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Started By
Message
re: Lockout ending in sight?
Posted on 11/10/11 at 6:51 pm to Jester
Posted on 11/10/11 at 6:51 pm to Jester
quote:
The players argument against the system changes are an argument against competetive balance and small market teams. Given the function of the BRI split, the players will not make more money, just be able to continue gaming the system and getting paid the same by contenders.
It also screws some of the lower tier players to let tax teams drive up the market price for aging veterans who don't deserve it. This leaves less of the BRI split for the players who need the money more. Solid union behavior.
the players want a more free market system than the small market owners
as you said, the players have conceded salary. now the owners want that ON TOP OF fricking up everything else
0
Posted on 11/10/11 at 8:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
if this is true, then the owners are split and a deal really can't be done
I think the only way a deal gets done is if the players cave.
Posted on 11/10/11 at 8:24 pm to TigerinATL
even if they cave i don't think the owners know exactly what they want
Posted on 11/10/11 at 10:16 pm to Jester
quote:
e players argument against the system changes are an argument against competetive balance
False. There is no proof that payroll increases winning percentage
quote:
The best sports economists suggest that there is very little connection between spending and winning. Here’s what Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College and former adviser to the players’ union, told Howard Beck of The New York Times earlier this month: “The statistical correlation between payroll and win percentage is practically nonexistent.”
quote:
At first glance, the path of the franchises on this 55-win list seems to show that, again, money isn’t a major factor in winning over the long haul. Take the Kings, for instance: David Stern’s poster child for poverty won 55 games in four straight years (2000-01 to 2003-04) and saw its payroll move from 22nd to eighth to fourth to fifth. Or how about the Spurs? They pulled the 55-win trick a league-high nine times during this stretch with payrolls ranging from the mid-20s (2001-02, 2003-04 and 2004-05) to the pricier top-10 tier (2006-07, 2010-11 and just a hair outside the top 10 in 2007-08, according to ShamSports).
quote:
Whatever system that exists must enable teams to spend when they have a title window (and not necessarily at other times, as Tom Ziller has argued). Could the Kings, with the reported struggles of the Maloof family, afford a top-10 payroll? Money matters in that sense, but we are talking here about profitability, not competitive balance or fairness. The system, as is, clearly allows teams like the Kings to compete provided they can afford it. The players are justified in arguing that the only changes required to ensure teams can indeed afford this kind of spending could come via revenue sharing and smarter ownership, not dramatic reductions in player salaries or adjustments to the cap and tax system.
LINK
Posted on 11/10/11 at 11:34 pm to corndeaux
League presents "last best offer". It sounds like there weren't many changes and Hunter and Fisher don't like it but said it was enough to present to player reps. Sounds like this may be over if players and owners both vote to approve it. Stern says if it's approved next week he's planning on a 72 game season that starts December 15th.
And here's what probably makes this deal happen.
Not many details yet on what's changed in the deal, but I'm hoping enough stayed the same to give the Hornets leverage with Paul.
And here's what probably makes this deal happen.
quote:
Adrian Wojnarowski: As one Eastern Conference executive just texted about 72 game sked: "Instead of (the players) missing two checks, they will only miss one." about 6 minutes ago
Not many details yet on what's changed in the deal, but I'm hoping enough stayed the same to give the Hornets leverage with Paul.
quote:
Adrian Wojnarowski: Don't have full details of revised owners' proposal, but league barely moved on most of important system issues, sources say. about 14 minutes ago
Chris Broussard: Owners' new offer includes new $2.5 mill exception.Also, will raise minimum payroll for teams (used to b 75% of cap, will now b much higher) 1 minute ago
Zach Lowe: Another tweak, per source close to talks: Teams under cap who then spend up to it would get a little exception, worth $2.5M, to spend. 1 minute ago
Posted on 11/11/11 at 8:09 am to TigerinATL
The general sentiment is that the players will reject this, but it really looks like it's deal or no season right now. Throwing away $2 Billion you'll never get back over restrictions that effect a few stars much more than the rank and file seems pretty stupid.
Also, Hollinger points out why the players have been so adamant about the revenue sharing becoming part of the deal.
LINK
So ironically a new source of league revenue is part of why they are locking out the players.
Also, Hollinger points out why the players have been so adamant about the revenue sharing becoming part of the deal.
quote:
Lakers huge TV deal increases BRI. But doesn't change bottom line for other 29 teams at all. So they insist on lower % of BRI for players.
