 4 years.
I don't think you can judge this team based on 5 games where AD missed 3 games and played below average returning from injury in the 2 he did play. Especially when Payton was out as well. This is the definition of a small sample size that is compromised by unusual data points.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:39 am to TigerinATL
Small sample size refers to stats. Not style. Again, nothing in the stats or win-loss column worries me. Its HOW they are playing. And it started in the Clippers game. So, before the losing streak.
The iso ball is killing the offense and the defense has never been good. I can't even recall a single quarter this season since the Houston game where I saw the effort and communication that would lead to an average D.
Yes, a wing could help if everyone stays healthy. But my hopes of this becoming an elite team have gone out the window. Almost solely because Randle is showing his true colors.
The iso ball is killing the offense and the defense has never been good. I can't even recall a single quarter this season since the Houston game where I saw the effort and communication that would lead to an average D.
Yes, a wing could help if everyone stays healthy. But my hopes of this becoming an elite team have gone out the window. Almost solely because Randle is showing his true colors.
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