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Sports betting question

Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:03 pm
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
53807 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:03 pm
I just started playing around with it when the online books became legal, so I don’t have much experience. I placed a couple of tiny bets on LSU to win the SEC back in May, one at +8000 and one a few weeks later at +10000. After the Alabama game, they offered a cash out option of about 20% of the winning amount. My plan was to hope that we beat Arkansas, clinched the west, and then maybe cash one out at a larger percentage. Today, the cash out amount is actually less than it was before clinching. Is that normal, or should I expect it to go up as we get closer to the SECCG?
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41195 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:05 pm to
UGA also clinched the opponent is known.
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
53807 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:13 pm to
So, basically, the books are that confident that LSU won’t beat Georgia?
Posted by gizmoflak
Member since May 2007
11660 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:21 pm to
You could cash out, let it ride, or hedge.

Here's a crude little calculator you can use for hedging:
LINK
Posted by WhiteMandingo
Member since Jan 2016
5594 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:22 pm to
Not un less Georgia quits playing football
Posted by lsufb1912
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2021
5965 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:30 pm to
Yeah it probably went down due to the UGA line being set at -15 or whatever
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40536 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:41 pm to
You can probably make more betting the UGA moneyline as a hedge than cashing out. The books calculate the cash out value to give them an edge over that.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6815 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

Today, the cash out amount is actually less than it was before clinching

How LSU looked this weekend didn't help either
Posted by DirtyE
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2008
2506 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 8:01 pm to
Depends on how much you put down on each bet.
Posted by lsu xman
Member since Oct 2006
15558 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:04 pm to
Maybe Cash out and go ML LSU is an option.

I'd go big or go home LSU. It really depends on how much money we're talking about.
Posted by lsu xman
Member since Oct 2006
15558 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Yeah it probably went down due to the UGA line being set at -15 or whatever


-15pts, ML might be -700. If i cash out for $2000, I'm not risking 1400 to gain $200 by better on Georgia. By doing that, Georgia wins, you're up total $2200. LSU wins, you're only up total $600.

Posted by blzr
Keeneland
Member since Mar 2011
30099 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:14 pm to
Never cash out, there’s a reason they give you that shitty option
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40536 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 9:16 pm to
He would make more money just keeping his bet alive

Let’s say the line is UGA -500 LSU +400, UGA will be a bigger favorite probably but that makes the math easy

He’s got 10 dollars at 100 to 1

Winning the bet pays $1,010

Pure hedge, he bets $841.67, profit is a guaranteed $168.33

Cash out values he’s offered is usually ~90% of pure hedge, let’s say $152

If he cashes out and puts that $152 at +400, he’s looking at making $608

His two best choices are let it ride or put on a hedge. He can do a partial hedge too.

Partial hedge $500 on UGA

If UGA wins he makes a $90 profit, if LSU wins he makes a $510 profit

I’ve made an art form out of hedging bets.
This post was edited on 11/14/22 at 9:21 pm
Posted by UnoMe
Here
Member since Dec 2007
5569 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

I placed a couple of tiny bets


Need to know exactly what you call "tiny" to give further opinion.

"tiny" less than 100.00= let it ride
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40949 posts
Posted on 11/15/22 at 12:26 am to
UGA -800 LSU +600 on my book right now.
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
53807 posts
Posted on 11/15/22 at 6:47 am to
quote:

tiny" less than 100.00= let it ride


Much less, I’m letting it ride.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28405 posts
Posted on 11/15/22 at 6:48 am to
quote:

Is that normal, or should I expect it to go up as we get closer to the SECCG?

Well LSU is a double digit underdog to win the SEC so you're getting the odds from what UGA's ML would offer you at a cash out price.

Ideally, hope that LSU goes up early in the game and see if you have a cashout offer. Take that before UGA takes the lead and wins.
This post was edited on 11/15/22 at 6:50 am
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