Meanwhile, increase in BRI ups costs because of cap rules. Only options are more revenue sharing or hammering players.
well it was nice knowing you, NBA. I will now pour antifreeze in my coffee.
LINK
So ironically a new source of league revenue is part of why they are locking out the players.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 9:48 am to TigerinATL
I hope the players do accept, just so I can see NBA basketball this year.
That said, I wouldn't blame them if they decided to torch the season.
LINK
Links for articles by Lowe, Abbot, Haberstroh, and Aldridge are embedded in my link.
I will be very interested to see what the league came up with for revenue sharing. The league has recovered all of the claimed losses per season with 50/50 split. Any real revenue sharing basically removes any and all risk from owning a franchise.
Plus this article from Larry Coon
LINK
The restrictions hurt the rank and file the most. Only 5 sign/trades have happened with tax teams, none where even All-Star caliber players. The mid level changes are where the players are getting punished.
That said, I wouldn't blame them if they decided to torch the season.
quote:
Silver continues to pound the competitive balance myth, despite talking to a room filled with writers who have shredded the league's argument that payroll parity increases on-court parity, talking to living rooms filled with the sort of hardcore fans who have read Zach Lowe, Henry Abbott, Tom Haberstroh and David Aldridge rip Silver's thesis apart. The defiance in Silver's stance is somewhat understood -- he can't abandon the league's No. 2 talking point (behind profitability) now, not with the victory parade in sight. But the volume on SIlver's faith was cranked up to 11 on Thursday. He wants to believe, and he wants you to trust him.
LINK
Links for articles by Lowe, Abbot, Haberstroh, and Aldridge are embedded in my link.
I will be very interested to see what the league came up with for revenue sharing. The league has recovered all of the claimed losses per season with 50/50 split. Any real revenue sharing basically removes any and all risk from owning a franchise.
Plus this article from Larry Coon
quote:
How much will franchise values increase? It’s hard to say. There are a lot of factors that go into determining the value of a business, and a number of ways to do the calculation. A conservative estimate might be a $3 million to $12 million average increase in franchise values for each percentage point in revenues the league wrests from the players. Decreasing the players’ split of BRI from 57 percent to 50 percent therefore might be worth $21 million to $84 million per team.
quote:
So in addition to the direct savings from paying the players less, the owners stand to make more when they eventually sell their teams. That’s a win-win situation for them. But there’s a potential downside to this increase in franchise values. It’s common for a new owner to finance a portion of the purchase price of a team, and the league counts interest on this debt as part of its stated losses. If a franchise is worth more it will sell at a higher price, more of the purchase price will be financed, and the interest payments will be greater. This will affect the league’s bottom line – a few years from now the league may once again say it is losing money, and once again say it needs the players to take less.
LINK
quote:
Throwing away $2 Billion you'll never get back over restrictions that effect a few stars much more than the rank and file seems pretty stupid.
The restrictions hurt the rank and file the most. Only 5 sign/trades have happened with tax teams, none where even All-Star caliber players. The mid level changes are where the players are getting punished.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 9:51 am to TigerinATL
The deal has been offered.
Looks like the Agents and the militant players like KG and Pierce are pushing HARD for decert and to reject the deal, part of the reason why the players won't vote until maybe Tuesday.
Supposedly some agents say they have 200 player signatures in favor of decertification.
I think the players are going to be idiots and reject it thinking the owners will keep coming back to the table. I don't think that will be the case. I think the owners are done.
Looks like the Agents and the militant players like KG and Pierce are pushing HARD for decert and to reject the deal, part of the reason why the players won't vote until maybe Tuesday.
Supposedly some agents say they have 200 player signatures in favor of decertification.
I think the players are going to be idiots and reject it thinking the owners will keep coming back to the table. I don't think that will be the case. I think the owners are done.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 10:29 am to Fun Bunch
Specifics of deal proposed:-
- The biannual exception will be available only to non-taxpaying teams. The NBA will allow sign and trade deals for tax paying teams, on a limited and restricted basis.
- Extend-and-trade deals, such as the one signed by Carmelo Anthony last season, will be prohibited.
- The midlevel exception will be set at $5 million for non-taxpaying teams, with a maximum length between three and four years (alternating annually). The value of the exception will grow by 3 percent annually, starting in Year 3. The Mid-Level would not be available to a team if its use would push them into luxury tax.
