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Started By
Message
re: Tennis 2019 -- The Unofficial Non-GS Thread
Posted on 4/14/19 at 2:53 am to bayoucracka
Posted on 4/14/19 at 2:53 am to bayoucracka
I'm curious as F to see the odds for Felix vs. Zverev, assuming Felix takes care of business in his first match.
Alex -175?
Alex -175?
1
Posted on 4/14/19 at 5:09 am to bayoucracka
quote:
I'm curious as F to see the odds for Felix vs. Zverev, assuming Felix takes care of business in his first match.
Alex -175?
Tricky one. If I'm the bookie and setting the odds, I might go Alex-160. If I'm guessing as to what the odds will actually be in real life, I might say -210.
If it came in any higher than that, I would prolly throw fade at Alex.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 5:11 am to bayoucracka
quote:
Almost forgot to pay tribute to possibly my favorite shot of all time. After about 200 views, I'm fully convinced he meant to hit it there and it wasn't a total frame job.
LINK
I like the one similar to that one but where he does it no-look. I can't recall what tournament it's from. I could probably google it and figure it out.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 5:13 am to bayoucracka
quote:
Main draw matches on a Sunday... what? They don't F around in this tourney.
Hurkacz vs. Coric
Berrettini vs. Dimitrov
Pouille vs. Wawrinka
Delbonis vs. Ramos
Props to Fritz for being the only Murican to take a shot. Too bad Tsonga will crush him in the first round.
At least there will be a few Americans in Barcelona.
I already set my fantasy lineup and so did one other guy, but two guys haven't set theirs, and so I sent them a blank draw, texted them to text in their lineups when they woke up, and put them on the honor system not to check any scores.
Filed under, "nobodycaresdude"
Posted on 4/14/19 at 5:20 am to MidnightVibe
Start around 2:45: LINK
Posted on 4/14/19 at 8:13 am to MidnightVibe
Monfils withdrew. Walkover for Diego.
ETA: nevermind, Diego has Edmund.
ETA: nevermind, Diego has Edmund.
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 9:23 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 8:17 am to MidnightVibe
It’s hard to get into these European clay court tournaments when you can’t watch any match before the semifinals due to your work schedule.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:20 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
It’s hard to get into these European clay court tournaments when you can’t watch any match before the semifinals due to your work schedule.
DVR, yo.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:20 am to MidnightVibe
Gizmo's boy Benny P fittin' to collect some hardware.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:25 am to MidnightVibe
Benny was playing with the collar popped yesterday. Could he be any more of a hipster douchebag?
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 9:30 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 4:07 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Could he be any more of a hipster douchebag?
I don't know whether he's a douchebag, but he's definitely a hipster.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 10:09 pm to MidnightVibe
I was debating doing a preview until I remembered that betting is not legal in most states. Oh well.
Nah... first rounds are tricky to begin with and they’re even worse with a change of surface. I still might give it a shot after I finish these damn taxes.
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 4/15/19 at 1:39 am to bayoucracka
(45) Basilashvili -122 vs. Fucsovics (43)
(14) Bautista-Agut -500 vs. Millman (65)
(47) Lajovic -256 vs. Jaziri (99)
(154) Medvedev -172 vs. Sousa (66)
(52) Chardy -192 vs. Kukushkin (95)
(24) Kohlschreiber -312 vs. Daniel (71)
(19) Cecchinato -333 vs. Dzumhur (102)
(49) Shapovalov -149 vs. Struff (61)
(13) Goffin -270 vs. Andreozzi (109)
(35) Munar -2000 vs. Catarina (NR)
(39) Delbonis -286 vs. Klizan (34)
(92) Rublev -120 vs. Fognini (16)
(18) Bedene -238 vs. Albot (130)
(22) Edmund -159 vs. Schwartzman (7)
(83) Sonego -179 vs. Seppi (64)
I decided to go a different route and use the Clay ELO Ratings from Tennis Abstract to see how they stack up compared to the betting odds, and try to find an edge there.
