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Message
Is It Time To Move On From The Three Guard Lineup??
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 12/21/17 at 1:13 pm
I don’t know the protocol of linking to other forums, but a poster on Pelicans Report by the name of bricklayer has put together one heck of a post looking at the defensive woes of the Pelicans:
LINK
To summarize his findings he sees the issue concentrated in three key areas: our current strength of schedule, 3pt defense, and the three guard lineup.
The first point we can’t really do much about. And the silver lining of his research is that given the strength of schedule we should start winning more games just by virtue of that adjustment. And our perimeter defense should look slightly better in the process.
The rest gets kinda ugly.
Basically the three guard lineup magnifies our greatest weaknesses. We are giving up a completely ridiculous .396 3p% with the three guard lineup and on a high volume of shots. Which would be tied for worst in the league. Defense overall gets even uglier when we run the three guards with Cousins but AD off the floor. The total net rating of the full unit with Cousins and AD with the three guards according to NBA.com is -6.9. And looking into it a bit myself, the DREB% is a paltry 68%. Second worst output from any unit that has played 20 minutes together for the Pels this season.
So the three guard monster is getting pace and points, but making opposing teams look like Steph Curry from the three and when they miss, having a really high probability of getting offensive boards. The cumulative effect is a unit that is desperately trying to keep its head above water by out scoring, but ultimately drowning most nights.
Of course if you agree it’s a major liability needing change, the question immediately becomes a change to what? Cunningham in place of Moore - now granted this is a 16 minute sample size - has been the rare lineup to be even worse. Offense falls off for obvious reasons and the negative net rating sky rockets. Also pointed out in that thread, Miller with Jrue, Rondo, Davis and Cousins has only been on the court 10 minutes. The numbers look good but you can’t trust a ten minute sample. Do the Pels have to look outward for help? Throw caution to the wind and dangle multiple firsts for an overpriced long shot? Crewz mentioned DeMarre Carroll in another thread? Ride it out until Hill gets back and hope his shooting woes don’t create a Cunningham problem?
Word salad aside, thought this might be a nice change of conversational pace from all the “fire the staff” and “blow it all up” discussions.
LINK
To summarize his findings he sees the issue concentrated in three key areas: our current strength of schedule, 3pt defense, and the three guard lineup.
The first point we can’t really do much about. And the silver lining of his research is that given the strength of schedule we should start winning more games just by virtue of that adjustment. And our perimeter defense should look slightly better in the process.
The rest gets kinda ugly.
Basically the three guard lineup magnifies our greatest weaknesses. We are giving up a completely ridiculous .396 3p% with the three guard lineup and on a high volume of shots. Which would be tied for worst in the league. Defense overall gets even uglier when we run the three guards with Cousins but AD off the floor. The total net rating of the full unit with Cousins and AD with the three guards according to NBA.com is -6.9. And looking into it a bit myself, the DREB% is a paltry 68%. Second worst output from any unit that has played 20 minutes together for the Pels this season.
So the three guard monster is getting pace and points, but making opposing teams look like Steph Curry from the three and when they miss, having a really high probability of getting offensive boards. The cumulative effect is a unit that is desperately trying to keep its head above water by out scoring, but ultimately drowning most nights.
Of course if you agree it’s a major liability needing change, the question immediately becomes a change to what? Cunningham in place of Moore - now granted this is a 16 minute sample size - has been the rare lineup to be even worse. Offense falls off for obvious reasons and the negative net rating sky rockets. Also pointed out in that thread, Miller with Jrue, Rondo, Davis and Cousins has only been on the court 10 minutes. The numbers look good but you can’t trust a ten minute sample. Do the Pels have to look outward for help? Throw caution to the wind and dangle multiple firsts for an overpriced long shot? Crewz mentioned DeMarre Carroll in another thread? Ride it out until Hill gets back and hope his shooting woes don’t create a Cunningham problem?
Word salad aside, thought this might be a nice change of conversational pace from all the “fire the staff” and “blow it all up” discussions.
This post was edited on 12/21/17 at 1:29 pm
3
Posted on 12/21/17 at 4:09 pm to bonhoeffer45
He hits on a lot of good points, but I'd rather fire Demps.