- The mini-midlevel exception will be set at $3 million for taxpaying teams, with a maximum length of three years, and cannot be used in consecutive years. Its value will also grow at 3 percent annually.
- A 10 percent escrow tax will be withheld from player salaries, to ensure that player earnings do not exceed 50 percent of league revenues. An additional withholding will be applied in Year 1 “to account for business uncertainty” stemming from the lockout.
- Maximum contract lengths will be five years for “Bird” free agents and four years for others.
- Annual contract increases will be 5.5 percent for “Bird” players and 3.5 percent for others.
- Players will be paid a prorated share of their 2011-12 salaries, based on the number of games played once the season starts, with a 72-game season on the table.
- Team and player contract options will be prohibited in new contracts, other than rookie deals. But a player can opt out of the final year of a contract if he agrees to zero salary protection (i.e., if it is non-guaranteed).
- The Basketball Related Revenue Split will be 50-50, with the NBA locking in salaries and benefits equal to last season for the first two years of the deal insuring the players lose no money in accepting a reduced BRI share.
- The Luxury Tax would be an escalating tax based on tiers over the tax line. The tax will increase for every $5 million spent beyond the established line – starting at $70 million in the first year of the labor deal. Teams would be charged a tax of $1.50 for every dollar over the $70 million tax line. That number increases to $1.75 after $5 million over ($75 million), $2.25 after $10 million ($80 million) and $3 after $15 million ($85 million).
- The Repeater Tax would offer an additional $1 charge to each tax tier for teams that exceed the Luxury Tax more than three times in a five year span. Allowing teams to dip into the Luxury Tax, but penalize teams who stay above the tax line for too long.
- There will be a one-time Amnesty Cut allowed. 100% of this cut will be removed from the Luxury Tax and the Salary cap, however 100% of the cut salary will be paid in full to the player and the value of the cut contract will count towards the BRI calculation.
- The biannual exception will be available only to non-taxpaying teams. The NBA will allow sign and trade deals for tax paying teams, on a limited and restricted basis.
- Extend-and-trade deals, such as the one signed by Carmelo Anthony last season, will be prohibited.
- The midlevel exception will be set at $5 million for non-taxpaying teams, with a maximum length between three and four years (alternating annually). The value of the exception will grow by 3 percent annually, starting in Year 3. The Mid-Level would not be available to a team if its use would push them into luxury tax.
- The mini-midlevel exception will be set at $3 million for taxpaying teams, with a maximum length of three years, and cannot be used in consecutive years. Its value will also grow at 3 percent annually.
- A 10 percent escrow tax will be withheld from player salaries, to ensure that player earnings do not exceed 50 percent of league revenues. An additional withholding will be applied in Year 1 “to account for business uncertainty” stemming from the lockout.
- Maximum contract lengths will be five years for “Bird” free agents and four years for others.
- Annual contract increases will be 5.5 percent for “Bird” players and 3.5 percent for others.
- Players will be paid a prorated share of their 2011-12 salaries, based on the number of games played once the season starts, with a 72-game season on the table.
- Team and player contract options will be prohibited in new contracts, other than rookie deals. But a player can opt out of the final year of a contract if he agrees to zero salary protection (i.e., if it is non-guaranteed).
- The Basketball Related Revenue Split will be 50-50, with the NBA locking in salaries and benefits equal to last season for the first two years of the deal insuring the players lose no money in accepting a reduced BRI share.
- The Luxury Tax would be an escalating tax based on tiers over the tax line. The tax will increase for every $5 million spent beyond the established line – starting at $70 million in the first year of the labor deal. Teams would be charged a tax of $1.50 for every dollar over the $70 million tax line. That number increases to $1.75 after $5 million over ($75 million), $2.25 after $10 million ($80 million) and $3 after $15 million ($85 million).
- The Repeater Tax would offer an additional $1 charge to each tax tier for teams that exceed the Luxury Tax more than three times in a five year span. Allowing teams to dip into the Luxury Tax, but penalize teams who stay above the tax line for too long.
