- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Statistical Output as a Product of Skill vs Opportunity/Necessity
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:10 pm
This was inspired by some discussion on this board as well as other media, centered around stats as a measurement of player talent, as well as All-Star and accolade discussion, along with discussions on who the “better player” is in a given discussion
Skill is of course a difficult thing to measure, so to differentiate opportunity what I want to focus on is how a given player statistically performs vs the output of the 3rd option to 10th option of their team.
For a Pelicans example, BI or Zion’s opportunity would be directly measured as the inverse of the production of the rest of the team (x100 for readability)
I chose 3rd option onwards because I feel like most teams in the league who are actively pursuing playoff basketball and aren’t in a rebuild, have 2 pretty clear top 2 guys.
So let’s look at the top scorers in the league
1. Embiid (34.6)
2. Doncic (33.7)
3. Giannis (31.6)
4. Shai (31.5)
5. Durant (29.6)
6. Fox (28.3)
7. Young (27.8)
8. Tatum (27.5)
9. Mitchell (27.2)
10. Curry (27.1)
11. Edwards (26.8)
12. Booker (26.4)
13. Brunson (26.0)
14. Maxey (25.9)
15. Jokic (25.5)
Now let’s compare that to the opportunity rankings on those teams as well as some other potential playoff teams
Opportunity scores:
1. Minnesota: 1.44
2. Philadelphia: 1.43
3. OKC: 1.41
4. Sacramento: 1.37
5. Dallas: 1.34
6. Milwaukee: 1.33
7. Lakers: 1.32
8. Golden State: 1.29
9. Denver: 1.27
10. Phoenix: 1.26
11. Clippers: 1.25
12. Boston. 1.21
13. Atlanta: 1.15
14. Indiana: 1.14
15. Cleveland: 1.08
15. New Orleans: 1.08
16. Miami: 1.05
Skill is of course a difficult thing to measure, so to differentiate opportunity what I want to focus on is how a given player statistically performs vs the output of the 3rd option to 10th option of their team.
For a Pelicans example, BI or Zion’s opportunity would be directly measured as the inverse of the production of the rest of the team (x100 for readability)
I chose 3rd option onwards because I feel like most teams in the league who are actively pursuing playoff basketball and aren’t in a rebuild, have 2 pretty clear top 2 guys.
So let’s look at the top scorers in the league
1. Embiid (34.6)
2. Doncic (33.7)
3. Giannis (31.6)
4. Shai (31.5)
5. Durant (29.6)
6. Fox (28.3)
7. Young (27.8)
8. Tatum (27.5)
9. Mitchell (27.2)
10. Curry (27.1)
11. Edwards (26.8)
12. Booker (26.4)
13. Brunson (26.0)
14. Maxey (25.9)
15. Jokic (25.5)
Now let’s compare that to the opportunity rankings on those teams as well as some other potential playoff teams
Opportunity scores:
1. Minnesota: 1.44
2. Philadelphia: 1.43
3. OKC: 1.41
4. Sacramento: 1.37
5. Dallas: 1.34
6. Milwaukee: 1.33
7. Lakers: 1.32
8. Golden State: 1.29
9. Denver: 1.27
10. Phoenix: 1.26
11. Clippers: 1.25
12. Boston. 1.21
13. Atlanta: 1.15
14. Indiana: 1.14
15. Cleveland: 1.08
15. New Orleans: 1.08
16. Miami: 1.05
4
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:10 pm to Terrific Tales
Notes:
Overall, the trend seems to strongly suggest that there is a really high correlation between opportunity and scoring, but what does that mean?
Well, at least in my opinion, it means that statistical output on less deep rosters is inflated quite a bit, and that comparing direct counting stats between players on different teams is often not very proper or accurate
Outliers:
Wolves: The best explanation for the Wolves as to why they have such a high opportunity index despite Edwards nor Kat being equivalently high in scoring, is that Minnesota’s offense is simply not very good, and there are less points to go around
Heat: The Heat’s opportunity index is incredibly low, but this likely is largely due to the fact that due to Injuries, top scorers Herro (who was injured for the first part of this season) and Butler (who has been injured most of the time Herro has been back) have not played much together, and so both actually have relatively high opportunity, although the index does not reflect it
Suns: Despite Durant being so high on the scoring list, the Suns opportunity index is relatively low, but similar to the heat, this is likely due to injury, as the Suns have barely played any games with their top scorers healthy
Lakers: The opportunity score is surprisingly high considering the Lakers have 0 scorers in the top 15, but when you consider that Anthony Davis and Lebron James are 16th and 17th respectively, it makes a lot more sense
Overall, the trend seems to strongly suggest that there is a really high correlation between opportunity and scoring, but what does that mean?
