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re: TAMU just MAY have hired themselves a good coach

Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:11 pm to
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61035 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:11 pm to
That's what most of the recruiting guru's think but A&M had success recruiting LC in the past.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
478562 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:14 pm to
quinn loves him some TAMU. his sister is open about it
This post was edited on 1/6/13 at 2:15 pm
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
25066 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

LSU could have lost 4-5 in the SEC this year and 2010. Hypotheticals are meaningless,


Of course they are. That's why I thought we were playing odds here. Using historical facts.

quote:

I'm willing to be you didn't think A&M could compete with that offense


This is true, and I don't have to crawfish. The kid is amazing, and A&M defense even played better than I would have guessed, but.......no championship. They will have to run the gamut each and every year. And the coordinators will stay one step ahead, and the pressure on Sumlin's system will put too much emphasis on the pass, and too much production from the QB position.

quote:

You do not have to forego defense to have a more open offense.


This is where we may differ. I believe there is a direct correlation. Ball control and clock control are defense. How many times do you see these Sumlin offenses end up third and short without the personnel to keep it on the ground. I cringe everytime I see these situations and the QB takes a snap from the shotgun.

quote:

I personally prefer a more pro style passing attack like USC and Miami


We can agree on this. I think Saban's got a great mix going on right now, and to a lesser extent, so does Brian Kelly. McCarron and Golson have been great managers. Obviously, McCarron has more experience, and both have stretched the field well, McCarron with his arm, and Golson with both his arm and feet. This is what LSU and Florida lacked.

Last year, Lee and Jefferson connected on many deep passes, mostly to RR. This was key in our success. Mettenberger and Driskill were awful in accomplishing this. You can complain about receivers, lack of protection, etc., but accuracy was the most important reason.

quote:

I don't see how it is difficult to find and develop a game manager at QB


I don't think it's difficult with a competent staff. I'm convinced Miles feels compelled to justify his salary, and meddles too much. If not, he allows his OL mentality to influence his choices of offensive coordination. He needs to get outside of his comfort zone within his staff to equal out his tendencies.

quote:

Saban's way requires you to recruit the best class and have have more talent than everyone else


This applies to the entire SEC, and emphasis is placed on defense, with many of the elite talented high school players ending up on defense, even if they played offense in high school. Saban wants Fournette at LB, etc., etc.
Just another reason why Sumlin ain't marching through this conference without developing some ball control short yardage philosophies that include being able to grind out yards.

It's so coincidental how these offenses always have average at best defenses, don't you think?

I've enjoyed the discussion, and I've had a few with you over the years on many subjects. We share a lot of views, but we probably differ on this one.
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
25066 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:33 pm to
quote:

Alabama is the top program, not because they run a ball control offense


I disagree.

quote:

If it was a simple as just running a ball control offense, everyone would do it.


Not everyone has access to all the defensive and line talent the Southeast has.

quote:

Hell, Saban's mentor and defensive guru has been running a wide open attack for years now and winning at a high level


Well, if you can afford to hinge the success of your program on the 2 kids a year that can run that offense to perfection year in and year out, even though you won't have time to develop that talent or keep it, good luck.

And, I personally think NE lacks the type of short yardage ability to win it all. They shotgun short yardage all the time. I don't think Belicheck is choosing this more than being forced to use it.

Sort of like Shula with Marino, who never won a championship.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61035 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

Using historical facts


This is not an historical fact.

quote:

There are seasons out of the last four that Oregon could have lost 3 games within that season in the SEC


I don't think Oregon loses more than 2 in the SEC last year or this depending on who's schedule they played maybe less.

quote:

The kid is amazing, and A&M defense even played better than I would have guessed, but.......no championship


Its one season and they will finish in the top 10 and start next year in the top 5. Using only titles is a silly way to measure quality of scheme, but especially in CFB where the champ is determined by a vote. Alabama has just as many loses this year as Oregon and last year as OSU.

quote:

And the coordinators will stay one step ahead, and the pressure on Sumlin's system will put too much emphasis on the pass, and too much production from the QB position.


I love how people act like offense's can't also adapt. Hell, the explosion of the various versions of the spread are adaptions to defense. The WCO was adapting to defense. That's how football evolves. Historically the thing that's given Saban's D the most trouble is mobile QB's.

Also, I don't really get your point about too much production from the QB position. That's offense at every level of FB. Obviously your chances of winning are better when you have a great QB, but the system can also help the QB.

quote:

How many times do you see these Sumlin offenses end up third and short without the personnel to keep it on the ground. I cringe everytime I see these situations and the QB takes a snap from the shotgun.


A&M can run, they have some great RB's and 2 1st round tackles. I don't know what they did in 3rd and short more often this year. By the same token, what does your ground and pound do in 3rd and long? Or when they fall behind?

quote:

It's so coincidental how these offenses always have average at best defenses, don't you think?


