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re: The Sixers are closing the gap. Pels in danger of falling outta the top 4
Posted on 3/27/25 at 3:11 am to 3PieceSpicy
Posted on 3/27/25 at 3:11 am to 3PieceSpicy
When folks called me a idiot or a doomer for making this thread they were having a blind spot of how committed to the tank of how other teams will be compared to our team.
That's my fricking point. Our team has NOT shown the ability do the non moral slutty style tank that other teams like Toronto, Philly, Utah are doing right now and regardless if we are bad team WE ARE STILL TRYING TO WIN GAMES vs teams. Of course we will get smacked vs better teams, but against tanking teams or teams that may overlook us we may win too many games.
I don't wanna do the "I'm right all along" spill but for folks to call me and idiot for thinking this as a possibility is being arrogant to think the 4th spot is locked up
That's my fricking point. Our team has NOT shown the ability do the non moral slutty style tank that other teams like Toronto, Philly, Utah are doing right now and regardless if we are bad team WE ARE STILL TRYING TO WIN GAMES vs teams. Of course we will get smacked vs better teams, but against tanking teams or teams that may overlook us we may win too many games.
I don't wanna do the "I'm right all along" spill but for folks to call me and idiot for thinking this as a possibility is being arrogant to think the 4th spot is locked up
1
Posted on 3/27/25 at 5:25 am to Silverfoxx
quote:
don't wanna do the "I'm right all along" spill but for folks to call me and idiot for thinking this as a possibility is being arrogant to think the 4th spot is locked up
You can get off the cross, nobody attacked you. People are just debating your math and doomsday scenarios. If the Sixers and Nets go winless the rest of the season, and the Pelicans squeeze out 3 more wins, then you are right. We would be tied. If we win 4, we would drop to 6th.
I don't think we win 3 more games, much less 4. I also think that both the Sixers and Nets will slip up and win a game each. Otherwise they would finish with massive losing streaks (Sixers 15 games and Nets 14 games). It's possible, but just not likely.
I don't know what you would like the team to do to make sure they lose more. Maybe penalize players for making a shot, bonuses for turnovers? They are guys on our team fighting for their NBA careers. They don't care about our draft slot or lottery odds..
Posted on 3/27/25 at 10:52 am to brmark70816
For me I want the team to shut down CJ, Z, and KO. To me that would communicate that they are serious about tanking. They have an analytics team they can see which players contribute to winning. Whoever does shut them down lol
Posted on 3/27/25 at 11:34 am to Silverfoxx
quote:
They have an analytics team they can see which players contribute to winning. Whoever does shut them down lol
We haven't won all season with those guys playing anyway. McCollum is playing for a new contract. You don't think dropping 40 in game (a loss) helps his value? Same with Zion. We can still lose with him playing 24mpg. We need him engaged, especially going into the offseason.
We aren't good. We are going to lose, a lot. There has to be a balance here. Plus, I hate to be this guy, at 4th place, our greatest odds are we land at #6 selection. If we fall to 5 or 6, those odds fall to pick #7. I know that is frustrating, but it's overwhelming the case..
Posted on 3/27/25 at 11:54 am to brmark70816
quote:
We aren't good. We are going to lose, a lot. There has to be a balance here. Plus, I hate to be this guy, at 4th place, our greatest odds are we land at #6 selection. If we fall to 5 or 6, those odds fall to pick #7. I know that is frustrating, but it's overwhelming the case..
I guess that's one way of downplaying finishing at 4th place. Perhaps a better way...of stating the value of finishing at 4th place...is to say that at finishing 4th...we have a 55.3% chance of landing a 1-5 selection...which is more than twice the chances of landing the 6th selection (25.7%).
Stats are funny things aren't they? You can interpret them several ways...depending on what point you are trying to make. As for me...I want that 4th place finish...and I think it's worth the "effort"...to hold on to it.
JMO: I COULD be wrong. (But, I'm not)
Posted on 3/27/25 at 11:54 am to brmark70816
If we are 4, our odds are high that we end up in the top 4. Something like 70%.
The further we drop past 4th, those odds drop and we are more likely getting 5th-7th because we not only don’t end up top 4 but are more likely to get jumped by someone.
The further we drop past 4th, those odds drop and we are more likely getting 5th-7th because we not only don’t end up top 4 but are more likely to get jumped by someone.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:03 pm to teke184
quote:
If we are 4, our odds are high that we end up in the top 4. Something like 70%.
The further we drop past 4th, those odds drop and we are more likely getting 5th-7th because we not only don’t end up top 4 but are more likely to get jumped by someone.
We're on the same page at wanting to finish 4th...but honesty compels me to say...
At 4...we have a 48.1% of getting a top 4 selection...a 7.2% chance of getting the 5th selection...a 25.7% chance at getting the 6th selection...a 16.8% shot at a 7th selection and a 2.2% chance at ending up with the 8th selection.
Having said that...there is still solid value...to holding on to that 4th place finish.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:23 pm to Dinky Mulberry
The issue you face being out of the top 4 is that it starts to eliminate the next possible slots if you don't get a top 4 pick.
For instance, if you don't get in the top 4 slots and are:
7th, you cannot get 5th or 6th.
8th, you cannot get 5th, 6th, or 7th.
9th, you cannot get 5th-8th.
You eliminate your chances at the decent lower slot going from 4th to 7th+ and its doesn't even consider teams behind jumping ahead.
