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How will the new draft lottery affect the rest of the NBA?
Posted on 5/22/19 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 5/22/19 at 12:33 pm
Tanking doesn't guarantee you top-flight players anymore. If you were bad, you were pretty certain you'd get a pretty solid player in the draft, but it's no longer certain. I think the new lottery will have ripple effects throughout the NBA.
1) Teams won't be bottoming out as much. Thus players like Mike Conley may not be as readily available. Why do it? You can barely miss the playoffs and still get into the top 4 (see LAL).
2) Protections on draft picks become much more important. Trading picks without knowing where they fall will be the ultimate gamble now and teams will utilize this gamble to their benefit. I expect protections become a much bigger talking point in trades.
3) More trades will happen after the lottery & on draft night. So not only does the lottery become a more important event, but the NBA draft will be must see TV.
What else?
1) Teams won't be bottoming out as much. Thus players like Mike Conley may not be as readily available. Why do it? You can barely miss the playoffs and still get into the top 4 (see LAL).
2) Protections on draft picks become much more important. Trading picks without knowing where they fall will be the ultimate gamble now and teams will utilize this gamble to their benefit. I expect protections become a much bigger talking point in trades.
3) More trades will happen after the lottery & on draft night. So not only does the lottery become a more important event, but the NBA draft will be must see TV.
What else?
5
Posted on 5/22/19 at 12:40 pm to DeionDeion
Teams may start looking hard at whether a lottery pick is worth more than an 8th seed and a first round sweep.
Which is exactly why they went to a weighted lottery to begin with. And then re-weighted it when the Magic won in 1993 despite only having about a 1/63 chance.
Which is exactly why they went to a weighted lottery to begin with. And then re-weighted it when the Magic won in 1993 despite only having about a 1/63 chance.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 12:40 pm to DeionDeion
I think you’ll see a new style of tanking pop up more: teams on the playoff bubble going into late season tank mode to not make the playoffs. Now that late lottery teams have a better chance at movement it makes more sense to be in the lottery than playoffs.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 12:41 pm to DeionDeion
quote:
What else?
tanking will move to the middle class in march & april.
would you rather the 8th seed or a chance at a top 4 pick?
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:00 pm to cgrand
so the question I have is, how do you get better? does free agency become even a bigger frenzy because more teams come to the table?
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:05 pm to DeionDeion
The way I see it... it honestly doesn’t change much...as long as you are a top 3 bad team you have the highest odds possible to get a #1 pick and even if you don’t get the #1...#2 and #3 will still have great value...if you’re a bad team it doesn’t change your strategy at all...it honestly just makes it longer and less likely for a team to turn their situation around
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:12 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
I think you’ll see a new style of tanking pop up more: teams on the playoff bubble going into late season tank mode to not make the playoffs. Now that late lottery teams have a better chance at movement it makes more sense to be in the lottery than playoffs.
I don't think that is going to be the issue. The playoffs come with a pretty significant financial incentive and the odds at the back of the lottery are still pretty shite. Now I do believe teams within striking distance (not just on the bubble) of the playoffs will have a tank off earlier in the year to get into the meat of the lottery.
This post was edited on 5/22/19 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:21 pm to NOFOX
I presume with even more February trades to either increase or decrease you position
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:29 pm to DeionDeion
They didn't fix tanking. All they did was give teams in the 8-14 range more incentive to tank. I mean, y'all were clamoring for the Pels to lose games in March/April. 
Posted on 5/22/19 at 1:36 pm to jackwoods4
If Alvin Gentry doesn't call a Timeout he doesn't have versus your Phoenix Suns and subsequently blow that game, the Pelicans don't win the lottery.
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