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Sports betting question
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:03 pm
I just started playing around with it when the online books became legal, so I don’t have much experience. I placed a couple of tiny bets on LSU to win the SEC back in May, one at +8000 and one a few weeks later at +10000. After the Alabama game, they offered a cash out option of about 20% of the winning amount. My plan was to hope that we beat Arkansas, clinched the west, and then maybe cash one out at a larger percentage. Today, the cash out amount is actually less than it was before clinching. Is that normal, or should I expect it to go up as we get closer to the SECCG?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:05 pm to High C
UGA also clinched the opponent is known.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:13 pm to TigerintheNO
So, basically, the books are that confident that LSU won’t beat Georgia?
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:22 pm to High C
Not un less Georgia quits playing football
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:30 pm to High C
Yeah it probably went down due to the UGA line being set at -15 or whatever
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:41 pm to High C
You can probably make more betting the UGA moneyline as a hedge than cashing out. The books calculate the cash out value to give them an edge over that.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:44 pm to High C
quote:
Today, the cash out amount is actually less than it was before clinching
How LSU looked this weekend didn't help either
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:01 pm to High C
Depends on how much you put down on each bet.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:04 pm to High C
Maybe Cash out and go ML LSU is an option.
I'd go big or go home LSU. It really depends on how much money we're talking about.
I'd go big or go home LSU. It really depends on how much money we're talking about.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:10 pm to lsufb1912
quote:
Yeah it probably went down due to the UGA line being set at -15 or whatever
-15pts, ML might be -700. If i cash out for $2000, I'm not risking 1400 to gain $200 by better on Georgia. By doing that, Georgia wins, you're up total $2200. LSU wins, you're only up total $600.
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:14 pm to High C
Never cash out, there’s a reason they give you that shitty option
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:16 pm to lsu xman
He would make more money just keeping his bet alive
Let’s say the line is UGA -500 LSU +400, UGA will be a bigger favorite probably but that makes the math easy
He’s got 10 dollars at 100 to 1
Winning the bet pays $1,010
Pure hedge, he bets $841.67, profit is a guaranteed $168.33
Cash out values he’s offered is usually ~90% of pure hedge, let’s say $152
If he cashes out and puts that $152 at +400, he’s looking at making $608
His two best choices are let it ride or put on a hedge. He can do a partial hedge too.
Partial hedge $500 on UGA
If UGA wins he makes a $90 profit, if LSU wins he makes a $510 profit
I’ve made an art form out of hedging bets.
Let’s say the line is UGA -500 LSU +400, UGA will be a bigger favorite probably but that makes the math easy
He’s got 10 dollars at 100 to 1
Winning the bet pays $1,010
Pure hedge, he bets $841.67, profit is a guaranteed $168.33
Cash out values he’s offered is usually ~90% of pure hedge, let’s say $152
If he cashes out and puts that $152 at +400, he’s looking at making $608
His two best choices are let it ride or put on a hedge. He can do a partial hedge too.
Partial hedge $500 on UGA
If UGA wins he makes a $90 profit, if LSU wins he makes a $510 profit
I’ve made an art form out of hedging bets.
This post was edited on 11/14/22 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:35 pm to High C
quote:
I placed a couple of tiny bets
Need to know exactly what you call "tiny" to give further opinion.
"tiny" less than 100.00= let it ride
Posted on 11/15/22 at 12:26 am to TheWalrus
UGA -800 LSU +600 on my book right now.
Posted on 11/15/22 at 6:47 am to UnoMe
quote:
tiny" less than 100.00= let it ride
Much less, I’m letting it ride.
Posted on 11/15/22 at 6:48 am to High C
quote:
Is that normal, or should I expect it to go up as we get closer to the SECCG?
Well LSU is a double digit underdog to win the SEC so you're getting the odds from what UGA's ML would offer you at a cash out price.
Ideally, hope that LSU goes up early in the game and see if you have a cashout offer. Take that before UGA takes the lead and wins.
This post was edited on 11/15/22 at 6:50 am
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