- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Sports Betting AI Algorithm Prediction
Posted on 11/12/25 at 2:03 pm to LSUTIGERS74
Posted on 11/12/25 at 2:03 pm to LSUTIGERS74
Show some cashed out tickets.
What probablitiy% and edge combo makes for a A tier
What probablitiy% and edge combo makes for a A tier
0
Posted on 11/12/25 at 2:22 pm to ks_nola
quote:
ks_nola
Great questions! Here's how our tier system works:
TIER CRITERIA
Tier A (71.6% win rate in 2025):
• Win Probability = 60%
• Edge = 25 percentage points
• Spread = 14 points
Example: Alabama -6.5 vs Oklahoma
• Probability: 60.0%
• Edge: 26.3pp (our model says 60%, market implies 33.8%)
• Spread: 6.5
• Result: Tier A
Tier Elite (74.7% historical win rate):
• Home picks only, =57% prob, =15pp edge, =10 spread
Tier C (61.8% win rate): Betting the fade here not the pick shown
• =50% probability, =25 spread, doesn't meet A/Elite standards
Tier D: Not recommended (shown for transparency only)
LINE SOURCE & DISCREPANCIES
We pull lines from CFBD API (Consensus or DraftKings) at opening (Tuesday) - they are supposed to update every morning and night but you found a bug and the new files didn't load the tables with new data (working on this fix now)
Why Alabama shows -6.5 on our site but -7.5 on FanDuel:
• Our line: -6.5 (opening line, Tuesday)
• FanDuel: -7.5 (current line, Saturday)
• Difference: Line moved 1 point due to betting action
This is normal! Lines move throughout the week. Always use your sportsbook's current line when placing bets.
Line movement doesn't invalidate the pick - our edge calculation is what matters. A Tier A pick with a 1-point line move is still a strong play.
Hope this helps! Let me know if you have other questions.
This post was edited on 11/12/25 at 2:26 pm
Posted on 11/12/25 at 2:24 pm to High C
quote:
High C
Yes the algo only likes favorites and is extremely high probability (~85%) on 4 years of data for home favorites. In the 4 years of backtesting it has only ever picked a dog once (went 1-0), I use the tier C for fades as that is where the dogs are ~61.7% win rate betting against the pick.
Posted on 11/12/25 at 3:23 pm to LSUTIGERS74
Cool stuff man. Impressive looking site. Thanks for the trial. I put money on all 3 of the elite plays.
Posted on 11/12/25 at 4:36 pm to High C
Sketchy that no dogs are listed. This is def a square site
This post was edited on 11/12/25 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 11/12/25 at 5:05 pm to CWilken21
There’s an A game tonight for anyone riding
Posted on 11/12/25 at 6:14 pm to LSUTIGERS74
Bama moved to -5.5 not -7.5 but either way seems a one point line move would have some effect on probability and or edge unless you are suggesting people bet moneyline.
Posted on 11/12/25 at 6:45 pm to CWilken21
quote:
ketchy that no dogs are listed. This is def a square site
Yes this is one area where the algo refuses to pick dogs, I have run it mutliple times in various versions to get dog picks and it throws the probability all over the place and win rate goes to less than breakeven. The only way to bet dogs is to fade the Tier C picks which when bet as whole on week by week basis has a +60% win rate. I spoke to an old buddy who ran an algo back at MIT in the early 2000's and he was never able to get there predictions to find dogs either (as an FYI they turned 500 into 500k back before 2005 online gambling ban). The good news is even with no dogs, I will still take ~68% win rate any day
Posted on 11/12/25 at 6:51 pm to LSUTIGERS74
Whatever money you clowns will blow gambling should have just been invested in an index fund.
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News