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re: Bored, so...would you trade Herb even-up for Dyson ? Sorry...if
Posted on 3/26/26 at 9:55 am to Dinky Mulberry
Posted on 3/26/26 at 9:55 am to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
It's no big deal...but a really sharp guy tried to explain Herb's 3-pt anomaly last season to me & wanted me to figure it out on my own...instead of just giving me the answer. Sort of teach me to fish instead of giving me a fish.
If the object of the discussion is to get the best idea of Herb's future 3-pt shooting... and I admit his "30.6% shooting from three last season" gave me pause...he suggested I use the figure of "35.8% shooting from three last season" on Herb. He wouldn't tell me why...but turned me loose on all of Herb's shooting stats from last season...and I admit...it took me a while but I finally got there. Hint: Look for really odd shooting numbers in a certain area & then...ask yourself...why they are there.
My guy told me ANY half-decent analyst would pick this up fairly quickly...especially if he was zeroed in on trying to analyze Herb's future 3-pt shooting %...and that % is a HUGE factor in determining Herb's future "worth" to a contending team. Same thing for Dyson by the way...2 similar players whose future value for a contending team...is mainly based on what you think they will "shoot from three" for the rest of their careers. You also gotta throw in DD's truly horrible FT% but that a subject for another day.
Sorry for the length of the post...but rest assured, it coulda gone MUCH longer. This kinda stuff is what our "crew" is constantly debating. If you name a player...we've got a serious opinion.
Wow that was a lot of words just to actually say nothing. Wouldn't it have been easier just to say why Herbs shooting numbers are better than they appear than to type out all that?
quote:
This kinda stuff is what our "crew" is constantly debating. If you name a player...we've got a serious opinion.
So yall just like to say yall have opinions on things and not actually share what that opinion is?
1
Posted on 3/26/26 at 10:10 am to iwyLSUiwy
Seems strange for sure...but that's just the way we "test" an individual hypothesis with the rest of the group.
In this case...you just announce.."I think Herb Jones shot 35.8% from 3 last season instead of 30.6%" ,,,with no explanation why. Then you leave it to others in the group to analyze the numbers and hopefully...come to the same conclusion. It gives your hypothesis MUCH more validity...when the others start from scratch...and end up with the same conclusion.
Weird as hell, for sure...but it's just how we roll...and gets REALLY interesting we we get into serious subjects like maybe the war in Iran.
The fun part...is getting others to "re-look" at something...then change their opinion on the matter.
In this case...you just announce.."I think Herb Jones shot 35.8% from 3 last season instead of 30.6%" ,,,with no explanation why. Then you leave it to others in the group to analyze the numbers and hopefully...come to the same conclusion. It gives your hypothesis MUCH more validity...when the others start from scratch...and end up with the same conclusion.
Weird as hell, for sure...but it's just how we roll...and gets REALLY interesting we we get into serious subjects like maybe the war in Iran.
The fun part...is getting others to "re-look" at something...then change their opinion on the matter.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 10:19 am to Dinky Mulberry
Yes, when it's your group of buddies, that is a perfectly fine way to do things. And probably fun. But when you're on a sports forum and trying to prove a point, saying "Herb shot 36% from 3 last year, go figure out why.", it's just kind of dumb. Nobody wants to do a deep dive just to figure out if what you're saying is ridiculous or not. "I want you to research why what I'm saying is true" is some 5th grade teacher level stuff.
I guess we should all just state random stats without any validity and just not have any discussion but we become a research board and we all not share our research.
I guess we should all just state random stats without any validity and just not have any discussion but we become a research board and we all not share our research.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 10:57 am to iwyLSUiwy
Actually...35.80%...which is, in itself, a major clue. We all spend quite a bit of time on basketball-reference.com when it comes to basketball discussions.
How do you most easily, get from 22-72 (30.55%) to 35.80%? THAT...is the magic number we need to find for Herb. Surprise, it's there...and makes perfect sense why it should be added to arrive at Herb's more realistic "shooting from three" final number.
How do you most easily, get from 22-72 (30.55%) to 35.80%? THAT...is the magic number we need to find for Herb. Surprise, it's there...and makes perfect sense why it should be added to arrive at Herb's more realistic "shooting from three" final number.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 11:08 am to Townedrunkard
quote:Exactly like I said, I'm not paying more for a negative value asset.
After next year Herb will be in making close to the same as Dyson.
2027-28: ~$20.8 million.
2028-29: ~$22.5 million.
2029-30: ~$24.2 million (Player Option).
quote:Year 4 and he's not a dude who can be on the floor in the 4th quarter of playoff games. Not remotely close.
