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re: Trey Murphy shouldn't get the max

Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:50 am to
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12940 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 7:50 am to
SGA didn't play for a terrible team. That's being disingenuous. Besides the point is that players being boxed into a role limits their scoring potential especially when a team already have 3 scoring options ahead of you. No one is talking about being a #1 option nor do you need to be in order to get a rookie mex extension. It happened before and it will happen again in the future. So stop moving goal posts.

As far as Maxey goes, he was already given the keys before Harden got there and was pretty much a 2nd option at the end of his second year. So he wasn't included for a reason.

But the idea that Trey has to be a #1 option or a 23ppg to get the max is silly and it only exists in your mind.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:36 am to
quote:

The cap 2 years from now is projected to be $156 million.
Most places I look, it's $165-171 ish. Looks like around $166 projected on Spotrac.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:37 am to
quote:

So, Cam Johnson is getting $27 million with incentives. His base is $24.5 million and his contract kicked in this year. Johnson averaged 15.5 pts 4.4 reb on 47% FG and 40.4% 3PT. Trey last year averaged 14.5 pts, 3.6 reb on 48% FG and 40.6% 3PT. Trey played slightly more minutes per game (2 minutes). I prefer Trey, but it is not like Cam is terribly worse.

Apples to oranges comparing year 2 Trey to year 3 Cam.


Now do year 2 Trey to year 2 Cam, it's not close.
Posted by MrBarry
Member since Sep 2023
432 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:43 am to
quote:

a. Gobert was a multi-time DPOY when he got his super max




he shouldn't be a max player.
DRTG last 4 years regular season
101
109
103
101

DRTG last 4 years in playoffs
117
112
116
117

Did the Pistons give 4x DPOY Ben Wallace a max contract? he averaged $5M/yr over there, then went to Chicago where they gave him $15M/yr for just 3 years, which was about 50% of what a max contract was at that time.
You'd have to be an idiot to give a guy a super max who literally has no offensive skills.


quote:

b. The NBA is all about projecting value, especially on the first deal after the rookie contract. You think TMac had skins on the wall to justify his huge deal with Orlando? James Harden and Houston? etc.


And that's what's stupid about the NBA at times.
Harden was a rare case in that he was able to show what he was capable of even though he was stuck in that 3rd role and only averaged 17ppg.
It was quite obvious TMac was a special player, and Orlando took a chance on him.
The Jazz gave Andre Kirilenko a max contract too after averaging 15ppg through his first 4 years, then he ceased to be a good player after that.
Jason Richardson got a max contract, but never was able to ascend to that top dog level. Really good player, but not worth of a max. He was traded 2 years later for the #8 pick and #36 pick.
Tobias Harris ring a bell?
Is Siakam really a max worthy player?


there are plenty of examples of it not working out. And i'm not saying those guys getting the max and it not working out aren't good players, they just aren't max players.
I just wish we reserved max money for the true top players in the league.

Which one of these guys deserves max money?
Cade Cunningham
Jalen Green
Evan Mobley
Scottie Barnes
Franz Wagner
Sengun
Trey

Have any of them proven they can be the best or 2nd best player on a contender?



There needs to be more tiers of max contracts.
the rookie extension max should be 20% of the cap. If you make an all nba team in one of those 1st 5 years, then it can be 25%, and if you make it twice or more then it can be 30%
Stop giving out ridiculous contracts to people who haven't proven it yet. Guys who aren't even in the conversation to make an all-star team shouldn't be getting max contracts.





and just to be clear, what we saw from Trey against Washington was a max player. The only reason i'm saying he shouldn't get max money, is b/c he hasn't proven it just yet to me, but he most certainly can prove it this year, even as the third guy.
What I want to see from Trey is more creation off the dribble when he's run off the 3 point line, maintaining that 40% 3 point shooting, and most importantly being a good rebounder and showing some rim protection, something i thought he's actually done really well at to start this year.

And Cam Johnson, who's a good comparison for Trey, makes 19% of the cap in his first year ($24M), then 17% then 14% and 14%. Sort of a weird contract that reduces the annual amount over time, but that's a contract Trey should be around for the time being, with the ability to show he deserves just a bit more. 20% of the Cap is more than enough for what Trey is providing
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29817 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 8:51 am to
quote:

SGA didn't play for a terrible team. That's being disingenuous.


What I meant was there was no stud players there to hold him back from being a star, and it was his rookie year anyway. No one saw the star he turned into after his rookie year. It was disingenuous to use him as an example.


quote:

But the idea that Trey has to be a #1 option or a 23ppg to get the max is silly and it only exists in your mind.


It’s silly to expect a guy you pay the maximum amount of money to, to be the best player on the team, or at least the second best?
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12940 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:02 am to
Again stop moving goal posts. We're talking about scoring potential and how being a 4th+ option limits that ceiling and does not allow the player to showcase their abilities.

I bet nobody saw Giannas as a star player after his rookie year. Same thing with Fox, Garland, Curry, Bane, Brunson, etc. See how stupid that sounds?
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 9:03 am
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466924 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:12 am to
quote:

he shouldn't be a max player.

He's borderline, but, again, "max player" doesn't mean you have to be on the most elite status as a player.

Superstars like LBJ, Anthony Davis, Durant, etc. are severely underpaid. They should probably be making 75-100% more than they do, but the max constrains their actual value. Again, this leaves a lot of money that has to be spent on guys like Gobert.

quote:

And that's what's stupid about the NBA at times.

They understand the juice is worth the squeeze.

quote:

It was quite obvious TMac was a special player

Based on what, exactly?

