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Posted on 6/6/23 at 2:47 pm to teke184
quote:
There are formulas out there for what a film grosses in its first week or two to what it will get at the end of its run.
Hollywood Stock Exchange uses Opening Weekend X 2.7 = First 4 weeks' gross (guesstimate). If a fake internet game can have a decent track record at pegging these numbers I'm willing to be the movie industry baws have more accurate versions.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 2:55 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
Hollywood Stock Exchange uses Opening Weekend X 2.7 = First 4 weeks' gross (guesstimate).
Using this on LM puts it well under the 350 number.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 3:38 pm to Vols&Shaft83
Yeah, word on the skreet is $140 million marketing
The toys are going be on clearance racks soon, they won't be raking in royalties off the movie property.
The definitely needed to hit $600-750 million to break even on this. Spider-Man, the new Pixar flick, Transformers, and other summer hits will drown out the mermaid completely. It's toast.
The toys are going be on clearance racks soon, they won't be raking in royalties off the movie property.
The definitely needed to hit $600-750 million to break even on this. Spider-Man, the new Pixar flick, Transformers, and other summer hits will drown out the mermaid completely. It's toast.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 3:41 pm to JasonMason
Aladdin topped out at $355 mil domestically. It did slightly better opening week compared to TLM. Plus with the next month will be huge movies opening. SpiderMan across the universe was huge. Then this week Transformers. Those will be top 2 movies. TLM will most likely fall to 3rd or 4th and have another drop off. Won’t have the repeat viewing it needs to have a big number domestically.
Then next weekend is The Flash. So TLM needed to make way more in its first week then it did to get the profit Disney was hoping for. They can say all they want about not being disappointed. That is not true with the marketing they did. They literally cut into the Oscars to promote this film. Anything less than $1 Billion is a huge disappointment.
Then next weekend is The Flash. So TLM needed to make way more in its first week then it did to get the profit Disney was hoping for. They can say all they want about not being disappointed. That is not true with the marketing they did. They literally cut into the Oscars to promote this film. Anything less than $1 Billion is a huge disappointment.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 3:53 pm to Raz4back
quote:
quote:
Marketing had to be at least $100 million
It’s over 320 million global
Can we bookmark a film financials guide?
Budget:
Production - $250 million
Marketing - $140 million
(plus other stuff)
***
Tickets - theaters get 45-50% of ticket. Any number you see out there, half it.
$320 million ticket sales = $160 million to "Disney"
They need another $230 million to break even (so to speak).
Stockholders expect a profit, in other words, at least another $200 million in ticket sales.
The movie is tapped out, there is zero chance they'll make another $230-430 million on it. None.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 4:19 pm to JasonMason
quote:
. I don't think it gets to 350 mil domestic but it did have a strong international weekend in week 2.
It had a strong week internationally? $42.3m is strong? That was over a 60% drop from opening weekend.
Aladdin made almost $700 Million internationally, the Lion King made over $1 Billion
The Little Mermaid is pacing to get less than $225 Million internationally. It's fricked, so fricked.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 4:29 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
t had a strong week internationally? $42.3m is strong? That was over a 60% drop from opening weekend.
I think I read the numbers wrong. I thought it hit $85mil international first weekend and assumed it was about $60mil from the math this past weekend.
Ok I went back and looked at first weekend at it was at $68mil international after the first weekend. Did it not have a higher box in the second weekend international? I meant strong in the sense that it didn't suffer a huge drop like it did domestically.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 6/6/23 at 4:49 pm to JasonMason
quote:
Did it not have a higher box in the second weekend international?
Nope, it dropped, bigly... BTW, lowest ticket sales in China and South Korea for any Disney movie, EVER.
And now the MSM is saying racism is to blame for the low international box office. That'll show em, they actually think Asians give a flying frick about being called racist
Posted on 6/6/23 at 5:20 pm to Vols&Shaft83
Oh, and just to pile on:
For the first time EVER for a Disney remake, all of the Little Mermaid Merchandise sales have DECREASED.
That's gotta be embarrassing, a movie being so poorly received that it actually hurts the Merchandise revenue of an existing IP.
For the first time EVER for a Disney remake, all of the Little Mermaid Merchandise sales have DECREASED.
That's gotta be embarrassing, a movie being so poorly received that it actually hurts the Merchandise revenue of an existing IP.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 6:43 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
For the first time EVER for a Disney remake, all of the Little Mermaid Merchandise sales have DECREASED. That's gotta be embarrassing, a movie being so poorly received that it actually hurts the Merchandise revenue of an existing IP.
Black Panther toys tanked, too. Has been a rough spell in licensing.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:29 pm to concrete_tiger
quote:
the new Pixar flick,
Their interracial dating allegory?
Good luck.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 11:28 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
quote: the new Pixar flick, Their interracial dating allegory? Good luck.
Maybe, but it’s the same audience that mermaid needs. That was the point. Movies rarely pick up a second wind, especially when mermaid literally was the only significant opening on a holiday weekend.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 6:11 am to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
That'll show em, they actually think Asians give a flying frick about being called racist
They would probably say "Hell yes we are." if asked.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 9:51 am to Vols&Shaft83
so China is racist for not liking the black mermaid but y’all are just “anti-woke”
Posted on 6/7/23 at 5:10 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
The Little Mermaid needs to have a minimum of $600 Million (and those are the friendliest estimates, it's closer to $750 Million) just to break even. It's fricked.
Should have had better Jamaicans.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 6:56 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
so China is racist for not liking the black mermaid but y’all are just “anti-woke”
China is racist as frick, dude. I didn't like the movie because it fricking sucks...and yes, I suffered through 2/3rds of it and Awkifina's horrible singing and Sebastián's shitty Jamaican accent.
The Mermaid could be fricking blue for all i care.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 7:10 pm to Vols&Shaft83
Hollywood writer says George Lucas may be buying back Lucasfilm.
LINK
Disney may also have to sell off foreign parks and IPs, including Lucasfilm and more massive layoffs come becasuse they have to come up with $9B to pay Comcast.
LINK
Disney may also have to sell off foreign parks and IPs, including Lucasfilm and more massive layoffs come becasuse they have to come up with $9B to pay Comcast.
This post was edited on 6/7/23 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 6/7/23 at 7:24 pm to Jack Ruby
quote:
Hollywood writer says George Lucas may be buying back Lucasfilm.
shite I don’t know what is worse. Disney continuing to slowly kill all the old franchises or George Lucas swooping in for the Coups de grace
This post was edited on 6/7/23 at 7:45 pm
Posted on 6/7/23 at 7:41 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
That's gotta be embarrassing, a movie being so poorly received that it actually hurts the Merchandise revenue of an existing IP.
I wonder if The Rise of Skywalker did that. I haven't seen The Little Mermaid but surely it is not as bad as ROS.
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