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Everything you need to know about the AD trade
Posted on 5/14/19 at 9:05 am
Posted on 5/14/19 at 9:05 am
I wrote a 10,000+ word article back in February that just had everything you would need to know about the possible deal, CBA stuff, etc. But it was just too massive to publish. I will leave the word doc here in case you have an hour to kill. But some highlights for those of you who aren't well versed on the CBA. First, the link
LINK
CBA stuff
The Trade Negotiation Window (May 14th - June 20th)
On May 14th, the Pelicans will get the last (and perhaps most important) piece of information they will need to execute the Anthony Davis trade. This is the night of the draft lottery, and not only will the Pelicans find out where their own pick lands, but they will also find out where every team will be drafting in 2019.
On July 6th, the NBA moratorium will end, and whatever deal the Pelicans negotiate will be able to be made official, but make no mistake, this deal will likely be agreed to prior to June 20th - the night of the 2019 NBA Draft. That is the window for when this deal gets done: Between May 14th and June 20th, a span of a little over five weeks.
The difficult part, however, will be that the Pelicans might not have a long term General Manager in place for a portion of that time. Quite possibly a large portion. In all likelihood, the Pelicans will not be given permission to talk to executives who currently have jobs until their teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Executives like Dan Tolzman with the Toronto Raptors or Mike Zarren with the Celtics, could see their teams playing into June, and if the Pelicans are holding off on hiring a GM until they speak to all the perspective prospects, then this could dramatically affect the negotiations.
Danny Ferry and the executives in place can handle preliminary negotiations and set the parameters for a deal but for whoever the Pelicans hire - this will likely be the biggest transaction of their career and they will want to make sure they do their due diligence to get it right. It would not be ideal for the GM to be hired in early or mid June and then force them to execute this deal by June 20th. But, once June 20th passes, the players are selected and New Orleans can not change that.
In addition to that, it makes sense for the Pelicans to execute a trade while all teams are still living in a world full of hope, rather than one that merely contains reality. On June 19th, the Knicks have hope that they will sign Kevin Durant in July; the Celtics have hope that Kyrie will return; the Clippers have hope that Kawhi will join them. And when teams have hope they are more willing to part with long term assets that merely have potential for sure-fire cornerstones. If Kyrie leaves Boston on July 6th, the Celtics might not be as willing to give up Jayson Tatum for AD. If the Knicks strike out with KD and other mega stars, a slow build with Zion is much more alluring than AD and a win-now mandate. Not to mention, the risk of taking on stars who could leave will not have burnt anybody yet. Paul George is still a name people throw around when teams are questioned about the risk of taking on a player on the last year of his deal. The Raptors did that with Kawhi as well. But let Kawhi leave on July 1st and watch the narrative change and teams start to become nervous again of trading major assets for a player without assurances.
Quite simply, the Pelicans can not wait until July to make the Anthony Davis trade. Too many other teams will fall out of the bidding when reality sets in. They must strike while uncertainty and hope reign supreme. They must sell the idea that ‘Acquiring AD will guarantee that you get another star too’ and that idea should drive up the bidding. The true question here, however, is: Can you trust the GM you are dealing with at their word? Because, no matter who the Pelicans trade with, the overwhelming likelihood is that the papers wont be signed and sent into the league office until July 6th or later. If it is the Celtics who the Pelicans negotiate with, it can not possibly be earleir than that because of the Kyrie contract situation. But even if it’s a team like the Knicks, they will want to do the order of operations in such a way as to give them the most possible cap space for free agents, and that likely means doing the Anthony Davis trade last.
Factor all that in plus seeing that whoever the Pelicans execute this trade with is likely to include one or multiple 2019 picks into their package, it makes all the sense in the world to get the deal done verbally before the 20th, and simply trusting that the GM you make a deal with doesn’t get cold feet and back out two weeks later. That rarely, if ever, happens in the league, because that GM and organization would be blackballed, but in a deal this big, a team might risk being blackballed to keep from making a monumental mistake. If say the Celtics and Pelicans agree and then Kyrie goes to New York in July, would the Celtics really keep their word and trade all their young assets for a guy who now would almost assuredly be a one year rental?
These are the crazy scenarios that the Pelicans have to be prepared for, but there are risks they simply have to take. They will never have more leverage than they do between May 14th and June 20th. They need to get as many bidders involved as possible, and then lock up a strong verbal agreement prior to that date. Then, that deal needs to get leaked and become known across the league -- something that the other team won’t mind doing because it will act as a bat signal of sorts to Kyrie, KD, and other max level players.
