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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

The context you are using is a select group of the greatest players.


Again, read my words, go look at the link I provided last time we spoke, below is the criteria that derived the 12 season career length you continue to claim is incorrect

- Played in one all star game since 1951

Not all time great, not huge guaranteed contracts, a single all star appearance. Ideally
you would want to narrow down the criteria to make it more relevant to forecasting Ingram, but even with only a single narrowing criteria to eliminate lurking variables that would skew your data, we can clearly see you are just wrong on the facts.

quote:

I would never hope this. But Ingram is one injury away from never playing again. Or being severely limited for a major portion. I barely even looked at a 10 year span of "all stars" and found many examples.


Everyone is one injury away from having their career end. Statistics tell you that is unlikely for guys that have proven themselves enough to make an all star game and that is why you take an average like the above. If you are going to lean on that you are doing EXACTLY what you falsely accused me of and skewing your data and cherry picking.

quote:

Gilbert Arenas- peak of 25, out of the league by 30 Yao Ming- peak at 26, out of the league at 30 Josh Howard- peak at 26, out of the league at 32 Mehmut Okur- peak at 27, out of the league at 32 Brandon Roy- peak at 24, out of the league at 28 Danny Granger- peak at 25, out of the league at 32 David Lee- peak at 26, out of the league at 33 (sucked after 30). Andrew Bynum- peak at 24, out of the league at 26 Roy Hibbert- peak at 25, out of the league at 30 Deron Williams- peak 25-27, out of the league at 32


This is textbook cherry picking. You used the phrase earlier, now you are providing a real-time example lol

Taking only selective data points out of a larger qualifying pool of data to support a particular bias is literally the definition of data cherry picking....But even in that context you disprove your other arguments.

Those players average peak was later than the age 24 you initially claimed, and they weren’t in severe decline at 25 and out by 30. Which was also your claim.

That cherry picked pool all averaged a later peak and a longer career than you claimed would be the case for Ingram.

Even by deliberately cherry picking you failed to make your point.


This post was edited on 1/16 at 4:13 pm


Pistol44
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2019
216 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Someone doesn’t know BI, he gets better each year and particularly after the mid year break.


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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
6365 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
I promise you I read the link you posted before. I do not agree with the basis of it. It is too constricted and small of a sample size. I can't be any more clear. a huge number of "all stars" are many time repeaters. They dominate the pool. You took that and threw Ingram into that group, then stated that is his new normal. This is a guy that almost had to medically retire at 21. But now he is expected to peak at 27 and play until 35. You are stating that is normal.

Further, if he is improving until 27, where exactly are you projecting him? 40/8/8? He can only get his numbers so high. He has never played on a winning team or been to the playoffs. But you are touting him for Superstardom? Where does he go from here?


Pelefraan 1
Member since Jan 2018
4271 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Consistency and performing in the clutch


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

I promise you I read the link you posted before. I do not agree with the basis of it. It is too constricted and small of a sample size. I can't be any more clear. a huge number of "all stars" are many time repeaters. They dominate the pool.


Explain to me how the sample size is too small? What about that construction is more problematic than drawing analysis from a pool of data highly skewed by scrubs? You keep wanting to dismiss my criteria but refuse to give me a reason that doesn’t involve falsely characterizing the criteria.

And what are you talking about? If you make an appearance at an all star game you get your name and data counted. By rough count that would be 450 unique individual players since 1951.You don’t get counted multiple times for multiple appearances. And amongst those players the average career for players that make an all star game is 12 seasons. And we can reasonably deduce that a player today who appears in an all star game likely has a slightly longer than that career on average because the data pool contains decades of data when players couldn’t come out to the pros as early.

quote:

This is a guy that almost had to medically retire at 21. But now he is expected to peak at 27 and play until 35. You are stating that is normal.