Posted on 12/21/17 at 4:14 pm to Jester
quote:
He hits on a lot of good points, but I'd rather fire Demps
Though I unfortunately think we have likely backed ourself into a corner with Demps and our situation, so I am not sure what a new GM could realistically do?
Posted on 12/21/17 at 11:14 pm to bonhoeffer45
Look, Etwuan Moore's increased role is one of circumstance. We'd all love to have Solo out there, but because he's not then Moore's the best two way option over Cunningham or Clark or Miller a lot of the time. Problem is, Moore can't really defend wings. Holiday often takes the better wing assignment for stretches meaning Moore can focus on offense and get his spots amidst this high scoring streak he's on. But...it's why every team's wings are crushing us. Beal goes off, Gary Harris goes off, Middleton even balled out. Moore isn't an elite defender, he and holiday are working out there, but it's not perfect. Until Solo returns, what's a better option?
Posted on 12/21/17 at 11:51 pm to NOLAbaby
quote:
Look, Etwuan Moore's increased role is one of circumstance.
I think we all recognize that. The question is, given the poor showing this particular deck shuffling has had with three guards, should we shuffle some more?
I think at this point it cant really hurt to give Miller the shot to see if we can at least slow the bleeding a little bit. Not force Holliday into guarding small forwards as much and get eaten alive on the bards(I recognize Miller is a poor rebounder but he at least has better size for helping block out rebounders).
But maybe the schedule letting up can solve that problem by itself, I'm skeptical, but maybe.
I think ultimately Solo isnt the answer if we retain Rondo, and eventually we are going to have to swing a trade. I'm warming up to Carroll given research like the PR poster and some of the recent breakdowns I've read. But there is Evan Fournier and some higher risk moves the Pels could likely make. But I think ultimately that is the path the team is going to take. And it is the hole that hasn't been adequately addressed in years.
We all know Demps is just itching to sell that pick off, its just a matter of for whom.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 7:29 am to bonhoeffer45
quote:
we have likely backed ourself into a corner with Demps and our situation
I always hated the “win now” BS. It was never going to work. If we would have kept our picks we could have been:
AD
Darius Miller
Jeff Whithey
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Dario Šaric or Elfrid Payton or Zach Lavine
Glenn Robinson III
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or Jarell Martin
Buddy Hield
That’s not a great team, but we wouldn’t be stuck with what we have and could have made a run at some FA, maybe even Cousins this off season. That Jru trade haunts us!
Posted on 12/22/17 at 8:21 am to NOLAbaby
quote:
Beal goes off
9-19 for 26 points. Started the game off 3-13 i think. he didn't crush us. Mike Scott scoring 24 hurts.
both teams committed 16 turnovers that game. We were -11 in points off turnovers. we lost by 10.
quote:
Gary Harris goes off
9-16 for 21 points, in 43 minutes. normal game from an average SG. did not crush us.
Nuggets commit the most turnovers per game in the league, we are 4th, we had 4 more turnovers than they did, and was outscored 32-14 in points off turnovers, in a game that went into overtime. QUIT MAKING STUPID TURNOVERS AND WHEN YOU DO, HUSTLE BACK AND DEFEND!
quote:
Middleton even balled out
5-19 for 15 points. He did not look good at all.
-12 in the turnover margin, a respectable only -7 in points of turnovers that game, and look at that, we won the game despite the ridiculous amount of turnovers, we just kept them from converting most of them to points.
It's not the 3 guard lineup that killing us, it's the points off turnovers. We are bottom 5 in turnovers, points off turnovers and fast break points. We make stupid lazy turnovers, and then don't get back on defense.
most teams are playing 3 guards anyway. I don't recall a game where i was watching and said, damn the SF from the other team is killing us. You can take Lebron and KD out of the conversation for that, maybe a Kawhi or Paul George, but other than that, there are no other SF out there that present a problem to us with Jrue or Moore guarding them, at least not a big enough problem that it's the reason we are losing games.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:36 am to Jester
quote:
He hits on a lot of good points, but I'd rather fire Demps.
We're always looking for a simple and quick fix.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:39 am to Suntiger
quote:
That Jru trade haunts us!
