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re: 10.5 GB from the Play-In w/ 40 Games left.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:10 pm to whatiknowsofar
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:10 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
You want to go the 14% chance route
14% for what the #1 pick?
Here's our currently lottery odds
#1 14.0%
#2 13.4%
#3 12.7%
#4 12.0%
#5 27.8%
#6 20.0%
Do the fricking math and that's a 99% chance to get top 6.
My comment wasn't "get top 3" to get a 14% chance at the #1 pick.
It was "we are guaranteed a top player and fresh start".
You want to do something that has probably a 33% chance of happening to then get a result that has anywhere from a 0%-99% of happening with "getting a top 2 pick for Zion".
quote:
your process is a fantasy of all of our best players being hurt like they were at the beginning of the year. It ain't happening. We aren't going to be able to tank
No not at all. Trade BI and CJ and let Herb sit out as long as possible. Its actually super fricking easy.
The crazy thing is that if we still end up doing well because "Zion by himself is playing so great" then we should stillget your results and a higher trade value without even going through your dumb as fantasy scenario.
So we can do exactly what I want to do, get the top draft pick, and STILL increase Zion's value without adding some dumb fricking reasoning and fake hope in there.
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 2:13 pm
2
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:12 pm to whatiknowsofar
This is exactly what I've been saying, and as a fan, how could you not want to see Zion on the floor every night, even with no chance to make the offs?
With this team healthy, the worse thing surrounding them is the coach. I've seen bad coaches be overwritten by great/good players pleaty of times thru NBA history.
Making the offs is unlikely, but definitely possible.
With this team healthy, the worse thing surrounding them is the coach. I've seen bad coaches be overwritten by great/good players pleaty of times thru NBA history.
Making the offs is unlikely, but definitely possible.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:13 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
Draft lottery happens
Hey team with top 2 pick, you want Z?
why would someone take lazy Zion when they can have one of the most hyped guy in the draft since......Zion?
The odds of us getting the #1 pick just isnt' good. We cannot tank with the bottom 4 teams, and i'm throwing Brooklyn in there with Utah, Charlotte, Washington. They just lost by 60 last night. They can easily tank. It's going to be very difficult for us to continue tanking b/c we are too talented even if half our guys are healthy. I think Toronto and Portland are going to try to win, but we'll likely pass both of them up too.
That leaves us at 7th worse, with really only the Bulls being a team that might trade away to get worse and tank. We aren't surpassing the Sixers, and unless Wemby misses significant time, we aren't passing the Spurs, and both of those scenarios would mean we would have to be a team that finishes the season 20-20 and they go 10-30.
I'll say it again for the 50th time, we aren't getting any lower than 8th in the draft order, and the likely position is going to be in that 5th-7th range depending on how we do and how Portland/Toronto do. We simply cannot compete at the same tank level as the Wiz/Hornets/Nets/Jazz.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:20 pm to BGpels
quote:
Why everyone keeps saying that with tanking we will have top 3 pick. Last year 1st and 3rd pick went to 9 and 10th lottery team.
Because the teams they replaced still finished in the top 6.....
It won't be guaranteed top 3. If that is what everyone assumed from myessages then I apologize for being too specific.
It would be guaranteed top 6. Which if that is going to be a "gotcha point" or make someone think it hurts my argument then this board is a fricking lost cause.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:28 pm to Dantheman504
quote:
Do the fricking math and that's a 99% chance to get top 6.
WE CANNOT FINISH IN THE BOTTOM 4 UNLESS ZION QUITS PLAYING NOW AND BI NEVER RETURNS AND MURRAY/TREY START SITTING GAMES.
and if you do the math, there's an almost 50% chance you don't land anywhere in the top 4 with those odds.
If we aren't picking 1st, or even 2nd/3rd, then does it really matter at that point if it's 4th or 7th? 4th is notoriously one of the biggest busts spots.