Well, at least in my opinion, it means that statistical output on less deep rosters is inflated quite a bit, and that comparing direct counting stats between players on different teams is often not very proper or accurate
Outliers:
Wolves: The best explanation for the Wolves as to why they have such a high opportunity index despite Edwards nor Kat being equivalently high in scoring, is that Minnesota’s offense is simply not very good, and there are less points to go around
Heat: The Heat’s opportunity index is incredibly low, but this likely is largely due to the fact that due to Injuries, top scorers Herro (who was injured for the first part of this season) and Butler (who has been injured most of the time Herro has been back) have not played much together, and so both actually have relatively high opportunity, although the index does not reflect it
Suns: Despite Durant being so high on the scoring list, the Suns opportunity index is relatively low, but similar to the heat, this is likely due to injury, as the Suns have barely played any games with their top scorers healthy
Lakers: The opportunity score is surprisingly high considering the Lakers have 0 scorers in the top 15, but when you consider that Anthony Davis and Lebron James are 16th and 17th respectively, it makes a lot more sense
This post was edited on 1/8/24 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:14 pm to Terrific Tales
This is not how I would suggest correlating variables. Additionally this has no hypothesis on the way the scoring is occurring.
Teammate uncontested FG% when a player is on the court.
Team 2pt FG% vs player contested 3pt field goal %
Teammate uncontested FG% when a player is on the court.
Team 2pt FG% vs player contested 3pt field goal %
This post was edited on 1/8/24 at 9:16 pm
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:23 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
This is not how I would suggest correlating variables. Additionally this has no hypothesis on the way the scoring is occurring. Teammate uncontested FG% when a player is on the court. Team 2pt FG% vs player contested 3pt field goal %
I think you kind of missed the point
Like for example, if you added a CJ McCollum to the 76ers, Joel Embiid would not average 34.6. He just wouldn’t
Does that mean that if Joel Embiid got another 20 PPG scorer he would be a worse player? No
But his counting stats would go down, and therefore people would say he had a worse year, but I think that’s pretty objectively the wrong way to look at it
That was the point of this post
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:28 pm to Terrific Tales
You forget Embiid had Harden last season?
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:40 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
You forget Embiid had Harden last season?
I mean that really only proves the point, since his numbers are up from last year now that Harden is gone
Just to make sure:
Philadelphia Opportunity Index 22-23:
1.31
Joel Embiid stats 22-23 vs 23-24
-1.5 points
-1.8 assists
-1.6 rebounds
I mean it’s not perfect but it pretty much checks out
This post was edited on 1/8/24 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:42 pm to Terrific Tales
Not really. you're reaching.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:49 pm to Terrific Tales
Well maybe I am a Kobe fan and love low efficiency stat padders. Just kidding
Anyone who can score a ton of points on high efficiency in the NBA is an offensive stud. I don’t really care who they play with. I mean the Clippers basically went out and said FU to Ingram and shut his shite down. I mean we can say some of these teams could have weaker teams, but if that is the case they could spare more defenders to shut down the alpha. I would look at comparing more situational stats and how their production improves others. If a stud player is creating a ton of wide open 3pt shots then that would be an interesting statistic regardless if the teammates are good shooters.
It is all about efficiency. If you are super efficient then volume should be going up. Also a stud’s production going down probably is an indication of a reduced skillset on the team as they don’t have a robust of a game. Lebron went to Miami and retooled his game because Wade couldn’t play off ball. Now Lebron can basically do it all as a scorer/distributor/off ball guy.
Anyone who can score a ton of points on high efficiency in the NBA is an offensive stud. I don’t really care who they play with. I mean the Clippers basically went out and said FU to Ingram and shut his shite down. I mean we can say some of these teams could have weaker teams, but if that is the case they could spare more defenders to shut down the alpha. I would look at comparing more situational stats and how their production improves others. If a stud player is creating a ton of wide open 3pt shots then that would be an interesting statistic regardless if the teammates are good shooters.
It is all about efficiency. If you are super efficient then volume should be going up. Also a stud’s production going down probably is an indication of a reduced skillset on the team as they don’t have a robust of a game. Lebron went to Miami and retooled his game because Wade couldn’t play off ball. Now Lebron can basically do it all as a scorer/distributor/off ball guy.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 10:01 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
Not really. you're reaching.
I’m not
You’re ignoring that last year Tyrese Maxey was a 20 PPG with another 20 PPG guy in James Harden
This year Maxey is a 26 PPG guy. Add another 20 PPG guy to that team and there is absolutely 0 chance he averages 34.
I would bet every dollar I have on it
Posted on 1/8/24 at 10:06 pm to Terrific Tales
You're making baseless claims again. An alpha scorer like Embiid can get his stats whenever he wants. Using words like impossible and 0 chance is just comical.
It will always be the robin and role players who takes a step back when an alpha wants to increase his production. You're confusing choice with ability.
