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re: this f****** C position - AD and ryno aren't a good fit
Posted on 12/19/13 at 4:35 pm to RonBurgundy
Posted on 12/19/13 at 4:35 pm to RonBurgundy
quote:
Why would we trade for another big to get touches in the post.
I thought Monroe could work in either the high or low post, but I just checked his shot chart from last year and he's pretty bad unless he's at the basket. This year doesn't look much better. The overwhelming majority of his shots are again at the basket.
I was assuming that combining a High/Low post game with his passing and he an AD would work well, but if he's only good at the basket it really wouldn't work like you said.
Posted on 12/19/13 at 4:52 pm to brmark70816
quote:
If his shooting was opening so many lanes for guys. Maybe it's one of those things you can't really track..
Are you for real?
Posted on 12/19/13 at 10:11 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Are you for real?
I don't understand that graph and what it means. What are the two different categories? Is it saying something about 0-3ft? Is it ft and fg%?
Posted on 12/19/13 at 10:19 pm to brmark70816
The first 2 columns are the percentage of shots taken (shot distribution) from 0-3 feet without and with Anderson. The last 2 columns is the FG% from that range without and with Anderson. Basically once Anderson returned they started taking significantly more shots at the rim and they started making them at a higher rate. In other words the spacing that Anderson provides opens up the rim for attack.
Posted on 12/19/13 at 10:30 pm to TigerinATL
Ok, I get it now. I didn't make the connection at first.
I guess they would have to. If Anderson is always on the perimeter that shifts everybody else closer to the rim.
quote:
Basically once Anderson returned they started taking significantly more shots at the rim and they started making them at a higher rate. In other words the spacing that Anderson provides opens up the rim for attack.
I guess they would have to. If Anderson is always on the perimeter that shifts everybody else closer to the rim.
This post was edited on 12/19/13 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 12/19/13 at 10:32 pm to brmark70816
First and third columns are our percentage of shots that draw free throws and field goal percentage within 3 feet of the goal without Anderson. The second and fourth column are the same with Anderson on the floor.
Our slashers shoot significantly higher percentage and get fouled a good bit more with Anderson on the floor.
Our slashers shoot significantly higher percentage and get fouled a good bit more with Anderson on the floor.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 5:24 am to corndeaux
That is a strange statistic. It's measuring layups basically. The most significant change in FG% was Jrue Holiday's. He's not a slasher. He doesn't shoot well from under the basket and he's currently at under 48% from 0-8 ft, so if he had been taking 38% of his shots under the basket since anderson's been back and been hitting 66% of them, his fg% should be much higher from 0-8 ft than it was a month ago. I'd like to see the difference it makes for shots that aren't layups.
Where is the source for that? EG's current shot chart shows a 47% mark from 0-8 ft, so they're either getting more layups at that range and shooting much worse from a couple of more feet out, or, what i'd like to chalk the statistic up to is the fact that they could be taking more shots at the rim because they're rebounding more without a big man there.
This was the pelicans shot chart as a whole before the pistons game:
This was Eric Gordon's:
If slashers were benefiting as much as you like to pretend, things should be looking better since then, since anderson has been playing 40+ minutes per game, right? They're not.
Pels now:
EG now:
Tyreke is the main slasher and his fg% has barely changed in your chart, even on layups. That chart also didn't take into account what happens when smith is on the floor, as he is also a spacer.
Here is Greg Monroe's shotchart this season:
If you look at this, you notice that the 23 year old shoots most of his shots from the paint, which any big man should imo. If you watch him play, however, you notice he shoots a lot from farther than 3 feet out. He has a lot of hooks and other skilled post shots in his repertoire. We don't have anyone like that one our team. AD doesn't have a back to the basket game, he faces up and attacks like a guard when he posts up. Their styles are very different. The high low ability is presents by just watching him play. Shot charts can only tell you so much, but what they can tell you is that monroe shoots a lot higher percentage at 0-8ft than any of our slashers and he does so consistently and can be counted on to hit shots down the stretch.
Looking at monroe this season and the pels this season, their shots would actually balance the floor pretty well. That left bank shot from a little over 8 feet out is an area that the pels have struggled with.
Where is the source for that? EG's current shot chart shows a 47% mark from 0-8 ft, so they're either getting more layups at that range and shooting much worse from a couple of more feet out, or, what i'd like to chalk the statistic up to is the fact that they could be taking more shots at the rim because they're rebounding more without a big man there.
This was the pelicans shot chart as a whole before the pistons game:
This was Eric Gordon's:
If slashers were benefiting as much as you like to pretend, things should be looking better since then, since anderson has been playing 40+ minutes per game, right? They're not.
Pels now:
EG now:
Tyreke is the main slasher and his fg% has barely changed in your chart, even on layups. That chart also didn't take into account what happens when smith is on the floor, as he is also a spacer.