The site says that the overall ELO ratings include players who played 20 or more matches in the last 52 weeks. For the surface-specific ratings (clay in this case), that rule must not apply since Federer is ranked 33rd and hasn't played a match on the red stuff since 2016. But, other than that, the rankings do seem to pass the eye test.
With that in mind, here are the biggest discrepancies:
(154) Medvedev -172 vs. Sousa (66)
(92) Rublev -120 vs. Fognini (16)
(22) Edmund -159 vs. Schwartzman (7)
Now I don't want to just blindly bet the side that appears to have value, although that could be an option. I'm more concerned with figuring out how or why the oddsmakers come up with their numbers.
In the case of Medvedev, we know he's a clay klutz, but there's a point where just being a better tennis player is enough to win on any surface. I'm not sure if that applies here though. Sousa beat him last year (in Portugal) 7-6, 7-5 in their only previous meeting on dirt. Sousa also has more career clay experience and he's not in bad form considering he won 2 matches in Miami before falling to Anderson in 2 tight sets.
This one is puzzling. Given the above information, I would have expected Sousa to be favored. I have a +170 at one of my books, so I can't resist a small play on the Portugese here.
Speaking of puzzling... Andrey Rublev is favored over Fabio Fognini on clay. Yes, he has played 2 qualifying matches in Monte Carlo already, but beating Tomic and Humbert is not all that impressive.
Yes, Fognini isn't in the greatest form. He just lost to shitty Vesely in Marrakech. But we know he's not always there mentally, especially for 250 events. I would imagine he picks up his level here.
Rublev is still too much of an unknown at this point. He's significantly better than his ATP ranking of 90 and, by extension, probably significantly better than his clay ELO ranking of 92. And his garbage 2nd serve isn't as much of a liability on clay as it is on other surfaces. He also doesn't mind grinding either.
I feel like the odds are begging for Fognini money, meaning Rublev probably wins, but I'll pass.
Edmund vs. Diego is a similar match. The lesser clay player (Edmund) has played a couple clay matches already, while Schwartzman hasn't played since Miami. And Diego appears to be out of form. Another one to avoid for me, as I struggle predicting Schwartzman's matches in general, and this is a total crapshoot.
(14) Bautista-Agut -500 vs. Millman (65)
(47) Lajovic -256 vs. Jaziri (99)
(154) Medvedev -172 vs. Sousa (66)
(52) Chardy -192 vs. Kukushkin (95)
(24) Kohlschreiber -312 vs. Daniel (71)
(19) Cecchinato -333 vs. Dzumhur (102)
(49) Shapovalov -149 vs. Struff (61)
(13) Goffin -270 vs. Andreozzi (109)
(35) Munar -2000 vs. Catarina (NR)
(39) Delbonis -286 vs. Klizan (34)
(92) Rublev -120 vs. Fognini (16)
(18) Bedene -238 vs. Albot (130)
(22) Edmund -159 vs. Schwartzman (7)
(83) Sonego -179 vs. Seppi (64)
I decided to go a different route and use the Clay ELO Ratings from Tennis Abstract to see how they stack up compared to the betting odds, and try to find an edge there.
The site says that the overall ELO ratings include players who played 20 or more matches in the last 52 weeks. For the surface-specific ratings (clay in this case), that rule must not apply since Federer is ranked 33rd and hasn't played a match on the red stuff since 2016. But, other than that, the rankings do seem to pass the eye test.
With that in mind, here are the biggest discrepancies:
(154) Medvedev -172 vs. Sousa (66)
(92) Rublev -120 vs. Fognini (16)
(22) Edmund -159 vs. Schwartzman (7)
Now I don't want to just blindly bet the side that appears to have value, although that could be an option. I'm more concerned with figuring out how or why the oddsmakers come up with their numbers.
