re: Week 3 NFL Betting Thread

Seattle ML (+155) for .4 units

UNDER 4.5 sacks is toast.

Loving all this D!

Rooting for you bilj, your cold streak was hard to watch

Turned it around this weekend. I was getting dumb and playing shite I had no business playing. I'm back to picking my spots

Hit cleemson and the bengals yesterday

My streak is probably right up there with him.

Feeling good so far

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Ok so here is the 2nd half system I've been tracking on covers... Not mine so don't shoot the messenger. Yesterday I went 4-2 testing it. As with any system you should use a flat bet and bet every play for it to be profitable in the long term. I also used it tonight for over 24 in pats game. Totals seem to work better than sides.... Possibly but need more data.

Yesterday it went 23-11-2 in CFB

Here is some stuff I copied to summarize:

System

You are looking for there to be a 10+ point difference or more between the expected and actual 2nd half lines as compared to the pure game total. The bigger the difference the better with 13 showing a superior statistical significance

You take who covered in the first half. If the favorite covered you take them again. If the underdog covers you take them. If the game is under you go under again and if the game goes over you go over in the 2H. Remember for their to be a 10 point or greater middle at the half, the game is way off the original line. Thus we look for that to continue. Maybe the favorite is far superior than they thought. Or maybe the underdog is more competitive than they thought before the game started.


23-11-2 yesterday

Examples


Steelers@oakland
Full Game odds were Steelers -3.5 and 45
At the half, steelers 17-14
2H lines should be Oakland +.5 and 14
2H lines are Oakland +1.5 and 22.5
Thus we have
NO PLAYS!!!

Houston@denver
Full Game odds were Houston -1.5 and 43.5
At the half, Houston 21-11
2H lines should be Houston +8.5 and 11.5
2H lines are Houston Pk and 22
Thus we have over 22

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As posted by dabeerz in the CFB betting thread

quote:

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As posted by dabeerz in the CFB betting thread, biatch

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FIFY

I'm trying to load up for Stanford thurs night man

Work with me