4th/7th the last 10 years:
Porzingis/Mudiay
Bender/Jamal Murray
Josh Jackson/Markannen
JJJ/Wendell Carter
Hunter/Coby White
Patrick Williams/Killian Hayes
Barnes/Kuminga
Murray/Sharpe
Thompson/Coulibaly
Castle/Clingan
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:39 pm to Dantheman504
Top 6 is guaranteed only for the bottom two teams, which will never happen for a team with players like ours. Even Memphis last year finished 7th with all the injuries and players shut down at the end. Realistically that's where we will end up (6-8). With this we still have a decent shot at top 4 and at the same time build some chemistry for next year.
At the end, if Willie is still our coach next year it doesn't matter who will be on the team.
At the end, if Willie is still our coach next year it doesn't matter who will be on the team.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:44 pm to Dantheman504
quote:
Here's our currently lottery odds
#1 14.0%
#2 13.4%
#3 12.7%
#4 12.0%
#5 27.8%
#6 20.0%
Do the fricking math and that's a 99% chance to get top 6.
That you think 6 is anywhere close to something as good as top 2 is a joke
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:57 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
That you think 6 is anywhere close to something as good as top 2 is a joke
The fact that you think we are getting a top 2 pick for Zion is a joke.
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:06 pm to Dantheman504
quote:
The fact that you think we are getting a top 2 pick for Zion is a joke.
It would depend on the team and what else would be included.
But hey keep thinking us picking 4-6th is the far better option.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:29 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
But hey keep thinking us picking 4-6th is the far better option.
Yes getting a pick #4-6 and keeping Zion would be better than trading Zion in the hopes of getting a top 2 pick.
There is a higher chance that we convince a team to attach an extra 1st > that team agreeing to give us their guaranteed top 2 pick.
"Oh you want a top 2 pick well here's an extra first to make sure we DON'T do that".
Would still rather the tank and best guaranteed option we have.
Control what you can control. Again if we trade both CJ/ BI and Zion plays well then we could still end up with your exact trade scenario without actually getting fricked out of 10 draft spots.
Posted on 1/17/25 at 8:30 am to Dantheman504
quote:
I don't support instant gratification that has a negative long term result.
this is the best description of the situation...
all the people who want us to "just make the playoffs", so THEY themselves can feel good about the season, don't realize how much this would absolutely hurt the franchise in the long run... any bullshite "success" we have down the stretch only serves to frick up our draft position, keep problem characters entrenched in the organization, and keeps us status quo that we've seen from this organization for the last half decade, if not longer....
Posted on 1/17/25 at 10:34 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
WE CANNOT FINISH IN THE BOTTOM 4 UNLESS ZION QUITS PLAYING NOW AND BI NEVER RETURNS AND MURRAY/TREY START SITTING GAMES.
We would have to go 25-15 or better to finish the season > #9 in the lottery. Fans are legit talking about us having to go 30-10 to make the playoffs as a 10 seed. The suns, spurs, and kings have 2-3 less games played than us and have 12 less losses. Fans are absolutely nuts if "going for the playoffs" is your move.
To put into perspective if we go .500 at 20-20 our record would be 30-52 which is 100% a bottom 9 team.
If you trade both CJ/ BI and Herb sits then I'd be very surprised if we still somehow go 20-20.
And if we finish better than 20-20 then it means Trey/ Zion are looking good, we can still make whatever bullshite Zion trade with his higher value, and worst case scenario we still finish with a good lottery pick while having no unnecessary contracts on the roster.
We are just over halfway through the season and in NFL terms our team is 1-7 or 2-6 and people are actually talking about playoffs as the best move.
Posted on 1/17/25 at 12:15 pm to Bonkers119
quote:
Is it doable?
Not without Herb
Posted on 1/17/25 at 12:30 pm to Dantheman504
quote:
We are just over halfway through the season and in NFL terms our team is 1-7 or 2-6 and people are actually talking about playoffs as the best move.
I don' think anyone is talking about actually making the playoffs as an actual realistic belief. Pretty sure everyone knows that it's about as likely as winning the powerball at this point.
We are simply pointing out that if some miraculous way they did make it (which means they'd have to play as a 60 pace win team from here on out) then that's something to be excited about. That's all. No one believes that's going to happen.
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