He would have to retire if: it was deemed a recurring issue and not a one off event. It was in fact determined a one off event and not a recurring issue so it poses no real heightened risk to shortening his career at this point. Furthermore that would have nothing to do with determining his estimated peak when that number is derived from looking at the past performances of the league.

quote:

Further, if he is improving until 27, where exactly are you projecting him? 40/8/8? He can only get his numbers so high. He has never played on a winning team or been to the playoffs. But you are touting him for Superstardom? Where does he go from here?


Improving as a player doesn’t just involve your basic counting stats: defense, efficiency, diversification of skillset are all ways a player can improve year over year while not drastically increasing his counting stats. That said, it doesn’t matter, this is a conversation derived by looking at what the average career growth and decline looks like and Ingram doesn’t appear to be some outlier to that. I personally think 28-30ppg and 7 and 7 is a pretty doable stat line while playing above average defense and having further diversified his scoring and facilitation efficiency. And more importantly, counter to your assertion just a week ago, there is not evidence Ingram has peaked.





Fox McCloud
Member since Oct 2020
1788 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Agree. Ingram lacks elite athleticism and is pretty inconsistent with his shot. Pure iso player at this point. Not enough for what he’s paid sorry.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

is pretty inconsistent with his shot. Pure iso player at this point.
none of this is true


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htran90
New Orleans Saints Fan
BC
Member since Dec 2012
26453 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
I can't believe some of yal think at 23, he's peaked, when we've seen players (McCollum, Lillard, Beal, Curry, Durant, Harden, etc) all seem to grow a facet of their game even into 25-27.

Ingram this year looks like an improved ball handler and facilitator, things we didn't see the past 2 years. Last year he showed a HUGE leap in his shot, a shot that has stayed consistent (at least his FT shooting has). Over the past 2 years he's shown he's improved defensively as well.

I admit when he was a Laker, I thought he was just someone who produced empty numbers and wouldn't get better. I was very wrong.


Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
9716 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Blame david griffen, not ingram


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theducks
Alabama Fan
Where The Blazers Play
Member since Aug 2013
11163 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

I can't believe some of yal think at 23, he's peaked, when we've seen players (McCollum, Lillard, Beal, Curry, Durant, Harden, etc) all seem to grow a facet of their game even into 25-27.


Pretty sure it’s just brmark who doesn’t understand what a “peak” is.


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The_Duke
Member since Nov 2016
2105 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
So by your (retarded) logic—AD was never a superstar?


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dfwbawwwww
New Orleans Saints Fan
Fort worth
Member since Nov 2020
2 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Swear you are a moron troll


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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
6365 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

Explain to me how the sample size is too small? What about that construction is more problematic than drawing analysis from a pool of data highly skewed by scrubs? You keep wanting to dismiss my criteria but refuse to give me a reason that doesn’t involve falsely characterizing the criteria.



You read an article, which pulled data from a "study", and used it to set a new standard. It is using specific criteria to identify particular players. How would that be common knowledge? Why would that be the default?

Once again, I said that a player's peak is 23-25. Perhaps I should be saying prime. But the article you posted put the peak at 27 based on the average age of All Stars each year. The study it references, put the peak at 26, based on WS and PER in player's history. They stated that both show decline after the age 26 season.

The article also states that a player career, with an All Star appearance, is less than 12 years. If Ingram's peak was 27. That would mean he hit his peak in his 8th season and would done around 31. That is an odd bell curve and runs reverse to how I perceive player's careers. Even in that study, they showed that Jordan was best at 25 and each year (for the next decade) was a steady decline. Same with Kobe. They just hung on super long.


Fox McCloud
Member since Oct 2020
1788 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Good luck arguing with bias fans with homer goggles on. These same fans on this board have defended every single move dell demps made and every coaching hire/fire including firing Monty.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

Good luck arguing with bias fans with homer goggles on. These same fans on this board have defended every single move dell demps made and every coaching hire/fire including firing Monty.



