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Tennis gambling is for the real degenerates
Posted on 10/11/12 at 5:29 am
Posted on 10/11/12 at 5:29 am
Okay, yeah I got my happy arse out of bed at 6:10am so I could toss a dollar on Andy Murray at -800 against Ukranian junkballer Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Is that wrong? I mean, Free Money is Free Money, yes?
Methinks the only thing Dolgopolov is winning today is a "most feminine facial features" contest. I'd venture to guess he wins those competitions on the regular.
Is that wrong? I mean, Free Money is Free Money, yes?
Methinks the only thing Dolgopolov is winning today is a "most feminine facial features" contest. I'd venture to guess he wins those competitions on the regular.
2
Posted on 10/11/12 at 5:35 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Methinks the only thing Dolgopolov is winning today is a "most feminine facial features" contest. I'd venture to guess he wins those competitions on the regular.
quote:Sounds like a ripe one for a Russian mob fix.
Andy Murray at -800 against Ukranian junkballer Alexandr Dolgopolov.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 5:45 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:
Sounds like a ripe one for a Russian mob fix.
They can't really do much in the way of fixing when the Russian guy -- Ukranian, close enough -- is the underdog.
But in a throwaway tournament where the Russian (or thereabouts) fella is the favorite, I would be very cautious. They had Davydenko in their pocket and he was a steady top ten player making a nice living off prize money.
Excellent article on that: Evidence shows lots of shady shite
Posted on 10/11/12 at 7:03 am to bobbyray21
Interesting read bobbyray
Posted on 10/11/12 at 7:30 am to BROffshoreTigerFan
quote:
Interesting read bobbyray
will read again
Posted on 10/11/12 at 7:36 am to bobbyray21
That is one ugly dude.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:20 am to LSU Coyote
quote:
That is one ugly dude.
Only a mother could love a face like that.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:34 am to bobbyray21
When I make tennis plays, I'm on the favorite 85% of the time, but today actually presented a really nice underdog play that I thought about going in on, then forgot, and then it was too late.
Roger Federer-1500
Stan Wawrinka+800
A couple reasons why would be retarded to put a play on Fed and smart to drop a lil sumpin sumpin on Stan.
1. Wawrinka is a good tennis player. Currently 17 in the world, he has been as high as 9.
2. They are both from Switzerland and are good friends
3. Fed is 11-1 lifetime against Wawrinka
You might look at factor #3 and argue that it suggests betting on Wawrinka would be stupid, but I disagree. What that career record tells me is that Wawrinka is due for a win. Fed is the better player than Wawrinka, but he isn't THAT much better at this late stage in his career. Moreover, Fed isn't gonna terribly upset if his buddy advances to the quarters at his expense.
I wish I would have tossed down at least 25 on it. I even consciously thought about doing it, but then next time I looked at the scores, the match had started.
Wawrinka won the first set and they are about to go to a tiebreaker in the second set.
Roger Federer-1500
Stan Wawrinka+800
A couple reasons why would be retarded to put a play on Fed and smart to drop a lil sumpin sumpin on Stan.
1. Wawrinka is a good tennis player. Currently 17 in the world, he has been as high as 9.
2. They are both from Switzerland and are good friends
3. Fed is 11-1 lifetime against Wawrinka
You might look at factor #3 and argue that it suggests betting on Wawrinka would be stupid, but I disagree. What that career record tells me is that Wawrinka is due for a win. Fed is the better player than Wawrinka, but he isn't THAT much better at this late stage in his career. Moreover, Fed isn't gonna terribly upset if his buddy advances to the quarters at his expense.
I wish I would have tossed down at least 25 on it. I even consciously thought about doing it, but then next time I looked at the scores, the match had started.
Wawrinka won the first set and they are about to go to a tiebreaker in the second set.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:41 am to bobbyray21
BTW, Murray won 2 and 2 in about an hour. I should have gone two dollars.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:45 am to bobbyray21
quote:
What that career record tells me is that Wawrinka is due for a win.
This is why you're going to lose your money.
What you just wrote is known as The Gambler's Fallacy.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:51 am to Sophandros
quote:
This is why you're going to lose your money.
What you just wrote is known as The Gambler's Fallacy.
This isn't a fricking roulette wheel, dumbass. We're talking about a tennis player who is four years younger than the guy he is playing and not that much worse. Play enough times and he'll win.
There was a guy my age in my hometown that was clearly better than me at tennis, but if we played 10 times, I'd win once.
You are a moron. And I mean that in the most respectful way possible, but what you wrote is the dumbest thing I've read all month.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:55 am to bobbyray21
Saying a player or a team is "due" for a win is the moronic thing, not pointing out that you're exhibiting the Gambler's Fallacy.
Tulane hasn't won in 15 straight games. I guess they're "due" to win against SMU this week, huh?
Oh, wait, they're 17 point dogs at home.
Tulane hasn't won in 15 straight games. I guess they're "due" to win against SMU this week, huh?
Oh, wait, they're 17 point dogs at home.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 8:58 am to Sophandros
quote:
Tulane hasn't won in 15 straight games. I guess they're "due" to win against SMU this week, huh?
If they were playing Memphis in those 15 games, yes.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 9:01 am to Sophandros
quote:
Saying a player or a team is "due" for a win is the moronic thing, not pointing out that you're exhibiting the Gambler's Fallacy.
Tulane hasn't won in 15 straight games. I guess they're "due" to win against SMU this week, huh?
Oh, wait, they're 17 point dogs at home.
I hope you understand why what you are saying is so abjectly and indisputably retarded.
Under your rationale, an NBA series would never go 7 games. It would always be a 4 game sweep.
What you're saying is so dumb that I"m having difficulty articulating the magnitude of how dumb it really is.
A bag of dicks? No no, way dumber.
A bag of hammers? Nope. significantly less intelligent than said bag.
Corky from life goes on? Nope. Corky never said anything as dumb as what you've said here today.
The gambler's fallacy. Jesus tittyfricking Christ. You rode the short bus to school, yes?
This post was edited on 10/11/12 at 9:05 am
Posted on 10/11/12 at 9:10 am to Sophandros
quote:
Sophandros
The unbridled idiocy of your posts is something that I just can't emphasize enough.
Some advice: from me to you. Respectfully. Never go full retard
I hope this helps going forward.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:00 am to bobbyray21
quote:
I hope you understand why what you are saying is so abjectly and indisputably retarded.
Under your rationale, an NBA series would never go 7 games. It would always be a 4 game sweep.
You clearly have poor reading comprehension and critical thinking skills.
NBA series are 7 games not because a team is "due" but because of the nature of the game. 1 and done doesn't work in a league where there is so much parity.
quote:
What you're saying is so dumb that I"m having difficulty articulating the magnitude of how dumb it really is.
If it's so dumb, then you'd be able to refute it with logic and reason instead of juvenile insults.
Fact of the matter is this:
Players and teams are not "due" to win or lose based on past performance.
If I'm a career .300 hitter who is currently on an 0-20 streak at the plate, am I "due" for a hit? What if I'm a career .200 hitter?
The answer to both is no.
You should probably take a couple courses in probability and statistics...
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:01 am to bobbyray21
quote:
They can't really do much in the way of fixing when the Russian guy
If they have a "talk" with Murray, you never know.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:03 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:
If they have a "talk" with Murray, you never know
For some reason, people underestimate the Russian mob...
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:29 am to Sophandros
... this thread had so much promise.
Posted on 10/11/12 at 10:36 am to Sophandros
Not that it really matters, but Warinka lost so that win that he's due for against Federer will have to wait a little longer
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