That also means that hiring a GM as soon as possible, in time to allow him to do his or her due diligence, is extremely important. The Pelicans do not want to settle for a lesser candidate just because of the time sensitivity of this one deal, but they can not afford to let the hiring of a GM effect what they come away with in this deal in a negative way either. The foundation is being laid now, as the team is discussing internally the qualities they want in their FO executives, along with the structure and culture moving forward. Then, in May, this is all going to get kicked into high gear and having a GM in place on or around that time is imperative.
LINK
CBA stuff
The Trade Negotiation Window (May 14th - June 20th)
On May 14th, the Pelicans will get the last (and perhaps most important) piece of information they will need to execute the Anthony Davis trade. This is the night of the draft lottery, and not only will the Pelicans find out where their own pick lands, but they will also find out where every team will be drafting in 2019.
On July 6th, the NBA moratorium will end, and whatever deal the Pelicans negotiate will be able to be made official, but make no mistake, this deal will likely be agreed to prior to June 20th - the night of the 2019 NBA Draft. That is the window for when this deal gets done: Between May 14th and June 20th, a span of a little over five weeks.
The difficult part, however, will be that the Pelicans might not have a long term General Manager in place for a portion of that time. Quite possibly a large portion. In all likelihood, the Pelicans will not be given permission to talk to executives who currently have jobs until their teams are eliminated from the playoffs. Executives like Dan Tolzman with the Toronto Raptors or Mike Zarren with the Celtics, could see their teams playing into June, and if the Pelicans are holding off on hiring a GM until they speak to all the perspective prospects, then this could dramatically affect the negotiations.
Danny Ferry and the executives in place can handle preliminary negotiations and set the parameters for a deal but for whoever the Pelicans hire - this will likely be the biggest transaction of their career and they will want to make sure they do their due diligence to get it right. It would not be ideal for the GM to be hired in early or mid June and then force them to execute this deal by June 20th. But, once June 20th passes, the players are selected and New Orleans can not change that.
In addition to that, it makes sense for the Pelicans to execute a trade while all teams are still living in a world full of hope, rather than one that merely contains reality. On June 19th, the Knicks have hope that they will sign Kevin Durant in July; the Celtics have hope that Kyrie will return; the Clippers have hope that Kawhi will join them. And when teams have hope they are more willing to part with long term assets that merely have potential for sure-fire cornerstones. If Kyrie leaves Boston on July 6th, the Celtics might not be as willing to give up Jayson Tatum for AD. If the Knicks strike out with KD and other mega stars, a slow build with Zion is much more alluring than AD and a win-now mandate. Not to mention, the risk of taking on stars who could leave will not have burnt anybody yet. Paul George is still a name people throw around when teams are questioned about the risk of taking on a player on the last year of his deal. The Raptors did that with Kawhi as well. But let Kawhi leave on July 1st and watch the narrative change and teams start to become nervous again of trading major assets for a player without assurances.
Quite simply, the Pelicans can not wait until July to make the Anthony Davis trade. Too many other teams will fall out of the bidding when reality sets in. They must strike while uncertainty and hope reign supreme. They must sell the idea that ‘Acquiring AD will guarantee that you get another star too’ and that idea should drive up the bidding. The true question here, however, is: Can you trust the GM you are dealing with at their word? Because, no matter who the Pelicans trade with, the overwhelming likelihood is that the papers wont be signed and sent into the league office until July 6th or later. If it is the Celtics who the Pelicans negotiate with, it can not possibly be earleir than that because of the Kyrie contract situation. But even if it’s a team like the Knicks, they will want to do the order of operations in such a way as to give them the most possible cap space for free agents, and that likely means doing the Anthony Davis trade last.
Factor all that in plus seeing that whoever the Pelicans execute this trade with is likely to include one or multiple 2019 picks into their package, it makes all the sense in the world to get the deal done verbally before the 20th, and simply trusting that the GM you make a deal with doesn’t get cold feet and back out two weeks later. That rarely, if ever, happens in the league, because that GM and organization would be blackballed, but in a deal this big, a team might risk being blackballed to keep from making a monumental mistake. If say the Celtics and Pelicans agree and then Kyrie goes to New York in July, would the Celtics really keep their word and trade all their young assets for a guy who now would almost assuredly be a one year rental?
These are the crazy scenarios that the Pelicans have to be prepared for, but there are risks they simply have to take. They will never have more leverage than they do between May 14th and June 20th. They need to get as many bidders involved as possible, and then lock up a strong verbal agreement prior to that date. Then, that deal needs to get leaked and become known across the league -- something that the other team won’t mind doing because it will act as a bat signal of sorts to Kyrie, KD, and other max level players.
