Picking the winners of the 85th Annual Academy Awards

The Oscars are at the end of the month and what a year for films it has been. I have seen six of the nine films nominated for Best Picture and, with the exception of Les Miserables, I believe they are all worthy to take home Oscar gold. But, as we all know, only one film can take home the top prize and the film that will do it has become clearer to us over the last couple of weeks. So...let's get cracking!


Best Motion Picture of the Year

One last time, the nominees are:

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

The Skinny: Lincoln emerged as the early frontrunner when nominations for the Golden Globes and Academy Awards were announced. It leads the pack with 12 nominations overall but its upset at the Globes as well as the Producers Guild Awards really hurt its momentum.

As of two weeks ago, Argo has emerged as the favorite to win it all. Despite Ben Affleck's snub in the category of Best Director, Argo has been snatching up all the precursors. It won the BFCA, the Golden Globe, the PGA, the SAG award, and most recently the DGA for Best Director. Usually when a film wins all of these precursors they go on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. However, it must be noted that only TWO films in the entire history of the Academy have won the Oscar for Best Picture while also failing to have its director nominated for Best Director - and those two films were Driving Miss Daisy (1989) and Grand Hotel (1932). Can Argo become the third? I think so.

Winner: Argo
Runner-up: Lincoln



Best Achievement in Directing

One final time, the nominees are:

Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

The Skinny: This is one of the most remarkable lists of nominations I have seen in this category for quite some time. No one, and I mean NO ONE, saw the nominations for Haneke and Zeitlin coming. Most people took for granted that Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow would be nominated for their work on Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. So with their snub this category becomes very fun to predict.

Of the five nominees, only two of them were nominated for the Directors Guild Award - Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg, thus narrowing the possibilities considerably. Why? Because in the history of the Academy, no director has won the Oscar for Best Director without also being nominated for the DGA. It's easy to predict Michael Haneke in this situation due to his international acclaim but I'm going to go with history here.

Winner: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Runner-up: Michael Haneke, Amour



Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

One more time, here are the nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

The Skinny: It's been a few years since there was any drama in this category and it looks like we'll have to wait another year to see if that drama will return. Because Daniel Day-Lewis is about as locked in for the win as you can get. He took home the BFCA, the Golden Globe, and the SAG. He's really got no competition and, unless the Academy refuses to give him a historic third Oscar for Leading Actor (something that's NEVER been done), I don't see him losing in this category.

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Runner-up: Denzel Washington, Flight



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

And the nominees are:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallace, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

The Skinny: Every year we always have a category that is fiercely contested and almost always that category is either Lead Actress or Supporting Actress. This year's Leading Actress category is a fierce battle between two actresses: Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Chastain was the critical darling as she won the BFCA. They both took home Golden Globes for their respective performances, but it was Lawrence who took home the SAG award.

Now winning the SAG doesn't always equate to Oscar gold. Mickey Rourke found that out a few years ago when he won the SAG for The Wrestler before ultimately losing the Oscar to Sean Penn and his performance in Milk. In this year's race, however, I have to give the edge to Lawrence.

While Jessica Chastain delivered a pretty amazing performance, her character was somewhat one dimensional and she starred in a film that became highly controversial for the torture scenes that took place at the beginning of the movie. The Academy usually goes for meatier, more three-dimensional performances and I think Lawrence delivers that better than Chastain. And because of this, my prediction is.....

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Runner-up: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty



Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are:

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

The Skinny: This is a really tough category to predict because not too many people have paid much attention to it. Outwardly there appears to be no clear frontrunner, but Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG for Supporting Actor which means he has the support of the actors - the largest branch in the Academy. This doesn't always equal out to a sure thing as both Hoffman and De Niro are in an equally good position to win the Oscar.

The Master, however, was not well-received by the Academy and I just have a hard time seeing De Niro win a third Oscar while a legend like Jones continues to work with only a single Academy Award win.

Winner: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Runner-up: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook



Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are:

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

The Skinny: Like Daniel Day-Lewis in the Lead Actor category, Anne Hathaway for her performance in Les Miserables is about as much of a lock as a lock can get. She won the BFCA, she won the Golden Globe, and she won the SAG.

She literally has no other competition, save a WAY outside shot of Sally Field sneaking up and taking the award from her at the last minute. If that happens, it would be the biggest upset since Crash beat out Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture.

But that won't happen.

Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Runner-up: Sally Field, Lincoln