But see they really don't. Sometimes they do, but not always. For example West Virginia in 2007 was a top 10 D. OU had sick D's early in Stoops tenure, including 2003 and 2004. In 2010 Oregon was #34, that's above avg, top 3rd. By contrast Mich State was atop 5 D this year and went 7-6. Like i said, there's more than one way to win. Just because Bama is on top now, does not mean you have to do what they do to win.

quote:

've enjoyed the discussion, and I've had a few with you over the years on many subjects. We share a lot of views, but we probably differ on this one.


Agreed, good back and forth.
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
25066 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

I don't really get your point about too much production from the QB position


Carrying the ball, and having to be precise with passing.

quote:

But see they really don't. Sometimes they do, but not always. For example West Virginia in 2007 was a top 10 D. OU had sick D's early in Stoops tenure, including 2003 and 2004. In 2010 Oregon was #34, that's above avg, top 3rd. By contrast Mich State was atop 5 D this year and went 7-6. Like i said, there's more than one way to win. Just because Bama is on top now, does not mean you have to do what they do to win.


You're outside the SEC again.

quote:

A&M can run, they have some great RB's and 2 1st round tackles. I don't know what they did in 3rd and short more often this year. By the same token, what does your ground and pound do in 3rd and long? Or when they fall behind?


They convert at higher percentages, which keeps the ball, the best defense known to man. A&M did awesome on all third downs this year, probably more in the first half of games if I had to guess. And definitely from longer distances. Those odds will hold up about as well as Miles' on fourth down, and as well as his fakes on special teams have.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61035 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

Alabama is the top program, not because they run a ball control offense
I disagree.


Come on now. Alabama has always be a defense first, running team. Philosophically Saban is no different than pretty much every coach they've ever had there. That's why he is such a good fit. He's just a much better coach and recruiter than guys like Shula, but the basic style is the same.

Since this thread started at Texas A&M. Under RC Slocum in the 90's they were running that same conservative defense/run the ball and don't make a mistake on offense. How many titles did they win?

quote:

Not everyone has access to all the defensive and line talent the Southeast has.


exactly, but that doesn't mean SEC teams have to run an uber conservative offense to succeed. Run USC's offense, they played great D.

quote:

Well, if you can afford to hinge the success of your program on the 2 kids a year that can run that offense to perfection year in and year out, even though you won't have time to develop that talent or keep it, good luck


Why do you have to hinge it on 1 or 2 guys? You can still recruit great defensive players. To do what Alabama is doing requires a rare coach. Frankly its much easier to find an elite QB than a coach that good.

quote:

Carrying the ball, and having to be precise with passing


I don't know how many of JFF run's are designed or improvising. But they have good RB's, so I would not be surprised to see them run those guys more going forward.

I think LSU proved last year, you can't completely ignore QB play

Having a good QB is key for just about any offense.
This post was edited on 1/6/13 at 4:35 pm
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
25066 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 6:46 pm to
Sorry, just got back from an athletic function.

I really have to question if you're picking up what I'm laying down.

quote:

Alabama has always be a defense first, running team


And, thus, they have more championships than everyone else. Saban did the same here. Miles continued the same offensive mind set.

I honestly think the run based, pro-style, ball control offense is going to fare better in the SEC, and therefore in all of college football, when it comes to winning championships.

As I type this, RG3 is showing why these offensive systems leave your entire program too vulnerable. Remember Dixon at Oregon, and what ensued that season.

LSU lost Flynn, and had Perrilloux with a sliced finger in the SECCG, yet still won. I know that's extreme, but you have to see that making your team less dependent on the exceptional athleticism of one individual is wise. Of course, LSU does it too an extreme.

quote:

that doesn't mean SEC teams have to run an uber conservative offense to succeed


We are in total agreeance on this point. But, having TE's and FB's is essential, in my mind.

quote:

Why do you have to hinge it on 1 or 2 guys


Because in my estimation, there are only 2 kids in each recruiting class that can successfully pull off that level of play within a 3 year window to bring your team a championship. I mean, you're talking an elite group here. Brady, Tebow and Newton (and even then they didn't run hurry up), maybe Manning (and I doubt that, because mobility would probably be an issue).

quote:

To do what Alabama is doing requires a rare coach


Miles is not rare, and only trails Saban by one re-do victory head to head. It's the combination of defense, special teams, and an offense that executes. Please don't confuse this statement as a defense of Coach Miles and our offense.

Miles has proven without a shadow of doubt in my mind that he is not capable of identifying and developing the type of QB needed to fit his own system. And he's not willing to give some the chance to prove they can do it.

Eight years of proof. Eight recruiting classes, staff changes, hell, even by accident, there was a game manager in the bunch that brought a championship (SEC '11).

quote:

I would not be surprised to see them run those guys more going forward.