That also means that hiring a GM as soon as possible, in time to allow him to do his or her due diligence, is extremely important. The Pelicans do not want to settle for a lesser candidate just because of the time sensitivity of this one deal, but they can not afford to let the hiring of a GM effect what they come away with in this deal in a negative way either. The foundation is being laid now, as the team is discussing internally the qualities they want in their FO executives, along with the structure and culture moving forward. Then, in May, this is all going to get kicked into high gear and having a GM in place on or around that time is imperative.
2
Posted on 5/14/19 at 9:05 am to Crewz
The Trade Kicker
One small wrinkle in AD’s contract that could have a big impact is the 15% Trade Kicker that would go into effect if and when he is moved. That kicker will add another 4.1 million dollars to his 27.1 million dollar salary. In addition to him receiving this money, it would also count as his outgoing salary, so in order to make the trade work, Davis’s salary would have to be treated as a 32.2 million dollar cap figure. This means that the Pelicans would have to take more salary back from any team that is not using cap space to acquire Davis.
There is one small caveat. Davis could choose to waive this trade kicker, if say the Pelicans moved him to a team he wanted to go to. This is a small piece of leverage that Davis and his representatives have that they could use to help make a trade work. Now, make no mistake, $4 million is not going to make or break the deal that will define this franchise for the next decade, but it could be a small tiebreaker. It could make a team have to include or not have to include somebody to make the trade work. Long story short, it is just something to keep in the back of your mind.
The NBA Draft Picks and Their Timelines
Let’s talk about trading draft picks, because there are likely to be some involved in this deal. The most likely scenario is that the Pelicans and the team they trade with will complete the trade before draft night, allowing the Pelicans to tell that other team who they want them to select with the pick or picks that will eventually be traded for Davis. But there are two totally different ways this can play out.
The first way is that the other team sends the Pelicans the ‘rights to’ the players drafted once the trade becomes official. In this scenario, the players do not act as incoming salary. They essentially act as $0 going out and coming in, so they are basically useless in making the deal work. However, if a player is drafted and then signs his contract, they would have an outgoing salary and therefore could make a trade easier to complete. The issue is that a team must wait a month after they sign the player to trade him. Some of you might remember this happening in the Andrew Wiggins/Kevin Love trade, which could not officially take place until August 23rd, even though it was agreed to weeks before.
This scenario is only likely to come into play if the Knicks and Pelicans work out a deal, as the huge salary that the #1 or #2 pick makes will likely be needed to make the trade work. Again, having to wait that month won’t stop a franchise deciding deal from happening, but it is something to keep in mind.
One small wrinkle in AD’s contract that could have a big impact is the 15% Trade Kicker that would go into effect if and when he is moved. That kicker will add another 4.1 million dollars to his 27.1 million dollar salary. In addition to him receiving this money, it would also count as his outgoing salary, so in order to make the trade work, Davis’s salary would have to be treated as a 32.2 million dollar cap figure. This means that the Pelicans would have to take more salary back from any team that is not using cap space to acquire Davis.
There is one small caveat. Davis could choose to waive this trade kicker, if say the Pelicans moved him to a team he wanted to go to. This is a small piece of leverage that Davis and his representatives have that they could use to help make a trade work. Now, make no mistake, $4 million is not going to make or break the deal that will define this franchise for the next decade, but it could be a small tiebreaker. It could make a team have to include or not have to include somebody to make the trade work. Long story short, it is just something to keep in the back of your mind.
The NBA Draft Picks and Their Timelines
Let’s talk about trading draft picks, because there are likely to be some involved in this deal. The most likely scenario is that the Pelicans and the team they trade with will complete the trade before draft night, allowing the Pelicans to tell that other team who they want them to select with the pick or picks that will eventually be traded for Davis. But there are two totally different ways this can play out.
The first way is that the other team sends the Pelicans the ‘rights to’ the players drafted once the trade becomes official. In this scenario, the players do not act as incoming salary. They essentially act as $0 going out and coming in, so they are basically useless in making the deal work. However, if a player is drafted and then signs his contract, they would have an outgoing salary and therefore could make a trade easier to complete. The issue is that a team must wait a month after they sign the player to trade him. Some of you might remember this happening in the Andrew Wiggins/Kevin Love trade, which could not officially take place until August 23rd, even though it was agreed to weeks before.
