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Super Bowl Coin Toss is a great bet if you’re getting 50/50 odds

Posted on 2/8/25 at 5:44 pm
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 5:44 pm
If you lose, you know it wasn’t a bad bet.

If you win, you double your money.
Posted by Ancient Astronaut
Member since May 2015
37154 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 5:50 pm to
Really???
Posted by Tomherman
Member since Sep 2016
2053 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 5:54 pm to
You are definitely putting in the work to being the worst poster.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 5:57 pm to
For every other bet, the experts set the odds so the payout isn’t “worth” the bet. For a coin toss bet that pays +100 (true 2/1 odds) you are getting fair odds.

So you either lose and you’re fine with it because you know the odds were fair, or you double your money. One outcome is neutral (losing is fine if you know the odds are fair), one outcome is great (doubling your money).
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
107562 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:02 pm to
Just like roulette!
Posted by GeauxTigers123
Member since Feb 2007
3113 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:05 pm to
Doesn’t one side of the coin actually weigh more?
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:11 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t one side of the coin actually weigh more?


Usually yes but the NFL has a specially made coin just for the Super Bowl with perfect symmetry.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:22 pm to
For the Super Bowl coin toss, it’s been “heads” 28 times and “tails” 30 times.

This could suggest that tails is a slightly more likely result. Perhaps due to the refs placing the coin heads side up before the flick.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:34 pm to
For the 7 prior Super Bowls in the Superdome, it has been tails 4 times and heads 3 times, again suggesting tails may be a slight favorite.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 6:43 pm to
The head referee will be Ron Torbert. He has been the head referee of one Super Bowl before (56), and in that one the coin landed heads.

This may be the most compelling piece of data.
Posted by TheArrogantCorndog
Highland Rd
Member since Sep 2009
15751 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 7:07 pm to
Eagles, 27-24
Posted by DeathValley85
Member since May 2011
18936 posts
Posted on 2/8/25 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

If you lose, you know it wasn’t a bad bet. If you win, you double your money.


You’ve got it wrong. Sharp betters are looking for positive EV, not fair odds. There’s no edge in a true 50/50, therefore not a good bet.
Posted by StansberryRules
Member since Aug 2024
4430 posts
Posted on 2/9/25 at 2:15 am to
You're aware that sports books charge fees right?
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
37003 posts
Posted on 2/9/25 at 2:30 am to
quote:

Just like roulette!


The coin has a green zero??
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29612 posts
Posted on 2/9/25 at 8:08 am to
quote:

You're aware that sports books charge fees right?


Draft Kings has the bet at +100. No “fees.”
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