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re: who do you like in the belmont saturday?

Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:44 pm to
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:44 pm to
ahhh...

maybe they were hoping for rain with the kitten angle

i'm not knocking nehro. when he learns to put the pedal down he'll be amazing. i would possibly jump off him if it rains. asmussen was worried about slop before the derby (and he had a shitty, slow work in it) and last i saw it was 60% chance for rain.
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:45 pm to
it did rain shortly before the derby...but just a little.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:49 pm to
do you know the difference in track conditions? i think not...

that little sprinkle wasn't even enough to downgrade to good,much less muddy. it was run on a fast track (though at a super slow pace).

i think i remember him working 5/8th in a creeping 1:03 in the slop. that's not good.

like i said, not knocking him and have bet him. hit the exacta with him and archx3 in the arky derby

This post was edited on 6/8/11 at 10:51 pm
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:51 pm to
no i don't...I just don't want animal kingdom to win.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:52 pm to
that's fine. don't want him to win. but don't say who WILL win, say who should win. you never know, he may get held in the gate, spook and bolt around the turn, or just decide he doesn't feel like running that day because he is an animal. they are unpredictable. almost every horse loses at some point.
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 10:58 pm to
When is superhorse due? I thought they said February.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:02 pm to
2/1/12

wonder if either she or zenyatta will produce anything or be like genuine risk?

her full sister is adorable even crazier face markings

This post was edited on 6/8/11 at 11:05 pm
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:09 pm to
But that's no fun for me. Nehro...book it
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:10 pm to
Before Zenyatta and Rachel the fav filly was Winning Colors. She was incredible to watch run. I am probably biased because of the NFL connection also.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:14 pm to
of course i liked her too.

she was grey love me some greys.

speaking of fillies, the true super mare goldikova seems back in top form

i love, love, love her.
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:17 pm to
Grey? I thought she was jet black?

I could be color blind or though
This post was edited on 6/8/11 at 11:18 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:23 pm to


maybe you were thinking sunday silence? he was black and a year later (my all time favorite race horse). but winning colors was definitely grey. turned white as she aged.

Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:26 pm to
Thanks for showing me. Interesting to see her white. I think my favorite horse of all time though was Alydar, for a horse that never got a break he just was an amazing racer.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:28 pm to
he made up for it in the stud shed though





until he was killed for the $

i wasn't around to see him run, but i've watched those races many times. poor alydar.
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:29 pm to
That horse was destroyed for no real reason, they can not really expect me to believe that they were really that broke and that was only option. I have to think they could have sold him for same value as the insurance.
This post was edited on 6/8/11 at 11:30 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/8/11 at 11:36 pm to
i'm a little shakey on a lot of it, but i think he was insured for close to 40 million. i know they were bankrupt and i doubt they could have sold him for that much.

eta:

quote:

On the eve of the horse's destruction, according to court records, Calumet owed a total of $120 million to various banks, vendors and investors. Foremost among them was First City Bancorporation of Houston. As Calumet's debt had grown, the farm's president, J.T. Lundy, had sold and bartered away so many lifetime breeding rights to Alydar that the stallion's projected cash income to the farm in 1991 had dropped to about $7 million, of which $2 million would have gone to pay his life-insurance premiums.

Indeed, the farm was $2.6 million behind in its total premium payments. John Mabee's Golden Eagle Insurance Co. had said two weeks before Alydar's death that it would not renew its $5 million policy on the horse in December. Lundy needed a large infusion of cash to ward off foreclosure. He was barred from selling Alydar by the will of Calumet's former owner, Lucille Markey. The farm's quickest source of money, court documents reveal, was the $36.5 million in policies on Alydar


LINK


pretty sure i'm going to have to get the wild ride calumet book next.
This post was edited on 6/8/11 at 11:46 pm
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 6/9/11 at 12:24 am to
yo aspy!!

just checked and chance of rain Friday and Saturday (30%). probably not going to be a torrential downpour though. i'm guessing track will officially be listed as good.

still haven't delved too much into it, but here's some initial thoughts:

1. Master of Hounds, Garrett Gomez, 10-1 - can get the distance, should be fresh, might be in my super
2. Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, 20-1 - local horse should enjoy the Belmont track, still hasn't lived up to his potential
3. Ruler On Ice, Jose Valdivia Jr., 20-1 - don't know enough yet
4. Santiva, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1 - seems to be outclassed this season and in this race
5. Brilliant Speed, Joel Rosario, 15-1 - very interesting horse, due to put it all together
6. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 4-1 - don't think he can get the 1 1/2 mile
7. Monzon, Jose Lezcano, 30-1 - who?
8. Prime Cut, Edgar Prado, 15-1 - no thanks
9. Animal Kingdom, John Velazquez, 2-1 - pedigree, speed, stamina, past performances all say he should win this race. track is more like Churchill than Pimlico. no way i'd leave him off any tickets.
10. Mucho Macho Man, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1 - would have liked him if he hadn't run in the Preakness, but i think it's too much too soon for this young 3 y/o. could sneak up and grab 3rd or 4th.
11. Isn't He Perfect, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1 - don't know enough yet
12. Shackleford, Jesus Castanon, 9-2 - oh Shackleford you sonofabitch. still can't get a handle on this horse. my head tells me he can't last at 1 1/2 m but with the first turn being a longer distance the 12th PP won't hurt him that much and he's a for sure threat to be in the money

more to come tomorrow and Friday
This post was edited on 6/9/11 at 12:28 am
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 6/9/11 at 12:25 am to
quote:

in the derby, I had Twice the Appeal, Nehro, Archarcharch, and Derby Kitten (my long shot)



lol

Appeal and Kitten were garbage from the get go
Posted by TigersOfGeauxld
Just across the water...
Member since Aug 2009
25057 posts
Posted on 6/9/11 at 2:56 am to
Animal Kingdom

Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117145 posts
Posted on 6/9/11 at 8:58 am to
My thoughts on monzon are the same as yours

I'm not as quick to toss santiva. From everything I've read he's coming into this race beautifully.

It would be good for the sport if ak and shack could battle it out down the stretch... Maybe get some public intrest for the rest of the season
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