Here is Greg Monroe's shotchart this season:
If you look at this, you notice that the 23 year old shoots most of his shots from the paint, which any big man should imo. If you watch him play, however, you notice he shoots a lot from farther than 3 feet out. He has a lot of hooks and other skilled post shots in his repertoire. We don't have anyone like that one our team. AD doesn't have a back to the basket game, he faces up and attacks like a guard when he posts up. Their styles are very different. The high low ability is presents by just watching him play. Shot charts can only tell you so much, but what they can tell you is that monroe shoots a lot higher percentage at 0-8ft than any of our slashers and he does so consistently and can be counted on to hit shots down the stretch.
Looking at monroe this season and the pels this season, their shots would actually balance the floor pretty well. That left bank shot from a little over 8 feet out is an area that the pels have struggled with.
This post was edited on 12/20/13 at 5:47 am
Posted on 12/20/13 at 7:33 am to MrBlue105
A couple of things-
Layups are good. Taking more of them is great. In a vacuum, layups, 3s (particularly corner 3s) and FTs are the best shots to take. Increasing not only the volume of layups, but also the conversion rate is huge.
Some numbers I ran from NBA.com just now. Before Anderson, 32.5% of their shots were at the rim, converted at 54%. 38% of their shots were Mid range, at a 38% clip. Since Anderson has been back, 38% of their shots are at the rim, converted at 57%. 27% of their shots from mid range, hit at 43%.
Anderson has done nothing but make the offense much better. There is no denying this- stats, eye ball test, whatever.
0-3 feet is the RA- I like to adjust the shot chart to show RA, Paint Non RA, Mid, Corner 3, Above the Break 3. Paint shots, included in 0-8 are not great shots in a vacuum. They are similar to mid range.
The shot charts on NBA.com cant be split as far as I can tell. What you're looking at is entire season numbers. If you know how to split them, please share
I dont know where the author got his numbers, but I encourage you to ask him on his website. Here is that link and another one talking about much of the same stuff.
Yes, Monroe is good. Does he make the offense better than Anderson? I highly doubt that. He's not even that much better defensively.
Layups are good. Taking more of them is great. In a vacuum, layups, 3s (particularly corner 3s) and FTs are the best shots to take. Increasing not only the volume of layups, but also the conversion rate is huge.
Some numbers I ran from NBA.com just now. Before Anderson, 32.5% of their shots were at the rim, converted at 54%. 38% of their shots were Mid range, at a 38% clip. Since Anderson has been back, 38% of their shots are at the rim, converted at 57%. 27% of their shots from mid range, hit at 43%.
Anderson has done nothing but make the offense much better. There is no denying this- stats, eye ball test, whatever.
0-3 feet is the RA- I like to adjust the shot chart to show RA, Paint Non RA, Mid, Corner 3, Above the Break 3. Paint shots, included in 0-8 are not great shots in a vacuum. They are similar to mid range.
The shot charts on NBA.com cant be split as far as I can tell. What you're looking at is entire season numbers. If you know how to split them, please share
I dont know where the author got his numbers, but I encourage you to ask him on his website. Here is that link and another one talking about much of the same stuff.
Yes, Monroe is good. Does he make the offense better than Anderson? I highly doubt that. He's not even that much better defensively.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 7:47 am to corndeaux
quote:
Does he make the offense better than Anderson?
I think Monroe is capable of drawing doubles, and creating easy offense for others. The shot chart does concern me a bit because he needs to draw the double far enough away from the basket to get AD easy looks. But before looking at the shot chart I thought he did that and Mr Blue assures me that's the case. He will be better defensively than Anderson because even if they have equally bad on ball defense, he's got very good rebounding numbers so should help on the defensive boards.
The real question is how much better defensively is he than Anderson, because he'll probably end up making $4-$5 million more per year. Even if he's equal to Anderson on offense, if it's only a slight upgrade on defense you just spent $5 million to stay at basically the same place. The people that want to trade Anderson seem convinced he can be replaced moneyball style with cheap 3 point specialists. I really think the Jimmy Graham vs. Lance Moore analogy I gave earlier fits Anderson vs. guys like Morrow pretty well. If you trade Anderson you need to get significantly better.
This post was edited on 12/20/13 at 7:49 am
Posted on 12/20/13 at 10:55 am to TigerinATL
Does the team have to have a 3 point specialist? I don't think every team has them. As long as you have a few players that shoot them at a above average clip, why would you need one? The bad part is the team, outside of Anderson, doesn't really have great shooters.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 11:12 am to brmark70816
quote:
Does the team have to have a 3 point specialist?
