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Message
re: Rumor: Houston Rockets seeing if there is a trade market for Ty Lawson
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:32 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:32 pm to buckeye_vol
8 different starting lineups in 18 games.
OK let's go back and look at this
Whether or not the SOS is higher or lower doesn't impact the results
Yes it does matter. You're just plain wrong.
For the purposes of discussion here, that less than 1% isn't even worth bringing up. It's like me saying Deandre is a 50% shooter and him being a 49.2% shooter and you making an issue of me saying hes at 50. It just doesn't make any sense to me....Anyways have a good night. 
OK let's go back and look at this
Whether or not the SOS is higher or lower doesn't impact the results
Yes it does matter. You're just plain wrong.
quote:So over 100 games, the higher or lower SOS impacts the results less than once. That's not even once a season. Now if you really want to argue that less than 1% of the time to prove a point have it.
Probability GSW would 96.08% against a .300 team and 95.12% against a .350.
For the purposes of discussion here, that less than 1% isn't even worth bringing up. It's like me saying Deandre is a 50% shooter and him being a 49.2% shooter and you making an issue of me saying hes at 50. It just doesn't make any sense to me....Anyways have a good night. This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 9:33 pm
1
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:37 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
You have the patience of a saint
I gave up trying to reason with him long ago
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:54 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
buckeye_vol
Doing great work.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:57 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:You're misunderstanding or misrepresenting. The minimal 1% difference is because the win expectancy is historically HIGH for GSW. So the closer it gets to 1 or 0, the smaller the difference.
So over 100 games, the higher or lower SOS impacts the results less than once. That's not even once a season
However, for a team like Houston, it will have a much bigger impact. Using Houston's current record of .388, they have a has a 54.07% chance to beat a .350 team and 59.67% chance to beat a .300 team. That is a difference of 5.6%. That would account for a 5 win difference across 82 games.
Basically, unless a team is an extreme outlier, either historically great or historically poor, the SOS difference will have a noticeable impact on the win probability.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:07 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:
You have the patience of a saint
I wish my real-world patience was consistent with my message-board patience. quote:Probably the wiser decision.
I gave up trying to reason with him long ago
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:08 pm to buckeye_vol
(no message)
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:09 pm to buckeye_vol
But what about when they MESH, b_v?!
Did you account for the MESHING??!?!
Did you account for the MESHING??!?!
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:13 pm to TbirdSpur2010
quote:After accounting for the meshing variable, I've determined that the win probability for Houston is 100% against all-teams, including a mythical team that combines the best players and coaches from Spurs, Thunder, Cavs, and Warriors.
But what about when they MESH, b_v?!
Did you account for the MESHING??!?
Of course, the "meshing" variable is based on boom's assumptions, so it could be overstated a tad.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:13 pm to buckeye_vol
One more .. Using the under 20 game sample that you are using to project HOU give me the odds that SAS and CLE beat GSW in a 7 game series.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:20 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
After accounting for the meshing variable, I've determined that the win probability for Houston is 100% against all-teams, including a mythical team that combines the best players and coaches from Spurs, Thunder, Cavs, and Warriors.
Now you're talkin' Boom-talk
quote:
Of course, the "meshing" variable is based on boom's assumptions, so it could be overstated a tad.
It is not possible to overstate a Boom assumption when it comes to Rocket positives
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:22 pm to buckeye_vol
to see how many assumptions you pull out of thin air when running the numbers for this GSW V CLE and SAS series. Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:26 pm to Boomshockalocka
Kinda hard to play either team in a playoff series if you're sitting at home 
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:28 pm to theducks
Can't read eh bro?
GSW SAS CLE are the teams mentioned. Safe to say those will be in the playoffs.
GSW SAS CLE are the teams mentioned. Safe to say those will be in the playoffs.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:46 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:OK. So using the Pythagorean win expectations then derive paired Log5/ELO/Rasch probability expectation we would expect GSW to beat SAS 68.4% of the time and CLE 78.13%.
One more .. Using the under 20 game sample that you are using to project HOU give me the odds that SAS and CLE beat GSW in a 7 game series.
Therefore, in a best of 7 series using the binomial theorem and determining all possibility, we get the following equation for a 7 game series:
P(GSW) = p(GSW)^4(1 + 4*(1-p(GSW) + 10*(1-p(GSW))^2 + 20*(1-p(GSW)^3).
So for a 7 game series GSW has a series win probability of 85.2% against SAS and 95.5% against CLE.
Mind you the calculations were done hastily, but they should be pretty accurate.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 10:49 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:52 pm to buckeye_vol
Yea that's about right. Ok I'll accept the HOU expectations if you and the Spurs guy can accept these.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:53 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:I'm not making any assumptions besides what is present in the available data. And the calculations I use are based on validated statistical models. For example, the equation to calculate win probability are used for Chess ratings (ELO) and is the predominate model used in psychological and educational test development (Rasch model or the one-parameter item response model).
to see how many assumptions you pull out of thin air when running the numbers for this GSW V CLE and SAS series
Posted on 12/1/15 at 10:54 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:I'm not pretending they are perfect by any means (e.g., Home and Away not considered), but at this point in time, GSW looks like a runaway favorite, CLE and SAS should get deep into the playoffs but are clearly outmatched vs. SAS AND Houston is not on track to make the playoffs.
Ok I'll accept the HOU expectations if you and the Spurs guy can accept these.
Things can and will change, but any major predictions counter to the available data are pure conjecture.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 12/2/15 at 6:04 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Yea that's about right. Ok I'll accept the HOU expectations if you and the Spurs guy can accept these.
The Spurs guys aren't saying it doesn't matter if they play good teams or bad teams, they are equally likely to win both ways. That's really really stupid.
Posted on 12/2/15 at 10:48 am to TheSexecutioner
I'm an unabashed Spurs homer, but I generally try to refrain from making stupid predictions about 'em. If we suck, we suck. If we're good, we're good.
I also damn sure don't double down on my predictions if/when they go awry. #NoBoom
I also damn sure don't double down on my predictions if/when they go awry. #NoBoom
Posted on 12/2/15 at 10:51 am to TheSexecutioner
quote:neither did I, I said if they play a bad team(.350) v a slightly worse team(.300) that they are likely to win both times.
The Spurs guys aren't saying it doesn't matter if they play good teams or bad teams
the buckeye takes everything too literally.
Defintion of 9 time out of 10 from dictionary.com
nine times out of ten
Fig. usually; almost always.
I say 9 times out of ten meaning "usually; almost always" and he jumps in with standard deviation and advanced formulas
This post was edited on 12/2/15 at 10:56 am
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