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Message
re: Week 2 college football bet thread
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:09 pm to rocket31
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:09 pm to rocket31
quote:
ND leads the nation in rushing,
Well Georgia's front 7 is one of the best in the entire country. So that plays right in to our strength.
quote:
the games at home
So +3 to ND
quote:
UGA hasnt played a game above the Mason Dixon line since 1965
Probably the most meaningless reason you could have typed.
quote:
ND outplayed temple moreso than UGA outplayed Appy St (Temple is better than Appy)
So is this a loose transitive property argument that isn't transitive in any way? That's creative.
quote:
True FR QB
That's why the line has moved
quote:
NDs defense struggles more against the pass than the run, etc
That favors our QB situation then. We can lean on the running game more and open up the passing game.
1
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:13 pm to rocket31
quote:
besides some broad "UGA D will carry us herp derp" - i have yet to see why UGA fans are so confident in this one
Because our defense is insanely talented and we return 10 starters off of a top 15 defense from last year. I can break it down further if you'd like more reasons.
quote:
Vegas has the line at -6.5 so even they believe UGA is a long shot.
Someone who finds themselves in a betting thread doesn't understand how vegas sets lines, apparently.
quote:
TD underdogs rarely win, just so you know
Georgia doesn't have to win to like them +6.5 you dumb motherfricker.
quote:
and ftr, im likely not wagering on this game
Don't be a pussy.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:22 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
I am about 99.9% sure that is completely false. We opened around -20 if I remember correctly.
quote:
Despite the question marks, bettors already are all over Notre Dame in its Sept. 2 home opener against Temple in South Bend, Ind. Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller posted lines on the opening week of college football games in early April and the Irish-Owls matchup has been his biggest mover by far.
quote:
“Notre Dame opened as a 6-point favorite and is up to 15,” he said. “We got steamed on Notre Dame, so obviously we were off on that number.”
LINK
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:32 pm to Zipfer2022
I stand somewhat corrected.
Looking around, that was the only site that opened close to that number (and was back in March). Looks like others opened us around 2 TDs and we were bet up from there.
Looking around, that was the only site that opened close to that number (and was back in March). Looks like others opened us around 2 TDs and we were bet up from there.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:36 pm to dallastiger55
quote:OU and the points is the sucker's bet of the week.
Also, OU is easy money. Giving Mayfield 8 points?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:38 pm to the_watcher
Oh shite. Had no idea.
Thanks for the heads up.
Thanks for the heads up.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:44 pm to gatorhata9
quote:
Someone who finds themselves in a betting thread doesn't understand how vegas sets lines, apparently
oh, ok. ill play along, how does vegas set the betting line?
(this will be amusing)
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:46 pm to gatorhata9
quote:
That favors our QB situation then. We can lean on the running game more and open up the passing game.
that makes zero sense
ND does well against the run, they struggle vs passing offenses (USC)
UGA is a run first team with a FR QB; its a situation which plays well for the defensive strength of ND
Posted on 9/5/17 at 12:48 pm to gatorhata9
quote:
Georgia doesn't have to win to like them +6.5 you dumb motherfricker.
im well aware...but its quite clear the UGA guys believe they will WIN running away...
reminds me a lot of the LSU tards a couple years ago tbh
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:08 pm to rocket31
quote:
oh, ok. ill play along, how does vegas set the betting line?
(this will be amusing)
Combination of advanced algorithms that incorporate multiple variables that results in putting out a number that will hopefully get even action on each side. This is how you get post open line movement. The number isn't what they think the score difference will be, it's what they think they can get the most even action on.
ETA: And more to my point, the line is down to 4/4.5 depending on the book.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:09 pm to rocket31
quote:
im well aware...but its quite clear the UGA guys believe they will WIN running away...
In this thread? Where?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:22 pm to josh336
Thinking about taking the over in every UT game this year
Took it @63 vs San Jose state
Took it @63 vs San Jose state
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:32 pm to gatorhata9
Nd -4
Usc trojans -6.5
Cincy +35
Oregon -13.5
Edited oregon bc of typo
Usc trojans -6.5
Cincy +35
Oregon -13.5
Edited oregon bc of typo
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:34 pm to oleyeller
So far I have
Stanford +6.5
Western Michigan +7
Mizzou/USCe o72
Stanford +6.5
Western Michigan +7
Mizzou/USCe o72
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:47 pm to josh336
Trying to avoid first week over-reaction, but Purdue -4.5 is awfully tempting.
Kind of want to jump on Western Michigan +7.5, UConn +17, Wake Forest +1.5, and Utah +1.
Kind of want to jump on Western Michigan +7.5, UConn +17, Wake Forest +1.5, and Utah +1.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:37 pm to AbuTheMonkey
big movements i will be watching:
N'western (-3.5) getting movement on the rd vs Duke
TCU (-3) now favored, Ark opened -1
Lvill -9/-10 up from -5.5 vs UNC (tBrandon Harris effect)
very interdasting, but what does it mean????
N'western (-3.5) getting movement on the rd vs Duke
TCU (-3) now favored, Ark opened -1
Lvill -9/-10 up from -5.5 vs UNC (tBrandon Harris effect)
very interdasting, but what does it mean????
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:44 pm to bstew3006
quote:
Should I wow you with posting 11-4 record of my $25 bets? Lol.
The short answer is yes.
This thread becomes worthless when littered with claims of big wins without proof.
And the size of the bet is less important than the strategy that goes into the picks. Hell,even picking without strategy can be interesting when compared to all the guys using analytics or whatnot. Of course, we can't even compare those without picks being listed before the games are played.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:51 pm to josh336
Right now I am leaning UConn, Iowa State, South Alabama, Virginia, Arkansas State, Missouri, LA Tech and North Carolina.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 2:55 pm to Pocket Kingz
Saw this tweet come across my feed. It reminds me of the time I ran $100 to $5,000 inside of a week.
My week went like:
1H NFL W
1H NFL W
Thursday 1H W (lucky)
Oklahoma St in that Midnight Tulsa KO W
2 Saturday plays both W..
It was a free $100 from one of the sites and I kept rolling it over onto the next. They have never giving me free money since.
My week went like:
1H NFL W
1H NFL W
Thursday 1H W (lucky)
Oklahoma St in that Midnight Tulsa KO W
2 Saturday plays both W..
It was a free $100 from one of the sites and I kept rolling it over onto the next. They have never giving me free money since.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 3:00 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Right now I am leaning UConn, Iowa State, South Alabama, Virginia, Arkansas State, Missouri, LA Tech and North Carolina.
Fantastic news. I have Louisville -9 as my only bet on Saturday.
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