For instance, if you don't get in the top 4 slots and are:
7th, you cannot get 5th or 6th.
8th, you cannot get 5th, 6th, or 7th.
9th, you cannot get 5th-8th.
You eliminate your chances at the decent lower slot going from 4th to 7th+ and its doesn't even consider teams behind jumping ahead.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:24 pm to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
At 4...we have a 48.1% of getting a top 4 selection...a 7.2% chance of getting the 5th selection...a 25.7% chance at getting the 6th selection...a 16.8% shot at a 7th selection and a 2.2% chance at ending up with the 8th selection.
I've seen the table. Our best odds are at #6. That should be the expectation and where it's slotted. You can't select a range of other numbers and add them together. Put your money on one number, which are you betting? #1 is 12.5%, #6 is 25.7%. That's more than double we get #6.
If you are going to add ranges, teams 5 and 6 also have over 40% chances of landing a top 4 pick. It's a weird way of trying to put a positive spin on it..
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:25 pm to supe12sta12z
(no message)
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:29 pm to brmark70816
(no message)
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:41 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
The issue you face being out of the top 4 is that it starts to eliminate the next possible slots if you don't get a top 4 pick.
For instance, if you don't get in the top 4 slots and are:
7th, you cannot get 5th or 6th.
8th, you cannot get 5th, 6th, or 7th.
9th, you cannot get 5th-8th.
You eliminate your chances at the decent lower slot going from 4th to 7th+ and its doesn't even consider teams behind jumping ahead.
Exactly...and well said. On another note...I think our main "problem" will be with the 76ers and not so much....with the Nets. The 76ers just have SO much more to lose if they happen to fall outside the top 6 selection...the Nets, worst case....would probably only drop one spot in the final selection process.
This post was edited on 3/27/25 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 3/27/25 at 12:49 pm to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
Exactly...and well said. On another note...I think our main "problem" will be with the 76ers and not so much....with the Nets. The 76ers just have SO much more to lose if they happen to fall outside the top 6 selection...the Nets, worse case....would probably only drop one spot in the final selection process.
We are not falling to 7th or 8th. We will be in between 4-6. At those spots, any of the 3, we have less than a 50% chance to pick in the top 4. Go look at the math..
Posted on 3/27/25 at 1:07 pm to brmark70816
Lets look at the history of 6 with the new odds. 6th has been slotted once at 6, twice at 7, twice at 8 and once at 9th. Zero top 4 slots.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 1:17 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
Lets look at the history of 6 with the new odds. 6th has been slotted once at 6, twice at 7, twice at 8 and once at 9th. Zero top 4 slots.
You are trying to play probabilities and trends like roulette. The odds are the odds. You can't factor in history. Plus they have changed the odds/table recently. So you have to throw all of that out. It comes down to what is more likely, the rest is just luck. If we finish at 4, we are most likely to select 6th, with less than a 50% chance to select in the top 4. Those odds do not change dramatically at the 5th or 6 place finish..
Edit.. sorry it was confusing how I left it previously..
This post was edited on 3/27/25 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 3/27/25 at 1:25 pm to brmark70816
The odds between the 4th slot and the 6th slot changes drastically after the 4th pick. 6th slot cannot get the 5th pick. And the 6th pick can get as low as the 10th pick.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 1:46 pm to brmark70816
quote:
If we finish at 4, we are most likely to select 6th, with less than a 50% chance to select in the top 4. Those odds do not change dramatically at the 5th or 6 place finish..
Why say something this stupid?
4th place gets a 48.1% chance at a top 4 pick.
4th place has a 25.7% chance of landing in the 6 spot.
Do you know how math works? Just b/c our highest odds at a singular pick is at 6 doesn't mean that's were we are most likely to select. We are most likely to select a top 4 pick, which is what everyone cares about.
5th place has a 40% chance at top 4
6th place has a 38% chance at top 4.
6th place has a 52.2% chance of picking 7th or worse.
4th place has a 19% chance of picking 7th or worse.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 2:23 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Why say something this stupid?
Why are you coming in this hot in a discussion about math?
quote:
4th place gets a 48.1% chance at a top 4 pick.
I know. I said that. Doesn't that also mean, at 4th place, you have a 51.9% chance to pick out of the top 4?
So what's a greater %? Top 4 or out of the top 4?
quote:
Do you know how math works? Just b/c our highest odds at a singular pick is at 6 doesn't mean that's were we are most likely to select
It is the highest %, which makes it most likely. You are just adding a bunch together to compare it against one. It doesn't work that way. In 4th place we are mostly like to pick #6. Am I wrong?
quote:
We are most likely to select a top 4 pick, which is what everyone cares about.
No, we are not (see above).
I want a top 4 pick. I actually want the 1st pick. But we can't control that..
Posted on 3/27/25 at 3:29 pm to Dinky Mulberry
Sadly, with 9 games left, there are many winnable games. 5 games are at home. I am sure we will beat Charlotte at home. Twice against the Bucks with no Lillard and Giannis has missed games lately. I would not be surprised if Giannis is rested in at least one of the two. Brooklyn is winnable as they have lost 5 straight. The Heat is winnable. Thunder, Lakers and Warriors hopefully are easy losses. The Clippers is in LA, so hopefully will be difficult. Time to shut down Z and CJ for sure.
Posted on 3/27/25 at 8:52 pm to NOSHAU
After beating the 76ers... AT Philadelphia...the Wizards return home...and lose 162-109 to the Pacers. The NBA is such a joke.
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