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Message
SI Article Gets It
Posted on 6/20/19 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 6/20/19 at 2:55 pm
This
LINK
With Zion Williamson in Place, Why Would the Pelicans Trade the 4th Pick?
The 4th pick in the draft is the 4th pick in the draft, whether you have the 1st pick or not. None of the other picks we have from the Lakers are likely to be anywhere near the 4th pick. Other than Zion, for success down the line, I don't really care who else is on the team right now. Take your shots at other stars for the future regardless of position. BPA with highest upside. Don't care about role players right now - that's for when we are ready to win a championship. Thank you.
LINK
With Zion Williamson in Place, Why Would the Pelicans Trade the 4th Pick?
The 4th pick in the draft is the 4th pick in the draft, whether you have the 1st pick or not. None of the other picks we have from the Lakers are likely to be anywhere near the 4th pick. Other than Zion, for success down the line, I don't really care who else is on the team right now. Take your shots at other stars for the future regardless of position. BPA with highest upside. Don't care about role players right now - that's for when we are ready to win a championship. Thank you.
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 3:16 pm
5
Posted on 6/20/19 at 2:58 pm to beautigers65
quote:
This pick question is worth considering in the abstract, though. The Pelicans have been down this road before. One of the reasons the Anthony Davis era failed was because the team recognized how great Davis was and tried to accelerate its timeline as a contender in the West.
...
quote:
All of this is why I'd argue the Pelicans should proceed with caution before flipping a top-five pick to add any veteran reinforcements around Zion and Holiday. Granted, if they can land someone like Bradley Beal by trading Ingram and Lonzo, two players whose futures are still murky despite their upside, that's a plan that might make sense. In the wake of the lottery reform, bottoming out is less lucrative than it was during the late 2000s. If there's a path to a genuine All-Star, it's worth exploring. Either way, though, the draft pick should be off the table.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:02 pm to Philippines4LSU
TYFYS
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:04 pm to beautigers65
Just depends who is available. We have a frickload more assets than we did when we landed AD.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:04 pm to beautigers65
It's not really the same scenario to me. Pelicans were trading away their current & future 1st picks at the time. Leaving drafts empty handed.
If you trade #4 (just #4), you still walk away with Zion and you're not giving up any future picks.
I'm not saying they should or should not trade #4, I just don't think it's the same scenario as what was happening the last 6 years.
If you trade #4 (just #4), you still walk away with Zion and you're not giving up any future picks.
I'm not saying they should or should not trade #4, I just don't think it's the same scenario as what was happening the last 6 years.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:06 pm to beautigers65
I that you don't post often, but plz be mindful of blind links. At least put part of the title of the article in the Post title, put the articles title in the actual link, or at least provide a quote or two from the article.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:07 pm to Philippines4LSU
Does this guy even know what's going on?
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:16 pm to burdman
quote:
It's not really the same scenario to me. Pelicans were trading away their current & future 1st picks at the time. Leaving drafts empty handed.
Yep. We have all our future picks and lots of other peoples' picks, some of which are going to be very good. We also suddenly have a number of young players to develop.
Becoming a good team now and developing a winning culture is what helps us, in two or three years, to be able to attract top free agents to make a championship run. To get those guys then, we're going to have to be able to show them that we're close, and they could put us over the top.
There is zero reason for this team to do anything other than get a good big with the #4 and contend for the playoffs this year.
All that will even help Zion get more endorsements, all-star votes, etc. -- which, again, makes us more attractive to free agents.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:22 pm to beautigers65
I agree with the premise but this team desperately needs at least one good vet besides Jrue IMO
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:37 pm to Rand AlThor
quote:
I agree with the premise but this team desperately needs at least one good vet besides Jrue IMO
To me, that is what you have the 23 million in cap space for.
We might never get another top 5 pick in the Zion era. There is no guarantee the Lakers flame out, or that with the draft smoothening that even if they do our luck doesn't swing the other way.
I think unless you have a true all-star like Beal, maybe a Turner who is on a favorable contract, you don't sell that pick.
If we end up trading for a Robert Covington tier player tonight I will be very upset.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 3:45 pm to Philippines4LSU
quote:
The Pelicans have been down this road before. One of the reasons the Anthony Davis era failed was because the team recognized how great Davis was and tried to accelerate its timeline as a contender in the West.
this is straight up retarded
when we had an early pick that we dealt, we dealt it for jrue, who has been great for us (with some unfortunate personal issues and injury issues). we gave up nerlins fricking noel, too.
yeah we've been down this road before and did the smart thing last time
Posted on 6/20/19 at 4:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
this is straight up retarded
when we had an early pick that we dealt, we dealt it for jrue, who has been great for us (with some unfortunate personal issues and injury issues). we gave up nerlins fricking noel, too.
yeah we've been down this road before and did the smart thing last time
If the Demps method actually worked we wouldn't be sitting here with the 1st and 4th pick tonight.
The Jrue trade was really the only long-term positive of that era of accelerationism. And even then there are a lot of cautionary tales to be learned in spite of that.
Jrue was traded for on the assumption he would be the full-time 1 next to our full-time 2 in Gordon. And Evans was soon promptly signed and solid role players shed to be Manu. Anderson was signed under the assumption that AD would grow into a center during Ryno's contract and Ryno would be the starting 4. Demps famously said around that time that his roster for the next 5 years was basically in place.
Turned out Jrue was not a natural point guard, Evans was not mature enough to embrace a sixth man role, AD didn't develop the way we projected and preferred to remain a 4 and was not the instant paint protector ala Camby that people predicted(making their time on the court often a sieve). Gordon was a head case his early years and none of our guards fit naturally together. And because you shed rookie contracts for guys on their second, your flexibility cratered.
