re: The ATL Thread: 2021 World Champion Atlanta Braves Offseason Thread

It's 100% true that we won the WS with some tape and paperclip style maneuvering, but the corollary is that we won the WS without one of the top 2-3 young players in the game who is likely to be a generational talent, without the AS/SS in Ozuna, without potentially our future ace, etc.

And we've arguably gotten better on top of that.

I think there is credibility to the argument that a lot of the Braves success is based on performances where sustainability is still up in the air. We have a very young pitching staff with a limited history and even less history of all performing at a high level at the same time. At the same time, we're approaching the point where that's not the case anymore with our young core, where we do have enough data to think Riley's rejuvenation is for real, that Fried can be a genuine frontline ace over the longterm, etc.

As for the Dodgers, the collapse aside, the Braves have gone from non-competitive with LA to being up 3-1 and then blowing through LA en route to a WS. We can't guarantee that'll be the status going forward, but the gap has obviously closed.

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And we've arguably gotten better on top of that.

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Idk, I think its a push at best because of the uncertainty. Riley, Olson, Dansby, Rosario, Duvall, and multiple bullpen guys either had career or completely out of the blue performances last year in the second half of the season and playoffs. Morton is already old and coming off an injury. Soroka has serious health questions (which tears me up because I started following him from his first start in Rome).

We've seen these "super bullpens" assembled before, and most have underwhelmed just due to the unpredictability of bullpen performance... Jansen has been declining for a while, the Dodgers could have paid him if they wanted to and they didn't. McHugh is coming off a year where his stats show marked improvement across the board, but did the Rays fix something with him or is that an outlier? Smith is established, so he should be a piece you can be pretty certain about. Do you really trust both Minter and Matzek to be what they were in October again? I would bet money at least one struggles this year, again see the bullpen unpredictability point.

I just think there is a lot more certainty with the Dodgers than the Braves, hence my issue with people just assuming we have passed them up. Missing the playoffs entirely is a realistic outcome for us (Though I wouldn't necessarily bet even a small amount on it), and I just can't see the same uncertainties with this Dodgers team.

Im a nega-fan though, I figured we were cooked when Ronald went down last year and we lost Ozuna. Doesn't mean I don't think this team won't be good or even very good, I'm just tempering expectations.

Literally everything you said about career years or out of the blue years is wrong, so I'll just respond to a couple of other points.

McHugh has always been fantastic as a reliever. He has a career 2.49 Era and .617 OPS against as a reliever. So it has nothing to do with the Rays fixing him, as long as he is healthy he will be good.

Jansen showed decline in 19 and 20, but had a bounce back year in 21. He was nearly unhittable in the second half and showed a return to form. His fastball velocity isn't what it once was, but he's still an excellent closer. His best value though is that he'll allow us to continue using Matzek as a high leverage reliever to put out fires.

The true value of a stacked pen is that if one guy has an off year it won't matter too much, because you have a bunch of other guys to pick up the slack. So if Minter has a season with poor control it's not going to hurt us too badly when he's the fifth option/lefty matchup guy.

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Who is better than the Braves in the East?

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Who was better in the West than the Dodgers last year?

Giants got a game on them (107 v 106 wins) and I don't think the Dodgers would have taken a single position player from the Giants to replace one of their own, and just a few of the pitchers.

Point being, Philly and the lolMets CAN win it in a weird sport like baseball, especially if its a weird year in that weird sport.

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SteelerBravesDawg

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Ahh this explains a lot

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Saw this and stopped reading your post

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Dude gave facts.

So you're one of those. Got it.

This thread has become insufferable and just about unreadable

He may have later in the post, but I stopped when I saw the obvious BS. We had multiple guys pop off last year in completely unexpected ways, specifically in the playoffs. The 2021 playoffs is the best some of those guys will ever play in their careers, and thank god they did it so we could win one.

I'm his Siamese twin that's stuck to the back of his head and sometimes takes over control, but he can't remember the times when I'm in charge

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We had multiple guys pop off last year in completely unexpected ways, specifically in the playoffs

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Yep, but we're not relying on those guys to repeat that. Riley looks like his jump last year wasn't a fluke, and we're getting Acuna and Ozuna back. There's no reason we shouldn't be NL East favorites again.