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re: Pelicans' rookie Kira Lewis Jr. is a student of the game
Posted on 11/30/20 at 11:34 am to Epic Cajun
Posted on 11/30/20 at 11:34 am to Epic Cajun
quote:
I think you're expecting a bigger year 2 jump from NAW than I am, and also Kira to produce this year (which I'm not convinced of).
Bingo. I think at least one happens, if not both.
And not that they'd be great, but good enough to be on the floor.
Also wasn't that big on Moore either.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 11:36 am
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Posted on 11/30/20 at 12:43 pm to TeddyPadillac
Langdon said in his post draft interview that he could foresee Lewis competing for minutes this year, but they got him because they thought he had the highest upside of anyone available. Their eye is on the future.
This was widely accepted as a weak draft. Being drafted at 13th, in a down year, doesn’t mean anything. In that same interview Langdon also said they would be sending him to the G-League, if it was easy. That does appear to be the case. He may not spend any time there this year, but it will not be simply because he was the 13th pick in a weak draft.
This was widely accepted as a weak draft. Being drafted at 13th, in a down year, doesn’t mean anything. In that same interview Langdon also said they would be sending him to the G-League, if it was easy. That does appear to be the case. He may not spend any time there this year, but it will not be simply because he was the 13th pick in a weak draft.
Posted on 11/30/20 at 1:31 pm to Fleur de Diable
I love how everyone just accepts this is a weak draft. We will have no idea if it's a weak class for another year or two.
If you want to call it the most unknown draft class, fine, but calling it a weak class is lazy. Had you gotten to see these kids play their conference tourney's and NCAA tournament, then have an actual combine, then i'd accept a pre assessment that it's a weak draft. There's way too much unknown to claim that.
Give me an example of a previous draft that you consider weak? Every draft will have at least 3 allstars in it. Only 1 draft in the last 18 didn't have at least 3, and that one draft had 2, Embiid and Jokic.
This article sums it up well LINK
If you want to call it the most unknown draft class, fine, but calling it a weak class is lazy. Had you gotten to see these kids play their conference tourney's and NCAA tournament, then have an actual combine, then i'd accept a pre assessment that it's a weak draft. There's way too much unknown to claim that.
Give me an example of a previous draft that you consider weak? Every draft will have at least 3 allstars in it. Only 1 draft in the last 18 didn't have at least 3, and that one draft had 2, Embiid and Jokic.
This article sums it up well LINK
quote:
What you find in hindsight when looking back at drafts of the past is that the ones most believe to be lacking in talent were actually just harder to predict. This year doesn't have Zion Williamson and Ja Morant at the top.
quote:
We seem to hear some variation of this every year, yet every year the NBA Draft produces multiple All-Star players and almost every class includes a future Hall of Famer or two. One could argue every draft class is varying degrees of good. They just get judged too much by the players who get selected at the top.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 11/30/20 at 2:54 pm to bonethug0180
Coming back to add another point about why JJ will see reduced minutes from last year (again not saying limited, just not 26).
26 mpg is the fewest he's had since 2010. We clearly envisioned him as more of a role player than major minute guy.
And to further that point, he was forced into 36 starts (more half the season) because of injuries to Zion and Favors. Jrue and Ball started almost every game.
Without those 36 starts he isn't sniffing 26 mpg.
This also eats into the notion we were putting Jrue on wings because we wanted to so Ball can do it too, when in actuality we did it out of necessity. But that's an argument for another thread.
Now that I have time I'll try to post my guess on what the minutes will look like this season (in the beginning and again at the trade deadline).
26 mpg is the fewest he's had since 2010. We clearly envisioned him as more of a role player than major minute guy.
And to further that point, he was forced into 36 starts (more half the season) because of injuries to Zion and Favors. Jrue and Ball started almost every game.
Without those 36 starts he isn't sniffing 26 mpg.
This also eats into the notion we were putting Jrue on wings because we wanted to so Ball can do it too, when in actuality we did it out of necessity. But that's an argument for another thread.
Now that I have time I'll try to post my guess on what the minutes will look like this season (in the beginning and again at the trade deadline).
Posted on 11/30/20 at 2:59 pm to TeddyPadillac
I think people called last year's draft outside of the top 3 as pretty lackluster. wrong so far.
The 2013 you're referring to was probably the last one where most people said that draft was abysmal, yet it generated >5 high quality players.
The 2013 you're referring to was probably the last one where most people said that draft was abysmal, yet it generated >5 high quality players.
Posted on 11/30/20 at 3:16 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
This.
No one drafted 13 or better in many years has played in the G-League and Kira isn't either.
13 seems to be the cutoff point of guys that you expect to draft and get minutes without wasting time in the G-League.
This isn't a good justification for him not playing in the G League. The G League is expanding and developing into a different entity than what it has been. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing more teams utilizing it for higher selected players.
Posted on 11/30/20 at 3:28 pm to bonethug0180
Assuming about 150 minutes for the starters and 90 for the reserves (give or take 1-2 minutes here and there with any player), this would be the start of the season:
Starters
Bledsoe- 28
Ball- 32
Ingram-32
Williamson- 32
Adams- 26
Reserves
Hart- 24
Redick- 18
Melli- 16
Hayes- 14
Walker-10
Lewis- 6
Hernangomez- 2
Gabriel- 0
Thornwell- inactive
And of course that won't be every night. I think Gabriel will get some run in some games, but none in others, at least to start. He and Hernangomez basically switching who gets those last couple of minutes. Thornwell would also be in the same boat but I think he is below both a little.
