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re: Tennis gambling is for the real degenerates

Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:47 am to
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:47 am to




quote:

You clearly have poor reading comprehension and critical thinking skills.

NBA series are 7 games not because a team is "due" but because of the nature of the game. 1 and done doesn't work in a league where there is so much parity.


What the frick do you think I've been saying dickmouth? You've restated my point nicely. Thanks for illustrating that for 30 minutes you were "Charly" from the beginning and end of "flowers for algernon". Enjoy your time in the middle of the book.



quote:

If it's so dumb, then you'd be able to refute it with logic and reason instead of juvenile insults.

Fact of the matter is this:

Players and teams are not "due" to win or lose based on past performance.


The answer to both is no.

You should probably take a couple courses in probability and statistics...


You refuted it yourself. Take a course in not being a failure at posting and in life.

Did you read what I wrote? Did you read the part about Wawrinka being really good at tennis? And knowing Fed's game inside and out. And being four years younger than Fed? All of these factors contributing to my ultimate conclusion that the H2H record was not indicative of their respective tennis prowess at time equals present.

Jesus tittyfricking Christ. You wrote the dumbest thing that I've read in at least two weeks. Which is saying something, because I've been on the SEC rant. Equating elite professional tennis players and their chances of beating one another in three set matches, with the fricking gambler's fallacy absolutely, unequivocally, undeniably stupid.

We're all dumber for having read it. You receive zero points, and may god have mercy on your soul.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Not that it really matters, but Warinka lost so that win that he's due for against Federer will have to wait a little longer


If he's +800 the next time they play, you'd be wise to toss down on Stan the Man. If they play 7 more time, Stan is winning one, and that makes it a wise bet, and that was my point, and it was quite clear.

And then Flowers For Algernon guy rolled up on the scene, and started talking about dice.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:53 am to
quote:

... this thread had so much promise.


Feel free to rerail the derail.
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 12:12 pm to
Typical idiot degenerate, trying to talk yourself into believing that someone is "due".

And you're both stupid and thin-skinned.

I feel pity for you.

ETA: If you think a person has a chance to win based on matchup, then say that. But don't say someone is "due to win".

But it must really suck to be as miserable a person as you who can only resort to hurling puerile insults.
This post was edited on 10/11/12 at 12:16 pm
Posted by gizmoflak
Member since May 2007
11854 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 12:50 pm to
this thread reminds me to bet on LSU this weekend

I think they are due to score more than 12 points in an SEC game
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 12:54 pm to
This thread delivered so much unintentional comedy that it bordered on performance art. Soph is right about the Gambler's Fallacy, of course. Prior events do not impact future events. You are never due, and sample sizes are so small that no, the numbers do not have to even out from what you would expect.

But to watch someone so entirely lose it and accuse someone of being stupid while they themselves are defending a logical fallacy is simply brilliant. Thank you, internet.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87521 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

Soph is right about the Gambler's Fallacy, of course. Prior events do not impact future events.


I disagree here, this isn't a coin toss or a bunch of repeated independent events. Technically there is no gambler's fallacy here.
With that said being "due" is overrated.
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:12 pm to
Tennis matches are independent events.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87521 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

Tennis matches are independent events.


Come on that's simplistic.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

his thread delivered so much unintentional comedy that it bordered on performance art. Soph is right about the Gambler's Fallacy, of course. Prior events do not impact future events. You are never due, and sample sizes are so small that no, the numbers do not have to even out from what you would expect.


1) Soph is right in that he understands what the gambler's fallacy is
2) Soph is not right in thinking that that anything that I wrote comes even remotely close to touching upon the principles that might even be loosely analogized to those you elucidated above.
3) You are similarly not right.

I am a performer. And certainly an artist. This much I will concede.

My apparent miscue in this thread was using the word "due" instead of "primed for". The fact you and other imbeciles are either unable or unwilling to utilize this valuable tool known as "context" speaks to your resulting failures at posting and in life.

And let me assure you that ole BR21 didn't "lose it" and is in fact a touch xanax'd up. You see, I have this gift. I can write with various tones without being personally subjected to the emotions that those tones tend to convey. Some have argued that when it comes to tone chamaleonability, I am arguably even more prolific than your mother. But this is arguable.

What is not arguable is that the value to which I attached the listed odds of Wawrinka+800 was based on a line of reasoning which cannot be even tenuously* analogized to anything loosely** resembling the broadest reasonable construction of the term "gambler's fallacy".

Good day then.


__________________________
*Like the manner in which you grasp, and communicate via, the English language.

**Like the way your mother interprets standards of sexual prolificity.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

Tennis matches are independent events.


You ever played tennis? Or any other one on one sport?
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Come on that's simplistic.


Not simplistic; simply incorrect.
Posted by schlow mo
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2010
5245 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:29 pm to
:Slowclap:
Posted by gizmoflak
Member since May 2007
11854 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:40 pm to
I just want some BR21 football locks for Saturday

Is Sark due to beat Kiffen?

















Tennis is a pussy sport


Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:47 pm to
I'm pretty sure I'll beat you in tennis.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

I'm pretty sure I'll beat you in tennis.


How sure are you?
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Tennis is a pussy sport


Yeah, those were the days.

Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

You ever played tennis? Or any other one on one sport?

Yes. And yes.
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

I just want some BR21 football locks for Saturday

Is Sark due to beat Kiffen?


I'm on Louisville.

I also like New Mexico.

The PAC is a tough conference to predict this year. Exception: Oregon.

Will LSU be able to prevent the Cocks from getting substantial penetration.*

*Via their defensive line, of course. What did you think I was referring to?
Posted by bobbyray21
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts
Posted on 10/11/12 at 2:27 pm to
quote:

Yes. And yes.


And you believe that successive tennis matches involving the same two opponents are independent events? With each match having complete mutual exclusivity from the others?

So, as one of a thousand possible examples, you would argue that Nadal's victory over Federer in the 2008 Wimby final was in no way, shape, or form influenced by what he learned from the mistakes he made in his losses to Fed in the 2006 and 2007 finals?
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