In the case of Medvedev, we know he's a clay klutz, but there's a point where just being a better tennis player is enough to win on any surface. I'm not sure if that applies here though. Sousa beat him last year (in Portugal) 7-6, 7-5 in their only previous meeting on dirt. Sousa also has more career clay experience and he's not in bad form considering he won 2 matches in Miami before falling to Anderson in 2 tight sets.
This one is puzzling. Given the above information, I would have expected Sousa to be favored. I have a +170 at one of my books, so I can't resist a small play on the Portugese here.
Speaking of puzzling... Andrey Rublev is favored over Fabio Fognini on clay. Yes, he has played 2 qualifying matches in Monte Carlo already, but beating Tomic and Humbert is not all that impressive.
Yes, Fognini isn't in the greatest form. He just lost to shitty Vesely in Marrakech. But we know he's not always there mentally, especially for 250 events. I would imagine he picks up his level here.
Rublev is still too much of an unknown at this point. He's significantly better than his ATP ranking of 90 and, by extension, probably significantly better than his clay ELO ranking of 92. And his garbage 2nd serve isn't as much of a liability on clay as it is on other surfaces. He also doesn't mind grinding either.
I feel like the odds are begging for Fognini money, meaning Rublev probably wins, but I'll pass.
Edmund vs. Diego is a similar match. The lesser clay player (Edmund) has played a couple clay matches already, while Schwartzman hasn't played since Miami. And Diego appears to be out of form. Another one to avoid for me, as I struggle predicting Schwartzman's matches in general, and this is a total crapshoot.
This post was edited on 4/15/19 at 1:52 am
Posted on 4/15/19 at 1:50 am to bayoucracka
Medvedev's last two clay seasons, presented without comment.
Posted on 4/15/19 at 7:50 pm to Bunk Moreland
That really is one of the most beautiful athletic venues in the world.
Posted on 4/16/19 at 12:11 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
Start around 2:45: LINK
I missed this last night. That's some Krygios-like shite.
When you first mentioned it, I thought you were talking about one of these shots... LINK
Posted on 4/16/19 at 12:37 am to bayoucracka
quote:
With that in mind, here are the biggest discrepancies:
(154) Medvedev -172 vs. Sousa (66)
(92) Rublev -120 vs. Fognini (16)
(22) Edmund -159 vs. Schwartzman (7)
If you played all 3 underdogs who are "better" on clay, you would have gone 2-1. Unsurprisingly I put actual money on the only loser of the 3, though that's irrelevant to what I was aiming for.
Posted on 4/16/19 at 11:21 am to bayoucracka
quote:
Speaking of puzzling... Andrey Rublev is favored over Fabio Fognini on clay. Yes, he has played 2 qualifying matches in Monte Carlo already, but beating Tomic and Humbert is not all that impressive.
Yes, Fognini isn't in the greatest form. He just lost to shitty Vesely in Marrakech. But we know he's not always there mentally, especially for 250 events. I would imagine he picks up his level here.
Rublev is still too much of an unknown at this point. He's significantly better than his ATP ranking of 90 and, by extension, probably significantly better than his clay ELO ranking of 92. And his garbage 2nd serve isn't as much of a liability on clay as it is on other surfaces. He also doesn't mind grinding either.
I feel like the odds are begging for Fognini money, meaning Rublev probably wins, but I'll pass.
That is puzzling. I've been slipping on my tennis gambling, and didn't even say that. I might have played it.
Posted on 4/16/19 at 11:31 am to MidnightVibe
Fritz moving on after a retirement from Jo Willie.
Coric in trouble.
Did Stan just bagel ceccy?
Down goes Swaggy K.
Down goes Cilic.
Coric in trouble.
Did Stan just bagel ceccy?
Down goes Swaggy K.
Down goes Cilic.
Posted on 4/16/19 at 11:34 am to MidnightVibe
Definitely premature, but Shitsy pants and Daniil could be fun. Those two don't like each other.
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