We don't know what Zion is yet. His projections are all over the map, from a Lebron esque point PF/Center, to just a ball handling big that will forever play around the rim but need facilitator's around him. Who may or may not develop a reliable jump shot. All those variables can and will drastically alter what the ideal roster Zion needs, like was the case with AD. And that requires fluidity.
Most of the moves Demps made, most of the moves being floated as rumors now, are moves that are available to teams with moderate assets every season(including the Jrue trade). To me, unless it is an all-star level player like Beal, I would be hesitant to commit major assets or cap space to veterans right now. I'm even resistant to Turner, who I think we would be the front runner for if the Pacers are open to moving him today or 6 months from now because we have the best war chest in the league.
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 6/20/19 at 4:17 pm to Bronc
quote:
If the Demps method actually worked we wouldn't be sitting here with the 1st and 4th pick tonight.
the primary reason his path didn't work was b/c of bad luck and bad doctors
Jrue's injury was withheld from us and then his wife got brain cancer. we lost almost 3 years of him due to that
Asik was also damaged goods. it was a good trade if his body was working, but it wasn't
and the biggest one: Boogie. if Boogie doesn't tear his achilles we are a top 4 seed this year and AD/Boogie are signed for the long term
the worst thing Dell ever did was the Solo/Moore offseason when we did have cap space
quote:
We don't know what Zion is yet. His projections are all over the map, from a Lebron esque point PF/Center, to just a ball handling big that will forever play around the rim but need facilitator's around him. Who may or may not develop a reliable jump shot. All those variables can and will drastically alter what the ideal roster Zion needs, like was the case with AD. And that requires fluidity.
any move we make will have a finality that cuts into this fluidity. just b/c we draft a guy at #4 doesn't make us more fluid. we still have that guy (until we don't). anyone we trade #4 for will have the same issues. it's not like if we deal 4 for Turner, Turner is such a depreciating asset that we are stuck with him (like Asik was)
Posted on 6/20/19 at 4:32 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the primary reason his path didn't work was b/c of bad luck and bad doctors
Jrue's injury was withheld from us and then his wife got brain cancer. we lost almost 3 years of him due to that
Asik was also damaged goods. it was a good trade if his body was working, but it wasn't
and the biggest one: Boogie. if Boogie doesn't tear his achilles we are a top 4 seed this year and AD/Boogie are signed for the long term
All of those are additional reasons as to why the Demps method is not one that is embraced by wiser GM's in this league, and why Griffin would be wise to avoid embracing it.
When you take multiple assets and invest them into one, based on a set of assumptions about another(one with a high range of variance and an uncertain timeline), your margin for error and level of risk rises exponentially.
The first rounder we spent on Asik goes down or busts, it sucks, but you move him for likely nothing or let him walk and move on. You trade for Asik you lose not only that first rounder but cap space and roster flexibility. As you are paying the top of the market for that asset and can only sell at a notable loss if it goes sideways. That was the problem with Tyreke and Asik. And even when Jrue goes down for an extended period.
quote:
any move we make will have a finality that cuts into this fluidity. just b/c we draft a guy at #4 doesn't make us more fluid. we still have that guy (until we don't). anyone we trade #4 for will have the same issues. it's not like if we deal 4 for Turner, Turner is such a depreciating asset that we are stuck with him (like Asik was)
It absolutely does matter.
What do you think is easier to move, the number 4 pick on a rookie contract under-performing or a guy on his second contract that is under-performing?
Which is not to say you never do it, but you better be careful with how much and for who you take that risk on this early in a rebuild where the focal point has so much uncertainty.
I'd be fine with Turner, but I would argue if Turner is available there is no reason why he needs to cost this years 4th when we have the strongest asset chest in the league. Whatever realistic non-4th deal a team could make, we can match or beat it, or at least find a substitute.
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 6/20/19 at 4:38 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
any move we make will have a finality that cuts into this fluidity. just b/c we draft a guy at #4 doesn't make us more fluid. we still have that guy (until we don't). anyone we trade #4 for will have the same issues. it's not like if we deal 4 for Turner, Turner is such a depreciating asset that we are stuck with him (like Asik was)
Exactly. And what's more risky? Getting a quality, proven player at #4, or drafting a player and hoping that he turns out to be good? If you want fluidity, the best way to do that is to already have a good team and try to make steps to make it better. If we have a bad team next year, then we are forced to make bigger steps to fix the problem -- that takes away our flexibility.
Posted on 6/20/19 at 4:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Exactly. And what's more risky? Getting a quality, proven player at #4, or drafting a player and hoping that he turns out to be good? If you want fluidity, the best way to do that is to already have a good team and try to make steps to make it better. If we have a bad team next year, then we are forced to make bigger steps to fix the problem -- that takes away our flexibility.
If you have a bad team next year you get another high draft pick. If your cost-controlled rookie under-performs, you move him for at worse, almost nothing(based on historical precedent). Total Cost: 4th pick, 5 million dollars.
If you invest 20 million and the 4th pick in a guy that underperforms, you now have a guy you have to give up additional assets in order to get out from under him and take another shot. Total Cost: 4th pick, o20 million in cap space, additional assets to move him.
It is just the case that scenario one is more flexible. Which is not to say you don't ever go for scenario two, but it should mean you are cautious this early in the process when the focal point of your team has such a wide variance in his time schedule and projected future skillset. That should be the core lesson of the Demps era and it is scary so many fans seem to have not learned it.
This post was edited on 6/20/19 at 4:53 pm
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