Yeah shut the frick up.

One look at my post history would show you just how fricking stupid this comment is.

Guy made asinine comments he pulled from his arse and has defended them ever since. Even now he is attempting to wiggle his way out of accepting what are completely valid and accurate criteria to answer the questions he just threw some dumb hot takes out to defend a negative opinion of a player he also can’t defend.
This post was edited on 1/17 at 9:29 am


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23
Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

You read an article, which pulled data from a "study", and used it to set a new standard. It is using specific criteria to identify particular players. How would that be common knowledge? Why would that be the default?


You made several dumb comments and continue to defend said dumb comments, that a players average career is only 4 years, Ingram will be out of the league by 30, and that an NBA player’s peak is at age 24 and are in decline around 25-26. With no real development to be realized with this group.

I called bull shite and showed the receipts(you also tried to assert we were an old team but seem to have at least given up on defending that nonsense)

There is nothing invalid with that criteria. I’ve asked you multiple times to try and either provide other supporting data or explain to me why your desire to use calculations from raw data and not properly smoothed data such as this would be superior.

You have been unable to do either/ now you are seemingly attempting to dismiss those studies while not actually providing 1.) a reason why we should 2.) Any sort of defensible alternative research that would provide better results 3.) anything that backs up what you have asserted or defended for weeks now.

Seriously, how hard is it to just admit it you were wrong???

quote:

But the article you posted put the peak at 27 based on the average age of All Stars each year.


FYI, those studies about peak output looked at ALL players. I personally did the calculation for career length by gathering BBall Reference data on players that appeared in an all star game, removing dual occurrences and than averaging the total number of seasons they played. Which was a little over 12 seasons.
This post was edited on 1/17 at 9:53 am


brmark70816
LSU Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
6365 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
Read back over this topic. I have never attacked or called names. I have made statements and defended them. You have constantly thrown jabs and made snide remarks.

The average NBA career less than 5 years The average age is around 25. The peak of player performance is also about 25. Honestly, those are higher than I thought. I have admitted to that and agreed.

You jumped in, set a whole new set of criteria for analyzing players. Then derided me for not using your statistical models (that you pulled from outside sources), like it was common place or that the article you cited is now the standard. I have read your sources and I am happy to discuss them. But they moved the numbers very slightly and are not that earth shattering from what was already understood.

quote:

Seriously, how hard is it to just admit it you were wrong???



See above and through out. You are just getting off on trying to brow beat me and put me in my place.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

The average NBA career less than 5 years


Only if you look at raw data that doesn’t filter out scrubs and journeyman bouncing in and out of the league, so again, it is simply WRONG to apply that to Ingram. A player that doesn’t fit that criteria.
quote:

The peak of player performance is also about 25.


No it is not. Both studies I showed you prove otherwise and they look at ALL NBA players, not just all stars. You haven’t provided anything to support this or your earlier claim that peak player performance was 24.


Listen, you made a bunch of asinine comments and have continued to waste my time having to correct you over and over again over the course of weeks and are surprised I’ve gotten fed up?

All star caliber players have an average career length of 12 seasons(longer if you exclude 50-70’s when players came out later), prime/peak for players is 26-28, most all star caliber players play into their 30’s. A players physical peak is not 24 and his decline is not 25-26. We are not an old team and Ingram’s growth from last to this season suggests he is not tapped out. To make such a statement would require observing an overall stagnation, which we haven’t seen.




Fox McCloud
Member since Oct 2020
1788 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
You stfu. You’re the dude that was praising the Asik trade. You have zero credibility on this board.


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
3840 posts

re: Brandon Ingram shows Lakers he isn't the same player they traded
quote:

You stfu. You’re the dude that was praising the Asik trade. You have zero credibility on this board.




Would love your triggered little bitch arse troll body to try and find any evidence of that.

Why don’t you go talk shite to some more posters than pussy out you bitchmade keyboard warrior


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