It will always be the robin and role players who takes a step back when an alpha wants to increase his production. You're confusing choice with ability.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 10:16 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:Embiid's usage rate and shots per game are down.
You're making baseless claims again. An alpha scorer like Embiid can get his stats whenever he wants. Using words like impossible and 0 chance is just comical.
It will always be the robin and role players who takes a step back when an alpha wants to increase his production. You're confusing choice with ability.
When KD went to the Warriors, both his and Steph's shots and usage went down.
When Lebron went to Miami, both his and Wade's shots and usage went down.
Posted on 1/8/24 at 10:41 pm to shel311
No Shel you don’t get it an alpha like Embiid doesn’t have to exist within a team offense or game plan.
He just magically “gets” his stats and it has nothing to do with players around him being lower usage and having lower scoring than other role players on other teams
He just magically “gets” his stats and it has nothing to do with players around him being lower usage and having lower scoring than other role players on other teams
Posted on 1/8/24 at 11:02 pm to Terrific Tales
Outside of Joker, Embiid is one of the most unstoppable forces we've seen since Shaq. But he can do it on all 3 levels while being dominant in the paint. That allows him to pick and choose his statistical output. Their offense will always revolve around him and the ball will be in his hands frequently so it's natural that he can put up the kind of numbers he WANTS.
Now compare that to both Ingram and Zion who needs the right conditions to put up big stats. Zion isn't a 3 level scorer and BI doesn't take anywhere near enough 3s which limits their individual statistical output. Then the fact that both guys like to play in the same space, it makes it hard to cohesively maximize their output together when they share the floor. Using CJ as an excuse is lame as CJ's usage is the lowest it's been since his 2nd year in the league. Much much lower than his last two seasons here.
Now compare that to both Ingram and Zion who needs the right conditions to put up big stats. Zion isn't a 3 level scorer and BI doesn't take anywhere near enough 3s which limits their individual statistical output. Then the fact that both guys like to play in the same space, it makes it hard to cohesively maximize their output together when they share the floor. Using CJ as an excuse is lame as CJ's usage is the lowest it's been since his 2nd year in the league. Much much lower than his last two seasons here.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 2:01 am to supe12sta12z
quote:
Outside of Joker, Embiid is one of the most unstoppable forces we've seen since Shaq. But he can do it on all 3 levels while being dominant in the paint. That allows him to pick and choose his statistical output. Their offense will always revolve around him and the ball will be in his hands frequently so it's natural that he can put up the kind of numbers he WANTS.
The offense absolutely revolves around him.
If he had another high skill all star caliber player, call him player X, that scores 20 PPG what do you think would happen?
A. Embiid gets less shots as a result of more possessions that would have gone to Embiid and Maxey over role players going to Player X instead. This results in a decrease in Embiid’s stats accross the board. Philadelphia’s PPG go up by a few
B. Embiid’s stats stay exactly the same and of course since he can get his stats regardless, player X’s 20 PPG are purely additive to Philadelphia, and the 76ers PPG goes up by 20 minus the average of whatever role player he replaced
Like use your brain brother
Posted on 1/9/24 at 6:38 am to Terrific Tales
why didn’t you just say “counting stats bad” and be done with it?
Posted on 1/9/24 at 9:17 am to Terrific Tales
Stats always require context to be understood properly.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 9:28 am to Terrific Tales
I understand what you are saying here and there is truth to it.
But there is also truth to Zion being extremely overweight and out of shape this season, also leading to his marked decline in his efficiency and scoring.
Despite playing better the past 14 days or so, he just hasn’t given anywhere near an all star effort on either side of the ball. In fact, we often play better when he is not on the floor this season.
But there is also truth to Zion being extremely overweight and out of shape this season, also leading to his marked decline in his efficiency and scoring.
Despite playing better the past 14 days or so, he just hasn’t given anywhere near an all star effort on either side of the ball. In fact, we often play better when he is not on the floor this season.
Posted on 1/9/24 at 12:34 pm to 3PieceSpicy
If you thought that I did this just to push some Zion agenda, I didn’t
I like Zion and think he is way overhated, but I did this because of years of watching people go “this guy’s averaging 27/8/8, he HAS to be better than the guy averaging 24/6/6”
And I just don’t think that’s true. So I wanted to show how strong the correlation is between a player not having a ton of scorers around them and increased statistical performance
If I put them on a graph I’m pretty sure it would be close to linear, especially if I accounted for some other variables like the overall quality of a teams offense/number of possessions a game
I like Zion and think he is way overhated, but I did this because of years of watching people go “this guy’s averaging 27/8/8, he HAS to be better than the guy averaging 24/6/6”
And I just don’t think that’s true. So I wanted to show how strong the correlation is between a player not having a ton of scorers around them and increased statistical performance
If I put them on a graph I’m pretty sure it would be close to linear, especially if I accounted for some other variables like the overall quality of a teams offense/number of possessions a game
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News