It really did make sense at the time.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 11:41 am to bonhoeffer45
We definitely need a roster upgrade, somehow.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 12:22 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
It's not the 3 guard lineup that killing us, it's the points off turnovers. We are bottom 5 in turnovers, points off turnovers and fast break points. We make stupid lazy turnovers, and then don't get back on defense.
most teams are playing 3 guards anyway. I don't recall a game where i was watching and said, damn the SF from the other team is killing us. You can take Lebron and KD out of the conversation for that, maybe a Kawhi or Paul George, but other than that, there are no other SF out there that present a problem to us with Jrue or Moore guarding them, at least not a big enough problem that it's the reason we are losing games.
I mean the numbers don’t lie.
When the three guards are on the floor with Boogie and AD, or just Boogie, we are giving up an ungodly percentage from the perimeter, giving up a ton of offensive boards, and the overall defense collapses. Those lineups are being outscored by a pretty wide margin and the sample size at this point is large enough to draw some conclusions.
I think both things can be true at the same time. This is not a one size fits all problem. Turnovers, and more specifically the live ball turnovers, are a major issue. So to is this starting line up and the deficiencies it leaves the team with in other ways. We knew from the start of the season with Hill down the starting unit was going to be an issue. Then Cunningham’s production fell off a cliff and we are where we are now. You could throw in other problems like the transition defense and lack of hustle overall.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 12:27 pm to VOR
quote:
We definitely need a roster upgrade, somehow
Yeah. I think right now the Pels could probably realistically get a player like Carroll or Fournier. If they are willing to part with their first rounder. I’m not sure who else is realistically gettable right now?
Posted on 12/22/17 at 1:10 pm to Suntiger
quote:
AD
Darius Miller
Jeff Whithey
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Dario Šaric or Elfrid Payton or Zach Lavine
Glenn Robinson III
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or Jarell Martin
Buddy Hield
3 starters is great in that scenario, but Baby Jesus Christ, Buddy Hield is sitting the bench in SacTown.
That being said, this team has a gaping hole at the 3 and that is frankly killing the rotation while allowing Cousins to get gassed.
When the tanking teams start to waive/buyout veterans you could see some guys come through (Tyson Chandler as third big) and Hill will help out some, but the three guard line up is killing the Pels.
Demps doesnt need a homerun, a single or double will do just fine. A 3/4 6'8 or taller who can hit the 3.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 1:22 pm to TheCoveBR
I’m all aboard the Carroll train at this point.
He seems imminently gettable with what Brooklyn’s long-term strategy is despite Carroll’s positive spin on his time in Brooklyn.
And he basically checks off every single box we need right now. 40% catch and shoot three shooter on a bad Nets team, averaging 6.9 boards a game, getting to the free throw line 2-3 times a game. Still plays solid man on man and very good team defense. Thrives in and prefers ball movement style offenses. Moves Moore back to the bench and in the process strengthens our rotation.
....with that said my faith in Demps is such he probably trades for another guard instead.
He seems imminently gettable with what Brooklyn’s long-term strategy is despite Carroll’s positive spin on his time in Brooklyn.
And he basically checks off every single box we need right now. 40% catch and shoot three shooter on a bad Nets team, averaging 6.9 boards a game, getting to the free throw line 2-3 times a game. Still plays solid man on man and very good team defense. Thrives in and prefers ball movement style offenses. Moves Moore back to the bench and in the process strengthens our rotation.
....with that said my faith in Demps is such he probably trades for another guard instead.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 1:46 pm to Suntiger
quote:
That Jru trade haunts us!
In all honesty, the jrue trade and eg re-signing wasn't bad. Tyreke which led to having to trade for asik (and then re-signing) was the nail.
Young assets are valuable. We could have pulled a trade for Middleton or Bledsoe because we had assets.
This post was edited on 12/22/17 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 12/22/17 at 3:22 pm to htran90
That’s my thought. AD, Sario and KCP plus, we could have still signed guys like QPon, Cunningham, Moore and Ian Clark and then tried to make a big trade or signing.
Posted on 12/22/17 at 3:23 pm to htran90
There are certainly worse ways to try and build around your new superstar, but I think there were better, more appropriate strategies on the table that could of and should of been pursued instead.
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