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Started By
Message
re: Simmons: “Top 5 Dumbest Trades of this decade”
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:57 am to iwyLSUiwy
Posted on 6/26/25 at 9:57 am to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
I honestly don't even know what you're trying to argue at this point
The same thing I have been. You judge a decision at the time it's made, not with hindsight bias.
1
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:04 am to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
You have to judge the trade on how it plays out. If the kid is a bust and the Bucks end up in the lottery then it's a disaster
They have two shots at the lottery. If our pick or both end up hitting they get both.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:05 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
not with hindsight bias.
The trade results haven't even officially occurred. Your judgment is prisoner of the moment type stuff.
Again, you dont know what queens career will look like or what the picks will be next year. So you cant fully judge it yet. Doing so is rather foolish.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:06 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
Joe Dumars knows so much more about basketball that you, me, Bill Simmons & Nick Wright. So we shall see. But I readily admit it don't look good right now.
It was more of a Troy Weavers nepotism pick. The guy will do anything to get his guy. It happened in Detroit and it’s happening now. He did draft some decent players in Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Jaren Duren, Ausar Thompson and Marcus Sasser. His only fail pick was Killian Hayes. Jaden Ivy is TBD.
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 10:07 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:06 am to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
I honestly don't even know what you're trying to argue at this point.
He doesn't either.
I really can't tell if this is a troll or he actually thinks he's smart enough to understand the things he thinks he's saying.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:08 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
We just disagree that the NBA draft is just a series of bets
It doesn’t have to be a bet. Just look at what the expected value of a player is. What do you think Queens worth is? Is it worth the value you could get on average from 23 + next years pick? No. It’s not random or bets. It’s an assessment of value. Queen is not some can’t miss top 5 prospect according to most. So you have to weigh the value of the picks you could have had based on the likelihood you attain those picks. Most of us believe the pick will be better than Queens value alone. Let alone that we gave up 23.
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 10:09 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:08 am to Townedrunkard
quote:
If our pick or both end up hitting they get both.
I don't think so?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:10 am to southdowns84
quote:
He doesn't either.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:11 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
The trade results haven't even officially occurred. Your judgment is prisoner of the moment type stuff.
Again, you dont know what queens career will look like or what the picks will be next year. So you cant fully judge it yet. Doing so is rather foolish.
If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:13 am to southdowns84
quote:
He doesn't either. I really can't tell if this is a troll or he actually thinks he's smart enough to understand the things he thinks he's saying.
No you’re just really not understanding how decision making processes work. You evaluate a decision based on the information you had at the time. What were the chances that SGA became an MVP? What are the chances Kawhi and George are hurt so much? If you look at the actuality of the situation you’re not factoring in the fact that unlikely things happened that made the trade end up bad. The chances of any player becoming MVP is incredibly low.
Now you can say that the team underrated these likelihoods but you can just look at the pelicans as an example. BI didn’t become an All-Star. Neither did Lonzo. Our picks from Lakers didn’t amount to much because they had good injury luck.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:13 am to SlowFlowPro
There’s a gap between “stupid decision” and “top 5 worst this decade.”
It’s only “top 5 worst” if it plays out in a worst case scenario, however likely that is.
If it plays out to where we and Milwaukee are both reasonably good (playoff or play in level teams), then it may have been stupid but not disastrous.
It’s only “top 5 worst” if it plays out in a worst case scenario, however likely that is.
If it plays out to where we and Milwaukee are both reasonably good (playoff or play in level teams), then it may have been stupid but not disastrous.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:14 am to higgsBoson
quote:
It doesn’t have to be a bet. Just look at what the expected value of a player is. What do you think Queens worth is? Is it worth the value you could get on average from 23 + next years pick? No. It’s not random or bets. It’s an assessment of value. Queen is not some can’t miss top 5 prospect according to most. So you have to weigh the value of the picks you could have had based on the likelihood you attain those picks. Most of us believe the pick will be better than Queens value alone. Let alone that we gave up 23.
It's not just us believing. There's lots of data backing this assessment up.
Would Presti trade an unprotected 1st of OKC right now, let alone with a swap of another team's first in the mix? For the 13th pick in a draft?
The 13th pick has value. The 23rd pick has value. An unprotected 1st has value. An "unprotected" swap with another team has value. These values are all based on probabilities and historical data.
These things can all be judged and evaluated in real time.
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 10:19 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:15 am to AOC4PREZ2028
quote:
Joe Dumars knows so much more about basketball that you, me, Bill Simmons & Nick Wright.
He hasn’t been a team president in over 10 years because he is so good? He came to a team with questionable ownership and an even more questionable star player because he is wanted by so many other organizations?
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 10:20 am
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:16 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
SlowFlowPro
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:16 am to higgsBoson
quote:
No you’re just really not understanding how decision making processes work.
He's hung up on me using an example to show DM generally, using a specific poker example last night. The poker example I used wasn't specifically comparable to our specific trade/decision last night, because I was just giving an obvious "bad move that worked out against the odds" scenario.
That's why I simplified it to generalities ITT ("If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?")
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:18 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?
That's not what an nba draft is.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:21 am to whatiknowsofar
quote:
That's not what an nba draft is.
That is EXACTLY what the NBA draft is, though, ultimately.
If we're not running our team understanding that, then we are frickED. We're running it based on gut/feel and not analytics and the most optimal decision making.
Again, if you want to draft well, get a bunch of picks.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:22 am to higgsBoson
quote:
No you’re just really not understanding how decision making processes work. You evaluate a decision based on the information you had at the time. What were the chances that SGA became an MVP? What are the chances Kawhi and George are hurt so much? If you look at the actuality of the situation you’re not factoring in the fact that unlikely things happened that made the trade end up bad. The chances of any player becoming MVP is incredibly low.
Now you can say that the team underrated these likelihoods but you can just look at the pelicans as an example. BI didn’t become an All-Star. Neither did Lonzo. Our picks from Lakers didn’t amount to much because they had good injury luck.
I understand the decision they made, I just think they paid a lot for it.
SFP is trolling or was drunk last night talking about risk, poker, and statistics. He's smarter than that.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
He's hung up on me using an example to show DM generally, using a specific poker example last night. The poker example I used wasn't specifically comparable to our specific trade/decision last night, because I was just giving an obvious "bad move that worked out against the odds" scenario.
That's why I simplified it to generalities ITT ("If a person makes a -EV decision on a bet and ultimately gets lucky and wins the bet, is that still a good decision?")
It was just a horrible example in every way. It was almost an argument against the point you were trying to make.
Again, I think they gave up too much in the trade.
Posted on 6/26/25 at 10:27 am to danilo
quote:
He hasn’t been a team president in over 10 years because he is so good? He came to a team with questionable ownership and an even more questionable star player because he is wanted by so many other organizations?
I am solely defending Dumars in relation to Bill fricking Simmons. I would not have hired Dumars. SFP said that the league execs would all prefer Bill Simmons. That is nonsense.
This post was edited on 6/26/25 at 10:28 am
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