The NBA is shifting based on advanced statistics. With the camera systems in all the arenas this shift to game planning based on what the data says will only escalate. 3 pointers and shots at the rim are more efficient so teams are skewing towards those shots. If your opponent shoots more efficiently than you do, you are more likely to lose. Also, 3 point shooting isn't the only way to create space, but it's probably one of the cheaper ways to create space. Players that can move defenders where you want by drawing a double team are expensive, players that can move defenders by effectively shooting 3s are much cheaper. The league is changing and you either have to keep up, or be so different that you start the next paradigm shift.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 11:44 am to TigerinATL
quote:
The people that want to trade Anderson seem convinced he can be replaced moneyball style with cheap 3 point specialists.
Mind boggling that people don't understand just how much of a weapon he is.
You don't move Anderson and expect your offense to be better- maybe more traditional, but that will not be better even with Greg Monroe.
The question, as it has been for some time, is can Davis develop fast enough to make the defensive pairing respectable? So far the answer is no. But the offense with the best 5 has been absurdly good, so it hasn't mattered.
But hey, the offense just doesnt look right every possession. Trade everyone, fire everyone.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 12:38 pm to corndeaux
Is the best 5 holiday/gordon/evans/anderson/Davis good enough to get this team to the playoffs every year and be a championship contender? If you believe it is, then you just want to keep the status quo and watch it grow. If you don't (like me and some others), it's just going to drive you crazy and it will seem like it'll never get better. I'm sure the solution is somewhere in the middle. But it's a long road ahead of them..
Posted on 12/20/13 at 12:55 pm to brmark70816
quote:
If you don't (like me and some others), it's just going to drive you crazy and it will seem like it'll never get better.
OR you can realize that it's better to be patient than crazy
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
You do not build a team with 2 $10 million 6th men. This roster as it currently stands can't be the long term goal.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 1:26 pm to TigerinATL
If the long term goal is to move Davis to Center and have Anderson start at Power Forward is Anderson a guy that can play 36+ minutes on a consistent basis and continue to play as well? Whenever Anderson was coming off the bench and playing around 30 minutes a game he was playing lights out. But since the Chicago game where his minutes have been dramatically increased he hasn't played nearly as well.
His stats for November: 19 ppg, 5 rpg on 49% fg, 51% 3fg in 30.5 mpg (only one game above 36 minutes)
His stats since the Chicago game haven't been nearly as good.
20 ppg, 6.7 rpg on 36% fg, 33% 3fg, in 38.14 mpg (only one game below 36 minutes)
I know that shooters are really streaky and that this could just be a bad streak for Anderson. But I wonder if fatigue has something to do with Anderson's inefficiency over the last 8 games.
His stats for November: 19 ppg, 5 rpg on 49% fg, 51% 3fg in 30.5 mpg (only one game above 36 minutes)
His stats since the Chicago game haven't been nearly as good.
20 ppg, 6.7 rpg on 36% fg, 33% 3fg, in 38.14 mpg (only one game below 36 minutes)
I know that shooters are really streaky and that this could just be a bad streak for Anderson. But I wonder if fatigue has something to do with Anderson's inefficiency over the last 8 games.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 2:29 pm to takeflight23
Use last season for reference and you'll probably find a trend.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 2:39 pm to brmark70816
No one is saying the team is set to be a contender as is. They need a better option at the 3, an able big body in the middle, more from Gordon or his salary, and perhaps a new coach. I would not be shocked if 2 of the other 4 are not with the team by the end of next year.
Same time this team is still in the playoff hunt right now. Demps didn't assemble an odd roster of young vets to flip them because they didn't figure things out in the first couple of months.
Taking a step back from the grind of the season helps here. Almost no one goes from high lottery to contender in one summer. This team was never going to be an exception. It's a process. Its on Davis's timetable. As good as he's been, he can still be better. They are looking to figure out what they have in him and what will work with him. May not be as fast as we want, but very few teams get to skip steps.
Same time this team is still in the playoff hunt right now. Demps didn't assemble an odd roster of young vets to flip them because they didn't figure things out in the first couple of months.
Taking a step back from the grind of the season helps here. Almost no one goes from high lottery to contender in one summer. This team was never going to be an exception. It's a process. Its on Davis's timetable. As good as he's been, he can still be better. They are looking to figure out what they have in him and what will work with him. May not be as fast as we want, but very few teams get to skip steps.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 3:46 pm to MrBlue105
The Monroe trade is only going to make us better on paper and for name sake purposes. IMO Davis is a Monroe 2.0. If you make that trade with the pistons you go for drummond (if possible which I'm sure is unlikely). I don't like the idea of trading Anderson. The guy plays his arse off and despite his ability to shoot 3's he always seems to be under the basket banging for boards. We need muscle for Gordon possibly a hickson, or horford... Asik is not the answer. I wouldn't have minded gortat. But even if we can get cap space and a draft pick..... 2014 will have some FA bigs worth paying for.
Posted on 12/20/13 at 7:18 pm to Pmurda3
AD CANNOT play center! This has been proven time and time again. He needs to stay away from the bigger boys if he wants to last in this league.
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