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re: The Astros have to bring Cole back, right?
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:18 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:18 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
I just cant help but feel like letting him walk due to feeling it being too pricey is just such a bad thing, optically. That's the feeling I kind of got for the situation at the beginning of the year but it seems like it has changed, or at least it should have changed
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 7:22 pm
2
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:21 pm to WestCoastAg
Astros will bring him back unless he is set on 5-7 years at 35-40 million.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:28 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
I usually dont like the idea of long term money and years for a pitcher who will be 30 next year, but this has to be an exception for the Astros
I don't think they're going to make an exception to the system. Does it make sense to pay through the nose for a player who is probably RIGHT NOW at his peak? You're tying up a lot of money for someone who will be almost certainly retired in just 2-3 years.
Research on average career length and age of pitchers in MLB
The average career length is 10 years, with 95% of pitchers being within a year of that. Cole was drafted in 2011 thus has an expected career retirement in 2021. Should the Astros pay 150 million, or some other higher number, for a pitcher who will have a 95% chance of declining and retiring in 2-3 years? Seems like a bad bet.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:30 pm to cokebottleag
Well that presumably applies to all pitchers and not ace-level starters.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:35 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
Well that presumably applies to all pitchers and not ace-level starters.
If you read the study, they ran regressions for ERA, K/BB, and so forth.
The only variable the data showed had any effect was innings pitched before 25, and contrary to conventional wisdom, the guys with longer careers pitched more before 25. Likely more correlation than causation.
I'll look for more research, but this has a really large sample size and seems thorough, so hard to argue with.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:39 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
You're tying up a lot of money for someone who will be almost certainly retired in just 2-3 years.
I think Cole has 4-5 years minimum. I still dont think long term money is in the cards. The Astros could lose Cole and still compete for a WS next season.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:44 pm to tiggerthetooth
Cole is modeling Verlander, dude is switching till he is 38
Posted on 10/15/19 at 7:53 pm to tduecen
quote:
Cole is modeling Verlander, dude is switching till he is 38
You are welcome to make a $150 million dollar bet on that <5% probability, by all means.
Here's an article this time where the author runs a check on average age of a pitcher vs average fWAR (his contribution of wins added vs what a replacement level player would provide).
Pitchers peak at 26-27 and go downhill fast from there.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 8:45 pm to DJ3K
quote:
biggest and best stage
Not everyone in this country starts jerking when the Yankees are mentioned and there are plenty of talents in their teens and 20's that are sick to fricking death of the Yanks and Sox.
That being said, Cole grew up a Yankee fan but its likely he's going to break the bank with the LA Angels of Anaheim of California, America unfortunately. I really wish the Stros would sign him though, but cant fault him for getting paid.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 8:47 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
who will be almost certainly retired in just 2-3 years.
Lmao what
There’s a difference between “on the decline” and “retired”
quote:
The average career length is 10 years, with 95% of pitchers being within a year of that.
There’s nothing “average” about Cole. If you’re arguing he could be on the decline and not worth 35m or so in three years I can definitely buy that. But LOL at thinking he will be out of baseball in three years
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 8:53 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Is he glossing over the fact Cole is 29 and won't be 30 until September of next year? Even a 5 year deal for him should be worth the money
Posted on 10/15/19 at 8:53 pm to tduecen
He is glossing over a lot
Posted on 10/15/19 at 8:54 pm to cokebottleag
Cole will end up in LA pitching for Angels
They have the history of doing dead end deals
Trout with the bat and Cole on the mound, with no chance to win anything but a WC game
They have the history of doing dead end deals
Trout with the bat and Cole on the mound, with no chance to win anything but a WC game
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:03 pm to WestCoastAg
Take this however you want, but rumor in Arlington is that Rendon is off the board with the Nats run and Cole is the primary focus with essentially a blank check.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:04 pm to McCaigBro69
Having the stadium look exactly the same can only help too IMO
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:09 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
I’m pointing out statistics that say 95% of careers for pitchers, whether they’re high profile starters or relievers, end after 10 years.
Talent does not have an effect on the duration of the career.
You’re welcome to melt about it. Cole’s talent today has no significance for his expected career span. The Astros should let him go next year if they’re smart.
Talent does not have an effect on the duration of the career.
You’re welcome to melt about it. Cole’s talent today has no significance for his expected career span. The Astros should let him go next year if they’re smart.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:11 pm to WestCoastAg
Without a doubt.
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:14 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Talent does not have an effect on the duration of the career.
this is about the dumbest thing you could possibly say.
you think if verlanders ERA ballooned to 7 after year 10 he'd still be in the league?
guys retire because they cant find a starting gig and teams would rather take a chance on a young guy with potential than a guy past his prime that is just a middling starter
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:20 pm to McCaigBro69
And the rumor on Dodger boards from a guy who is involved with farhan is basically saying the giants are expecting the dodgers to go insane this offseason and make a run at both
Its kawhi time all over again
Someone find RDA and young arye
Its kawhi time all over again
Someone find RDA and young arye
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 10/15/19 at 9:26 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
I’m pointing out statistics that say 95% of careers for pitchers, whether they’re high profile starters or relievers, end after 10 years.
Talent does not have an effect on the duration of the career.
You’re welcome to melt about it. Cole’s talent today has no significance for his expected career span. The Astros should let him go next year if they’re smart.
I’m not melting about it, and I’m not going to read through whatever study it was you posted.
You are flat out wrong about him retiring in three years simply because no team anywhere is going to punt on the like 180m guaranteed dollars he will have left no matter how much he regresses. Chris Davis has been the absolute worst player in baseball for three years and is still on a roster collecting paychecks. Baseball is littered with bad contracts that have regressed to or below replacement level where they are still playing. You saying that one point like it’s fact makes it obvious you don’t follow the game or how teams handle bad contracts they give out. They don’t just eat it at the first sign of regression and cut the guy loose.
I would bet a very sizable amount on Cole being on a roster in three years. Pretty much the only chance you have of being right is him suffering some debilitating injury.
And FWIW I don’t necessarily disagree with your main point that they shouldn’t resign him.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 9:28 pm
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