This scenario is only likely to come into play if the Knicks and Pelicans work out a deal, as the huge salary that the #1 or #2 pick makes will likely be needed to make the trade work. Again, having to wait that month won’t stop a franchise deciding deal from happening, but it is something to keep in mind.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 9:26 am to Crewz
Does the kicker apply if the player is at the maximum for their years of service?
Or does that only deal with ongoing salary and not trade salary?
Or does that only deal with ongoing salary and not trade salary?
Posted on 5/14/19 at 10:09 am to Crewz
Thanks for your work. I plan on reading sometime later today/tonight.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 10:17 am to teke184
quote:
Does the kicker apply if the player is at the maximum for their years of service? Or does that only deal with ongoing salary and not trade salary?
Kicker applies unless it would put them over what they are able to get as a max under the CBA. AD salary after the kicker is still less than 30% of the cap, so kicker applies unless waived.
This post was edited on 5/14/19 at 10:18 am
Posted on 5/14/19 at 10:18 am to Crewz
Other than the 3 teams you mentioned Bos, NYK, LAC, what other teams are we looking at as far as draft position and trade scenarios? Does PHX or ATL have a play if they both land top 4 and something goes awry with the other 3 like NYK getting 4 or Bos/LAC not sure if they can land their all stars? I understand the point is to make those teams think they can gain those stars by adding Davis but what do our backup plans look like? Just trying to see how we can luck into any less likely scenario.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:09 am to NOFOX
OK, TY for answering.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:17 am to Dantheman504
This was written in February. Keep that in mind. I think the real list is:
Boston
Knicks
Raptors
Clippers
Lakers
Hawks
Nets
Sixers
Small chance if lotto miracle happens
Miami
Minny
Boston
Knicks
Raptors
Clippers
Lakers
Hawks
Nets
Sixers
Small chance if lotto miracle happens
Miami
Minny
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:30 am to Crewz
What does Miami have to offer?
They don’t own next year’s pick, they don’t have the cap space to eat bad contracts, and they don’t really have a lot of talent to send out.
Riley would have to deal his arse off to get some assets besides Zion.
They don’t own next year’s pick, they don’t have the cap space to eat bad contracts, and they don’t really have a lot of talent to send out.
Riley would have to deal his arse off to get some assets besides Zion.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:32 am to teke184
Bring back the birdman, re sign Jason Smith, win a championship.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:39 am to teke184
Zion by himself might be enough from any team. You always take quality over quantity. But Miami also has Bam, Dragic as the vet Griffin and Gentry want. Winslow, Richardson. I could argue they can put together a better package than Boston even if they get #2
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:42 am to Crewz
quote:
Boston
Tatum, brown, Hayward, smart, 4 picks
quote:
Knicks
Assuming they win lotto, #1, dsj, Knox
quote:
Raptors
Vanvleet, siakam, filler?
quote:
Clippers
Shamet, sga, Miami(?) pick
quote:
Lakers
Possible lotto winner
Ingram, kuzma, ball, hart
quote:
Hawks
Lotto, Collins, prince, bembry
quote:
Nets
Dlo, Dinwiddie, levert, harris
quote:
Sixers
Embiid, Simmons
Of course we won't get them all, but that's a good bit of talent to have.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:53 am to htran90
quote:
Sixers
Embiid
I've seen Embiid mentioned a couple times recently. Are there actually rumors they may be looking to part ways?
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:56 am to SLafourche07
I would not want him
Posted on 5/14/19 at 11:58 am to LosLobos111
quote:
I've seen Embiid mentioned a couple times recently. Are there actually rumors they may be looking to part ways?
Not at all
Posted on 5/14/19 at 12:01 pm to htran90
Both the Nets and Hawks assets intrigue me but I'm worried about future assests and trade assets from them compared to Bos or other teams. How would y'all compare a package of Harris, Dinwiddie, and Lavert compared to Tatum and maybe Brown + several picks?
Posted on 5/14/19 at 12:02 pm to Pelefraan 1
quote:
Not at all
I figured not, but I haven't been paying too much attention to the playoffs so I didn't know if something came out after PHI was eliminated.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 12:02 pm to SLafourche07
No and frankly it’s absurd for people to even mention it.
Posted on 5/14/19 at 12:08 pm to Fun Bunch
Another bmark special
Makes zero sense and would you seriously want that after this whole AD debacle?
Makes zero sense and would you seriously want that after this whole AD debacle?
Posted on 5/14/19 at 12:09 pm to SLafourche07
I think they would be more likely to move Simmons than Embid and have to be focused on re signing guys like Harris and Butler right now. Depending on productivity and injuries this could be a different conversation this time next year.
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