I'm not sure. But, to me, it's more of the getting the number of plays in a game as high as they can. Running to the line and snapping it. We saw it with Clemson. They dominated us, and still needed a 4th and 16 prayer. Not to mention a perfect storm of other LSU miscues.

If A&M begins to work the clock and implements a short yardage scheme to convert on third and fourth downs when needed, I'll be more worried about LSU's chances.

quote:

Having a good QB is key for just about any offense.


Once again, totally agree. But, having an elite QB that rushes for almost as much as he throws and snaps the ball as quickly as he can on every play, is not going to win championships in the SEC against the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Florida.

I guess if you're looking for the stars to align, and you don't have access to the type of offensive line and defensive talent as those teams, then this system might be a great alternative.

Personally, I think A&M can get the horses, and I'm not disappointed to see them running Sumlin's scheme. Probably a better chance of seeing a post-Newton Auburn after Manziel, than a post-McElroy Alabama.

In conclusion, I don't see Sumlin's present offensive philosophy as a long term obstacle to LSU winning championships, and I think we're better off with a variation of the system we run. We need a QB with mobility, that can stretch the field with his arm, but not asked to carry the load on the ground, just avoid the rush and get yards when receivers are covered. Mauck and Flynn are great examples.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61035 posts
Posted on 1/6/13 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

I really have to question if you're picking up what I'm laying down.
quote:

And, thus, they have more championships than everyone else


I get what you are saying, but this is a case of correlation does not equal causation. Why didn't Bama win a title between Stallings and Saban if it is just about the system? And again, I'm not saying you can abandon defense, just that you can have a good offense and a good defense.
quote:

I honestly think the run based, pro-style, ball control offense is going to fare better in the SEC, and therefore in all of college football, when it comes to winning championships.


Texas, Florida and Auburn all disagree

quote:

Remember Dixon at Oregon, and what ensued that season.


They also dump Masoli before the 2010 season and went to the NCG. This year They lost Thomas and had Mariota. Florida was supposed to go from Tebow to Newton. And think about this: Texas went from VY to McCoy and could have followed with RGIII and Manziel

quote:

but you have to see that making your team less dependent on the exceptional athleticism of one individual is wise


Then it is incumbent on the coaches to have adequate back ups in place. Think it would have been different if Texas lost McCoy in the NCG and replaced him with RGIII? And while I don't think McCarron is an elite QB, I don't think Alabama would be where they are without him? I don't think McElroy could have engineered that drive against LSU or done as well as AJM did in the BCS CG last year.

quote:

We are in total agreeance on this point. But, having TE's and FB's is essential, in my mind.


The Giants run 4 WR sets, but still use TE's. Obviously NE and the Saints are doing the same.

quote:

Because in my estimation, there are only 2 kids in each recruiting class that can successfully pull off that level of play within a 3 year window to bring your team a championship. I mean, you're talking an elite group here. Brady, Tebow and Newton (and even then they didn't run hurry up), maybe Manning (and I doubt that, because mobility would probably be an issue).


I disagree. Chris Leak, Colt McCoy aren't at the level. And you aren't going to win with just those guys anyway, you need a great team. Florida had a shitload of Talent besides Tebow, a lot of it on D.Most Texas HS's are running the spread, so you can find guys.

quote:

But, having an elite QB that rushes for almost as much as he throws and snaps the ball as quickly as he can on every play, is not going to win championships in the SEC against the likes of Alabama, LSU, and Florida.


I guess we will see, but it has already happened and since we've had 2 guys before JFF in the last 6 years, how rare is it?

quote:

I think A&M can get the horses, and I'm not disappointed to see them running Sumlin's scheme. Probably a better chance of seeing a post-Newton Auburn after Manziel, than a post-McElroy Alabama.


I don't know if they will win an SEC or NC, but this is just silly. You like to find patterns where none exist to confirm your belief. Gene Chizik was 5-19 at Iowa State. By contrast they have won 6 games each of the last 2 seasons. He was a bad hire that got lucky with Malzan and Newton. There is nothing to suggest Sumlin will be anywere near that level bad.

quote:

I don't see Sumlin's present offensive philosophy as a long term obstacle to LSU winning championships


The 2 are not mutually exclusive. Both could win SEC titles in the next few years.

quote:

We need a QB with mobility, that can stretch the field with his arm, but not asked to carry the load on the ground


That's what I'd prefer. Luck and Rodgers are mobile without being running QB's.

I'll also note, Case Keenum did not run at UH under Sumlin, so I don't think that it is necessary for the offense to have a QB get 1400 yds, but more because JFF is just awesome.

Anyway, good discussion. I think there is more than one way to skin a cat, guess we will see going forward.

This post was edited on 1/6/13 at 7:54 pm
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