So you rather not pay a few million extra for a player that’s just starting to scratch his potential and has already surpassed Herb as a player?
You can certainly argue that we never sniff 4th quarters of playoff games, but it doesn't change the points I made, and getting guys like this that are negative value assets would be one of the many reasons we don't sniff 4th quarters of playoff games.
quote:Not sure how paying for Looney to never play proves your point here.
We paid more for Looney this year than the difference of those three years combined between Herb and DD.
Dyson is a negative value asset. Dyson has shown zero improvement in 4 years in being able to put the ball in the basket and would get played right off the court in any meaningful game we played.
Posted on 3/26/26 at 12:31 pm to shel311
quote:
Exactly like I said, I'm not paying more for a negative value asset.
So Dyson will be a negative asset next year when his extension kicks in, so you must think Herb will also become a negative asset once his kicks in?
quote:
Not sure how paying for Looney to never play proves your point here.
I’m just pointing out a fact. We paid Looney more to sit the bench this year than the difference in contracts between Herb and DD those three years combined…
quote:
would get played right off the court in any meaningful game we played.
Good thing Pels won’t have to worry about that any time soon while DD will likely be starting in the playoffs later this year…
This post was edited on 3/26/26 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 3/28/26 at 4:34 pm to Townedrunkard
quote:I don't assign points to a player for having a teammate who is really good, which is essentially what you're doing here... unless you want to try to argue that the Pels would be soooo much better with Dyson over Herb, which no one believes.
Good thing Pels won’t have to worry about that any time soon while DD will likely be starting in the playoffs later this year…
Hell, Dejounte is back and there is also zero argument as to which player is better between Dejounte and Dyson. None.
If the Pels had a healthy Jalen Johnson and the Hawks didn't, I wouldn't magically think all our players are better and Dyson is worse because of team differences.
Posted on 3/29/26 at 7:15 pm to CP3forMVP
quote:
I'll never understand the need to put someone down to prop another up. I think both are good players. Maybe Dyson's lack of shooting really matters, though I don't think teams are really paying attention to Herb or Dyson so what's it actually matter, (if you want to have the outlier conversation Dyson was also a career 32% shooter coming into this season, so maybe the 14% is his outlier), but I do think he's slightly better than Herb. Considerably better in some areas even. I think there's a reason Atlanta asked for Dyson and not Herb.
They asked for Herb, we said no or asked for Onyeka Okongwu to be included in the trade.
This topic makes little sense considering there is not much separating Herb & Dyson. If you want a former Pel playing for the Hawks the answer is NAW (cheaper, good defender, better shooter). He might mess around & take most improved player in the league.
Posted on 3/29/26 at 8:44 pm to MannyG
quote:
quote:
I'll never understand the need to put someone down to prop another up. I think both are good players. Maybe Dyson's lack of shooting really matters, though I don't think teams are really paying attention to Herb or Dyson so what's it actually matter, (if you want to have the outlier conversation Dyson was also a career 32% shooter coming into this season, so maybe the 14% is his outlier), but I do think he's slightly better than Herb. Considerably better in some areas even. I think there's a reason Atlanta asked for Dyson and not Herb.
They asked for Herb, we said no or asked for Onyeka Okongwu to be included in the trade.
This topic makes little sense considering there is not much separating Herb & Dyson. If you want a former Pel playing for the Hawks the answer is NAW (cheaper, good defender, better shooter). He might mess around & take most improved player in the league.
Here's the bottom line. Two fairly even players & I like both of them...but...VERY different "types" which leads to a contending team (like the Lakers) having quite a bit of interest in Herb...and basically NO interest in Dyson. Lakers woulda traded for Herb at the deadline but just didn't have the draft picks available at the time. Things COULD be different come draft night.
You would be hard pressed to find a contending team...that could find a way to use Dyson. They already have their offensive stars...and are almost always...just looking for that low-maintenance defensive stud...who they can plug-in & hopefully shoot 35-38% on C&S 3s. They do NOT need Dyson's (admittedly better than Herb's) inside offensive game.
Even worse for Dyson...his 3-pt attempt %...has been 41/43/25/14 over his first 4 years in the NBA...headed the wrong way for sure...& that's not even considering his 15% 3-pt% for this season. I have no doubt Herb will have a 3-pt% attempt rate of OVER 50% for the next few years. He's 54% this season...and probably headed up from there...especially if playing for a serious contender.
On a side note...maybe draft night will be a bit more exciting for the Pels...than most here, think it will be.
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