- There will be a one-time Amnesty Cut allowed. 100% of this cut will be removed from the Luxury Tax and the Salary cap, however 100% of the cut salary will be paid in full to the player and the value of the cut contract will count towards the BRI calculation.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 10:40 am to corndeaux
quote:
The restrictions hurt the rank and file the most
Who do you consider the rank and file? I'm talking about guys 7-15 on the roster, this helps them the most. The Max salary already shifts money from #1 and #2 to 3-15. Limiting movement means less leverage for #3-#6 meaning less money for them. That money has to go somewhere, especially with the salary floor being raised from 75% to 85%. #7-#15 win with the new system AND win with not losing a season since they tend to have the shortest careers and lowest earnings.
quote:
Silver continues to pound the competitive balance myth, despite talking to a room filled with writers who have shredded the league's argument that payroll parity increases on-court parity
I think the tax increases aren't about competitive balance as much as revenue sharing. The league doesn't want to open that can of worms any wider than it has to. Restricting the movement of stars may not lead to parity or increased national ratings, but it should increase local revenues by ending the cycle of a team and city investing in a player only to watch him walk away in his prime.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 11:00 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Chris Broussard: Luxury tax teams will be able to do sign-&-trades for first 2 years of deal...new exception worth $2.5 mill...increase minimum team payroll
Chris Broussard: Owners phase in of sign-&-trade for tax teams is big.Means Dwight, CP3, DWill & Nash could all be signed-&-traded.That keeps LAL n hunt 4 DH
He doesn't mention the Carmelo rule so presumably the Hornets would still have the option year to use as leverage, but instead of being able to offer 6/$120 to everyone else's 4/$75, it would be 6/$120 vs. 5/$100. At this point I'm not sure how I feel about it. Locking into CP3 and his questionable knee for 6 years vs. rebuilding around 2 lottery picks in a deep draft is a tough call.
This post was edited on 11/11/11 at 11:01 am
Posted on 11/11/11 at 11:01 am to TigerinATL
AlexKennedyNBA Alex Kennedy
Uh oh. I just got this text from an NBPA source: "No deal. Total BS. The deal got worse. No season."
Uh oh. I just got this text from an NBPA source: "No deal. Total BS. The deal got worse. No season."
Posted on 11/11/11 at 11:06 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
"No deal. Total BS. The deal got worse. No season."
It's the 5 stages of grief. I think we're in denial and anger stages right now. Decertification is the bargaining stage, then comes depression. If they let the whole union vote and the gold digging WAGs are consulted about giving up this year's salary to fight the good fight, they'll speed the whole process up and get to acceptance by the end of next week.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 11:08 am to TigerinATL
Completely agree. They wouldn't be taking it to a vote if the deal "got worse".
The militants will be out in force the next few days.
The militants will be out in force the next few days.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 1:17 pm to Fun Bunch
Jason Terry says the players will walk if the deal isn't much better than the last:
quote:
"Our reasoning and what our strategy is, is we are trying to grow the game of basketball and under the terms that have been presented to us, the game of basketball for us, from a players' perspective, financially, will not be growing,"
Posted on 11/11/11 at 2:22 pm to Fun Bunch
RicBucher Ric Bucher
New proposal would allow teams to send players to NBDL first 5 years of career and reduce pay to pro-rated 75K. Talk about non-starters.
2 minutes ago
New proposal would allow teams to send players to NBDL first 5 years of career and reduce pay to pro-rated 75K. Talk about non-starters.
2 minutes ago
Posted on 11/11/11 at 2:29 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
"Our reasoning and what our strategy is, is we are trying to grow the game of basketball and under the terms that have been presented to us, the game of basketball for us, from a players' perspective, financially, will not be growing,"
He's trying really hard to avoid saying what he obviously means.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 2:39 pm to Jester
MikeWellsNBA Mike Wells
Pacers player rep Danny Granger said early indications are that the league's latest offer will be rejected by the NBPA.
1 minute ago
This deal is not going to happen.
Pacers player rep Danny Granger said early indications are that the league's latest offer will be rejected by the NBPA.
1 minute ago
This deal is not going to happen.
Posted on 11/11/11 at 2:42 pm to Fun Bunch
not looking good 
Posted on 11/11/11 at 3:00 pm to NorthshoreTiger76
quote:
"Our reasoning and what our strategy is, is we are trying to grow the game of basketball and under the terms that have been presented to us, the game of basketball for us, from a players' perspective, financially, will not be growing,"
He's trying really hard to avoid saying what he obviously means.
Right and the owners aren't concerned about the financial aspect from their perspective.
I want a season, but I don't blame the players at all if they decertify. I just wish they would have the balls to see it all the way through.
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