re: Unofficial 2017 Australian Open Thread.

Yeah, we need more chicks like Coco who DGAF. Too many softies on the tour.

Looking forward to catching a set of Grigor and Goffin. It blows my mind how this guy built like a 10 year old kid is so good.

Grigor takes the 1st. He's way more patient in rallies than before.

Rally Goffin time:

Lol they just interviewed Brad Wing during the rafa-Raonic quarterfinal. Pretty cool.

Additionally, I would have to consider myself a #truerafafanboy...not that there's anything wrong with that.

As I type this, Nadal is up 6-4, 2-2 with Raonic serving. I've been watching very passively because I'm watching it with open laptop on lap. But from what I've seen as my eyes drift in and out of focus is Rafa pretty well dominating -- or perhaps merely controlling -- the match thus far. This isn't completely surprising, even taking into account that Raonic won in their last match together.

Why? Remember that Masters 1000 final about two years ago where Rafa just absolutely dominated Raonic in a final that I would argue qualified as comically uncompetitive?

You: "Yeah, MV, I remember that match -- beatdown fo sheezy -- but this is two years later and Raonic is better and Rafa is older."
Me: Yes, but when you destroy a man as bad as Rafa did in that match, what that means is that you will always always always be able to beat them in you play at least reasonably well.
"

Rafa is definitely playing well right now. Did you catch Federer-Zverev last night? I think Federer had 30 winners in one set alone. A Rafa- Federer final would be great to see.

quote:

---

That second set tiebreaker was vintage Nadal in the sense that that man plays every point like he's broke. I love it. It's like hyperfocus.

---

That second set tiebreak is the exact reason I will always (no homo, or maybe just a tad homo) love Rafa.

Dude literally thinks every single point is life or death. No one else gets back in that set but Rafa.

quote:

---

Stan is gonna frick this up for me. I can feel it.

---

I think that is likely, but my money says Rafa is going to rip Dimitrov and his OHBH sideways. I want FEDDAL, but Rafa/Stanimal will be epic if that's what we get. I am loving this tournament. I'm a Fed guy first, but Rafa is not far behind, and the rivalry incredible - hope it somehow comes to pass.

On the other hand, if Stan goes through and wins this thing, he has exceeded Andy Murray in the legacy department, at least in my book.

quote:

---

Uh oh, are the moneyball nerds invading tennis?

---

Great stuff.

I think tennis is ripe for a moneyball invasion. It's a fairly quantifiable sport. The scoring system is essentially a classic markov chain. If you are a huge nerd -- tennis or otherwise -- and have a few spare minutes, go to google scholar and search for peer-reviewed articles on tennis modeling and ranking. It's un-flipping-believable.

There an entire book on it as well. In case you need some light reading material:

quote:

---

I personally think Stan would rip through Nadal right now, and have my doubts about Nadal getting through Dimitrov. Someone who plays up on the baseline and hits through the court is still going to have the advantage against Nadal right now. His ball is still sitting up to me. Raonic played like crap from what I saw.

---

As a general matter, I would not be bullish on Grigor's chances against Nadal, but what I saw from Grigs against Goffin was Grigs 2.0. That was literally the best I've ever seen him play. He certainly has the ability to beat Nadal playing like that, but I still see a Nadal win as the more likely outcome. The Grigs I saw against Goffy was completely dialed in, but Rafa's game has a way of messing with the rhythm of his opponent. I don't see Playboy Grigs being able to sustain that high a level against Nadal. And certainly not for the entirety of a 5-set affair.

If you've got a gun to my head, I'll say Rafa in 4 sets. Here in real life, I doubt I will be tossing down any wagers on the outcome.