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Message
re: Someone Defend Willie’s Coaching
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:12 pm to Pistol44
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:12 pm to Pistol44
quote:But that hasn't actually happened this season.
You can assign Val 28 minutes but we've seen he'll get pick and rolled off the court long before the 28 minute mark.
Val has played 28 minutes or more 18 times this season. In those 18 games, Val is +141 which is a +7.8 per game, which is very good.
Val is winning his minutes when he plays 28 or more.
Further, in those 18 games where Val plays 28 or more minutes, only 3 times has he had a negative plus/minus.
quote:It's an answer, but it's the wrong answer.
ence Coach Green's problem, no real answers aside from Nance
Since the AS Break:
Nance: +0.9
Val: +3.0
I can't find anything in the actual data that supports more Nance minutes, more Nance 2nd half minutes and more Nance finishes than Val. The only "reason" seems to be the the coach just prefers it.
2
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:14 pm to shel311
quote:
I can't find anything in the actual data that supports more Nance minutes, more Nance 2nd half minutes and more Nance finishes than Val. The only "reason" seems to be the the coach just prefers it.
In fairness, plus minus is flawed. It doesn't take account for lineup, what the score is, what point/situation in the game they are inserted, stuff like that.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:16 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:This is where I keep annoying Pels Talk by repeating myself for the 700th time lol.
I would agree. While he actually does well when he plays with Zion, he'd be better off playign more staggered minutes without him
The most ideal scenario is Nance starts games and the 2nd half(or Zion at the 5) and other than closing games, we limit the number of minutes Val plays with BI/CJ/Zion together.
When all 3 of this dudes are on the court, we won't run shite through Val, he's less effective. If we ran Val more with bench units, his minutes could ultimately remain the same, but his usage goes up.
Then we could close games with whatever is working, Val or the Zion/small ball 5.
Another data point:
Zion/Val 2 man lineup this season: +5.0
Zion/Nance 2 man lineup this season: -2.6
Again, I can't find any data to support more Nance and less Val with Zion.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:19 pm to SaintEB
quote:But again, where is the data to support we're better with Nance then?
In fairness, plus minus is flawed. It doesn't take account for lineup, what the score is, what point/situation in the game they are inserted, stuff like that.
Indivudally, Val is better with better stats. Team wise, the team is better with Val than Nance.
What's the data one can point to since the AS Break that says THAT is why Nance is playing more than Val and closing games?
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:22 pm to shel311
quote:
in those 18 games where Val plays 28 or more minutes, only 3 times has he had a negative plus/minus
And that's the rub, there is a reason he only has played 28+ minutes in 25% of Pels games. I'd wager a majority of those games were not against contending teams. You could say Coach Green has a bias towards Val and see if playing him more against top competition will get you a different answer than what we've seen in the past three years..... We've seen this movie.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:25 pm to Pistol44
quote:I'll ask again, show me the data that tells us Nance is better and the team is better with Nance. Until someone shows me that data, the answer to the reason why Val's only played 28+ minutes in 25% of games is simply because the coach is making a bad decision to play the inferior player that fits the coach's scheme.
And that's the rub, there is a reason he only has played 28+ minutes in 25% of Pels games.
quote:How's the current movie with Nance getting the minutes working out? Answer - Worse than when Val is in the game.
You could say Coach Green has a bias towards Val and see if playing him more against top competition will get you a different answer than what we've seen in the past three years..... We've seen this movie.
Show me the data that tells us the team is better with Nance.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:32 pm to SaintEB
quote:
They should go all in for KAT in the offseason. He give you an outside shooting presence and rebounding.
100% agree, or Markannen.
I think if you tried to get either of them, you're going to have to give up Trey, and I think i'd do that. Trey's never going to start here with BI/Herb/Zion in the starting lineup.
I also think b/c BI signed a max contract, but not a max extension, he isn't a designated max player. You can only have 2 designated max rookie extensions, which Zion and KAT are on. I think that's right. The NBA CBA is unbelievably complicated.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:37 pm to shel311
quote:
Show me the data that tells us the team is better with Nance
Pels about .600 since ASB when Nance started seeing his minutes tick up. Slightly higher than pre break. Again, not a Val v Nance thing, just think its more of a scheduling advantage and neither gets you over the hump to be a finals threat. Hence the call to distributing more minutes to non-center lineups. Maybe Val: 16 minutes, Nance 14 minutes, Center by committee 18 minutes.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:48 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
They should go all in for KAT in the offseason
I think you don't have to spend a ton of money to fix the center position. You replace the outside shooting with a vertical threat and it opens things up for Zion and BI. Lost opportunity missing out on Gafford.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:49 pm to Pistol44
quote:THis is pretty silly considering, again, the Pels are better when Val is on the court than Nance.