I also think as the season goes on Redick will lose a couple of more minutes (2-4) to the young guys.
I think Lewis will eventually overtake NAW as the top guard backup.
If Hayes develops I think he can steal more minutes from Melli. On the flip side if he does poorly I can see Hernangomez and/or Gabriel being given bigger roles.
This is also in an ideal, no injury scenario.
Starters
Bledsoe- 28
Ball- 32
Ingram-32
Williamson- 32
Adams- 26
Reserves
Hart- 24
Redick- 18
Melli- 16
Hayes- 14
Walker-10
Lewis- 6
Hernangomez- 2
Gabriel- 0
Thornwell- inactive
And of course that won't be every night. I think Gabriel will get some run in some games, but none in others, at least to start. He and Hernangomez basically switching who gets those last couple of minutes. Thornwell would also be in the same boat but I think he is below both a little.
I also think as the season goes on Redick will lose a couple of more minutes (2-4) to the young guys.
I think Lewis will eventually overtake NAW as the top guard backup.
If Hayes develops I think he can steal more minutes from Melli. On the flip side if he does poorly I can see Hernangomez and/or Gabriel being given bigger roles.
This is also in an ideal, no injury scenario.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 11/30/20 at 3:45 pm to TeddyPadillac
I can accept that criticism of the my argument. I should have simply said being drafted at 13 doesn’t guarantee him anything. Griff has stated multiple times the type of culture they’re trying to create. Getting playing time because of draft status isn’t a part of that and if NAW beats him out as the 4th guard, I don’t see the problem I’m getting him some run here and there(in a normal year).
This front office has been fairly transparent and I’ll take Langdon for his word that they would send him to the G league, if it it were easy. The news so far doesn’t paint a picture of that being the case. And perhaps, because of the uncertainty maybe you keep everybody you can on your bench just in case a rash of people get knocked out with COVID.
This front office has been fairly transparent and I’ll take Langdon for his word that they would send him to the G league, if it it were easy. The news so far doesn’t paint a picture of that being the case. And perhaps, because of the uncertainty maybe you keep everybody you can on your bench just in case a rash of people get knocked out with COVID.
Posted on 11/30/20 at 6:59 pm to bonethug0180
Going back and looking some more, I think people are vastly underestimating the impact injuries have on minutes per game.
If you actually added up everyone's mpg that played at least as many games as Zion (14 players), you get 321.8 minutes per game, 81.8 minutes over an actual game.
Even taking out Zion and Okafor (meaning everyone else played at least 39 games, and that's a whole 27.8 from Zion so not nothing), you still end up with 12 players at 278.4, 28.4 minutes over.
Even going further to an 11 man by taking out Williams (meaning everyone else played a minimum 40 games) you have 257.1 minutes, so you are still over by 7.1 minutes.
That's the effect injuries have on mpg. A lot of these guys had starts where otherwise they wouldn't have. Redick had starts in more than half the games he played, which greatly skewed the minutes he would have gotten.
And let's not forget Zion's minute restrictions limiting him to 28 mpg. That gave other guys minutes they would have otherwise not gotten in the games he actually played.
So going all the way back to an earlier discussion, no you absolutely cannot look at last year and say this will be it. And if you did Zion is only getting 28. Not to mention we also lost the guy that lead the team in mpg.
If you actually added up everyone's mpg that played at least as many games as Zion (14 players), you get 321.8 minutes per game, 81.8 minutes over an actual game.
Even taking out Zion and Okafor (meaning everyone else played at least 39 games, and that's a whole 27.8 from Zion so not nothing), you still end up with 12 players at 278.4, 28.4 minutes over.
Even going further to an 11 man by taking out Williams (meaning everyone else played a minimum 40 games) you have 257.1 minutes, so you are still over by 7.1 minutes.
That's the effect injuries have on mpg. A lot of these guys had starts where otherwise they wouldn't have. Redick had starts in more than half the games he played, which greatly skewed the minutes he would have gotten.
And let's not forget Zion's minute restrictions limiting him to 28 mpg. That gave other guys minutes they would have otherwise not gotten in the games he actually played.
So going all the way back to an earlier discussion, no you absolutely cannot look at last year and say this will be it. And if you did Zion is only getting 28. Not to mention we also lost the guy that lead the team in mpg.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 11/30/20 at 7:06 pm to bonethug0180
I think the point of the exercise, at least in my mind is to predict the minute distribution that would occur on a random game night during the season, not to necessarily predict what the mpg averages are at the end of the season, because things like injuries will definitely affect that, and like you said, the minutes will never work out because of that.
Posted on 11/30/20 at 7:09 pm to Epic Cajun
Exactly. Which is why it was crazy someone pulled the mpg for the bench from last season and said find minutes from that.
It doesn't apply. Injuries GREATLY affected several of those guys minutes. Hell Williams played 39 games with 18 starts at 21.3 mpg. If we are going to pull from last year there is Kira's minutes. It's a fricking joke to look at last year and say that's what it will be.
I think the rotation I gave is extremely reasonable all around.
It doesn't apply. Injuries GREATLY affected several of those guys minutes. Hell Williams played 39 games with 18 starts at 21.3 mpg. If we are going to pull from last year there is Kira's minutes. It's a fricking joke to look at last year and say that's what it will be.
I think the rotation I gave is extremely reasonable all around.
This post was edited on 11/30/20 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 11/30/20 at 10:53 pm to TigerinATL
Didn't see it mentioned anywhere but he officially signed LINK
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