His scoring in TOR was 7.0, 9.3, and 15.4. FT% never even hit 75%. His best PER was slightly over 20.

quote:

The Jazz gave Andre Kirilenko a max contract too after averaging 15ppg through his first 4 years, then he ceased to be a good player after that.

And the Magic gave Grant Hill an elite salary after being an top tier player and he ceased to be a good player after that.

Nobody has claimed risk doesn't exist.

quote:

Is Siakam really a max worthy player?

Clearly. In a truly free market he may be making more than the current max.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466924 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:13 am to
quote:

It’s silly to expect a guy you pay the maximum amount of money to, to be the best player on the team, or at least the second best?

That depends on how good your 1/2 are.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:20 am to
quote:

It’s silly to expect a guy you pay the maximum amount of money to, to be the best player on the team, or at least the second best?

Yes
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:25 am to
quote:

That depends on how good your 1/2 are.

Bingo

Compare him to CJ. We paid CJ a couple of seasons ago but also as a veteran, which is going to be on a different pay scale than a young guy.

When it comes time to pay Trey, you pay Trey based on his value and how well you project him to be as a player. You don't look at what CJ has, compare Trey to CJ then decide if Trey should get more or less than CJ to make sure your 2nd best player is paid 2nd most, 3rd best player is paid 3rd most, etc. That's not how it works since players are getting paid at different times under different salary caps at different points in their careers.



Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5570 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 9:49 am to
Guys that can take more than 7 3’s a game and make more than 40% of those shots are pretty rare.

There are currently 6 guys doing that league wide this season.

5 guys did it last season (Curry, Klay, Heild, Porter Jr., Bane).

Given that Trey is not a black hole in other areas like Heild, if you think Trey is that level shooter you give him whatever contract he commands to keep that skill set in this small market - in my opinion.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36483 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:17 am to
quote:

Apples to oranges comparing year 2 Trey to year 3 Cam.


Now do year 2 Trey to year 2 Cam, it's not close.

On top of that, Cam entered the league 2 years older than Trey.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:21 am to
quote:

On top of that, Cam entered the league 2 years older than Trey.

Good catch

Year 2 Cam was 24 years old and averaged 9.8ppg

Year 2 Trey at 22 years old averaged 14.7ppg




Or another way to put it with the same 2 year difference, Trey is the same age now as Cam Johnson was his rookie year, so it wouldn't really be unfair to compare Trey's stats this season to Cam's rookie season stats.
This post was edited on 12/15/23 at 10:22 am
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36483 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:27 am to
On top of that, stats don't even show everything. Trey has shown way more pop than Cam.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73964 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:29 am to
I’d look more towards say a Devin Vassell’s trajectory and subsequent payday when fishing around for what a possible rookie extension may look like
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112626 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:30 am to
quote:

On top of that, stats don't even show everything. Trey has shown way more pop than Cam.

Correct

Cam is 27 years old now, and so far this season, he's having a worse season than year 2 Trey at 22 years old.

Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36483 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:32 am to
Even then, Trey is 4-5 inches taller than Vassell. His height, shooting, and athleticism make his potential very high.
Posted by Balsamic_duck
Member since Jun 2017
4356 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:33 am to
I think you're looking at 5 years 150m for Trey. Every single team in the league drools over players like him. The pels better pay whatever the frick it takes to keep him.
Posted by supe12sta12z
Tiger Town
Member since Apr 2012
12940 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:51 am to
I think he's closer to Bane prior to this season than he is to Vassell. Just not as advanced as Bane onball yet but Bane is two years older at the same time.
Posted by MrBarry
Member since Sep 2023
432 posts
Posted on 12/15/23 at 10:53 am to
i'll just agree to disagree.
I don't like paying people max money b/c i think they might be a max player in a year or two. It's a silly risk that shouldn't be necessary to take.
I also think it's obvious when you see someone who's capable of becoming even better than they already are.
Devin Booker on bad Phoenix teams stands out to me.
Jamal Murray who by year 3 was their top scorer and moved Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris significantly down the pecking order of that team.
What Bancero is doing in Orlando is obvious.
What Lamelo is doing in Charlotte is obvious.
Anthony Edwards .

Then i look at a guy like Andrew Wiggins who was given the max b/c he was the #1 pick and had nice stats on crappy teams, but did you ever see that ability to take over games from Wiggins? Lamelo and Banchero showed that even on teams that aren't winning much, and Edwards has done the same. Cade Cunningham is going to get a max extension b/c he was the #1 pick and has nice stats, but are you seeing anythign from him that would say he is a clear #1 guy on a really good team in the very near future? Is Jalen Green going to get a max extension b/c he was the #2 pick and averages a lot of points on a team being carried by Sengun?


It's not like i'm advocating for Trey to not get paid. I just don't think max contracts should be given to every Tom, Dick and Harry and I'd like to see Trey's progression this year before i definitely say he should get the max or maybe under the max.



and to reply to SFP about paying the top players more,
Max NBA players are paid better than just about anyone on the planet in regards to sports except for the soccer players playing in Saudi Arabia.
max MLB players make $40M/yr.
Burrow is goign to average $55M/yr. Mahomes $45M/yr.
Haaland at Manchester City is making $58M this year, second highest in the EPL is De Bruyne at $39M, and 3rd is Salah at $23M.

Tatum is going to average $67M/yr with his new deal.
Trey is going to get $30M/yr at least. There aren't guys that are 3rd in the rotation in MLB making $30M/yr. There's actually only 4 teams that even pay their #2 guy more than $20M/yr, and there's only 4 teams that pay their 3rd highest paid player at least $27M
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