Pels about .600 since ASB when Nance started seeing his minutes tick up
And Nance is playing more with the starters, so it's hard to argue lineups. He's starting 2nd halves, he's closing.
quote:But that's not the right way to look at it. Just because neither will win us a title doesn't mean we just choose willy nilly which one will play. Choose the one that gives you the best chance of maxing out winning. At this point, there's no logical argument that it's Nance over Val.
ance thing, just think its more of a scheduling advantage and neither gets you over the hump to be a finals threat.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:06 pm to shel311
quote:
Pels about .600 since ASB when Nance started seeing his minutes tick up
This is pretty silly considering, again, the Pels are better when Val is on the court than Nance
Its not silly, its the Pels record. Pels haven't dropped off a cliff and neither are they world beaters at this point. Again, a lot of angst on this board is based on the schedule not the product. Nance, with all his shortcomings, plays the position the way Coach Green wants it to be played. He is very system oriented. Again, I am no small-ball fan but I can see Coach Green leaning more into non center lineups if that is the system he is instilling.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:24 pm to Pistol44
quote:If we win our next game, we will have a higher win% when BI does not play this season. Does that mean we're better without BI? You don't get to pick and choose when to apply the logic here, not if the intent is to make logical arguments.
Its not silly, its the Pels record.
quote:But one is statistically better than the other and that same one has the Pels playing better when he's not he court and worse when the other guy is on the court.
Pels haven't dropped off a cliff and neither are they world beaters at this point.
quote:Not me, process vs results, I've always said that.
Again, a lot of angst on this board is based on the schedule not the product.
quote:And we are a worse team when that happens, and we are a better team when Nance is on the bench
Nance, with all his shortcomings, plays the position the way Coach Green wants it to be played. He is very system oriented
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:40 pm to Pistol44
Another thing is, Nance missed 1 game post AS Break, so we actually have a worst win% in games since the AS Break(11-8 record and .578 win%, not 12-8 and .600 that was stated) when Nance plays compared to the rest of the season, so back to my original question...show me the data that says we play better when Nance is the main guy at C because the one you presented isn't really accurate, and we're actually worse since the AS break when Nance plays compared to the rest of the season.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:46 pm to shel311
quote:
But again, where is the data to support we're better with Nance then?
I'm not disagreeing with you. Just that plus/minus is flawed. Its way more nuanced than just how many points scored (or not) during their time on the floor.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:52 pm to shel311
quote:
Nance missed 1 game post AS Break, so we actually have a worst win% in games since the AS Break(11-8 record and .578 win%, not 12-8 and .600 that was stated
Your arguing with yourself Shel. Not a matter of who's played better, its the play from the position and its influence on the team becoming a title contender. That's what a lot of folk view as the expectation for this team.
You can squabble with Coach Green's choice of play style but the choice of centers has been dictated by that, particularly post ASB as you note. Pels are at .600 with 7 games left so it has not been entirely unsuccessful.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:57 pm to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
I'm not sure this team has what I'd call a "superstar"...and our 2 best players have severe weaknesses in their game...plus, BOTH have a style of play that gives him very little flexibility in running a solid all-around offensive scheme. I'm not even sure how many teams out there would even WANT
I agree and disagree. I agree that both Z and BI are more stars than superstars. However, BI has reached his limit as to what he can be as a player. Zion is still scratching the surface. He’s shown flashes of being a Giannis type player if his handle and passing continues to improve. He showed that last year and he’s shown that again this year, it just took some time.
But because of the FO’s unwillingness to go all in with Z and trade Bi or CJ + picks for a true superstar to pair with Z is what will be our undoing. It won’t be Willie. It won’t be Z’s health. It will be our organization being too loyal to guys we should move just because those guys have been loyal to the team and organization.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 12:04 am to SaintEB
quote:
Zion's bag is limited. If they are putting 2-3 guys in the paint, just waiting for him, this team is dead if they aren't shooting well. Zion needs some sort of mid-range game to pull these guys out of the paint when he has the ball
While his bag is limited. I call bullshite. The Bucks basically parked Lopez and Giannis in the paint and Z still was getting whatever he wanted on two of the better defenders in the league.
The problems you mention is when Nance is in and he’s parked in the corner, which allows teams to sag off Nance and park 3 in the paint. Not even Giannis can navigate that.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 12:16 am to SaintEB
quote:
They should go all in for KAT in the offseason. He give you an outside shooting presence and rebounding.
They absolutely should and they absolutely won’t. Griff has built a decent roster for once and values his pieces too much to move off them. The answer for this team is more offense, not defense. It’s an offensive league.
Posted on 4/3/24 at 10:01 am to Pistol44
quote:No one is arguing, take a breath and relax.
Your arguing with yourself Shel.
You're doing the literal same thing I'm doing, no need to take a weird position here like this when you've done the same thing and debated on your opinion
This is what people do on message boards, they discuss things. Sometimes people may not share an opinion, and they debate things, and that's ok. I shared an opinion and asked a question or for someone to provide information. You did that, but your information was factually incorrect, that's not a big deal, that's ok too.
quote:We have factually been better before the AS Break than post AS Break when Nance plays.
You can squabble with Coach Green's choice of play style but the choice of centers has been dictated by that, particularly post ASB as you note. Pels are at .600 with 7 games left so it has not been entirely unsuccessful.
We have factually been better pre and post AS Break when Val is on the court compared to Nance.
My original question still stands that you have not answered, show me the data that points to this team being better with Nance on the floor as opposed to Val.
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 10:05 am
Posted on 4/4/24 at 1:22 pm to lionward2014
quote:
only time he got in the refs face was a very clear foul on Dyson.
Just bumping to say it was painfully obvious something like last night would eventually happen when our coach just claps and says we have to keep doing what we've been doing while leaving our guys out to fight for themselves.
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