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re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)
Posted on 9/24/15 at 8:10 am to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 9/24/15 at 8:10 am to ChemE in the OP
Week 4 Card Update (Added Duke) ~
Duke +7.5
Arkansas +7.5 (-115)
YTD 6-2 (75%)
Duke +7.5
Arkansas +7.5 (-115)
YTD 6-2 (75%)
0
Posted on 9/24/15 at 8:25 am to maclauer
add uva baw
Posted on 9/24/15 at 9:00 am to Carson123987
Waiting on a better price than -125 for +3.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 9:09 am to maclauer
Bovada dealing a +3 -115 if you have an account there.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 9:28 am to Benny The Jet
quote:
Also, would you consider West Virginia a let down candidate against Maryland (+17) playing at home before traveling to Oklahoma next week? I know Maryland has not looked great this year though.
I like Maryland a good bit. Maryland seems to get up for this game every year, I think offensively they should be able to run the ball a little and defensively get enough pressure on the QB to slow down the Mountaineers, great spot with a trip to Oklahoma on deck for West Virginia.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:33 am to bloupe2
quote:
Why you going with cincy dcrew?
Home dog
Opened at 7, so getting an extra fg after the market flooded Memphis.
You know how I feel about home dogs getting double digit points.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:34 am to dgtiger3
quote:
I like Maryland a good bit. Maryland seems to get up for this game every year, I think offensively they should be able to run the ball a little and defensively get enough pressure on the QB to slow down the Mountaineers, great spot with a trip to Oklahoma on deck for West Virginia.
My question is how will Maryland score? I think WVU has the best defense in the Big 12. Maryland didn't exactly move the ball well against Bowling Green's defense which intentionally doesn't provide a lot of resistance.
I see a 27-7 final score here
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:42 am to dcrews
quote:
quote:
Why you going with cincy dcrew?
Home dog
Opened at 7, so getting an extra fg after the market flooded Memphis.
You know how I feel about home dogs getting double digit points.
im on cincy +10... they are a dog... but not at home lol
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:44 am to dcrews
quote:
Home dog
They most certainly are not playing at home
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:45 am to oleyeller
I've got Mississippi State +3, Vandy + 24.5, and a parlay on both of them. Hope I get paid baws!
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:46 am to the_watcher
Was getting them confused with Uva
Even still double digit Thursday night dog is just as good.
Even still double digit Thursday night dog is just as good.
This post was edited on 9/24/15 at 10:48 am
Posted on 9/24/15 at 10:47 am to dcrews
updated card
Arkansas +7.5
-cincy +10
-Tn +1.5
-mich -5.5
-duke +8
-ecu +10
will be looking to add a couple more before sat
Arkansas +7.5
-cincy +10
-Tn +1.5
-mich -5.5
-duke +8
-ecu +10
will be looking to add a couple more before sat
Posted on 9/24/15 at 11:15 am to accnodefense
quote:
My question is how will Maryland score? I think WVU has the best defense in the Big 12. Maryland didn't exactly move the ball well against Bowling Green's defense which intentionally doesn't provide a lot of resistance.
I see a 27-7 final score here
Haha. Pretty convenient to point out Maryland's 27 points against a weak BGSU defense two weeks ago instead of the 35 points they put up against South Florida last week with a new starter at QB. You do realize West Virginia hasn't played an FCS team yet this season correct? They gave up 17 to Liberty last week.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 11:28 am to dgtiger3
quote:
They gave up 17 to Liberty last week.
Holy. shite.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 11:43 am to zelman
Cinci down to 7.5 now
Posted on 9/24/15 at 11:50 am to dgtiger3
quote:
You do realize West Virginia hasn't played an FCS team yet this season correct
They shut out Georgia Southern who won the Sun Belt last year
Posted on 9/24/15 at 12:29 pm to accnodefense
quote:
They shut out Georgia Southern who won the Sun Belt last year
You got me there, espn mobile wouldn't let me click their team page so I assumed they were not fully FBS status yet.. I stand corrected.
I'm sorry if I came across as harsh, I realize we are all on the same team here, but sometimes you remind me of a younger version of myself.
I used to spend 15-20 hours a week on models tweaking and slicing them 100 times a week to get optimum results, and I realize the grind that can be at times. I also realize that sometimes you can get lost in those numbers which can cause you to make bold predictions based off of them. I think it's way more likely for Maryland to score 20+ than it is for them to score less than 10, but we're all here to give our take and varying opinions.
Your "work" is appreciated by many here including me, just wanted to make that clear. A lot of the reason this thread has stayed pretty strong for many years is the 'civil' debates from many knowledgeable and seasoned posters.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 1:27 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
I'm sorry if I came across as harsh, I realize we are all on the same team here, but sometimes you remind me of a younger version of myself.
I haven't noticed any hostility or harshness
I think my model is higher on West Virginia than it should be, because WVU only has 1 game under its belt against FBS teams, and that game is making up 28% of West Virginia's numbers. And that one game was against a 44-0 win over a team that is #44 in my model, which will make the WVU win even bigger for their output.
Maryland is suffering because their two games, was a 21 point home loss to Bowling Green, a team in the 80s or 90s in my model, and a home win over South Florida, a team in the 100s. Bowling Green is better than what my model says they are.
I think West Virginia's defense can get it done, but their offense worries me. Don't want them to pull a Missouri from last week.
College football is a tough sport to model because of sample size. In baseball you can model after a week because each team has 6 games under their belt. In college basketball you can model at the end of November because each team usually has 7 games in by that point.
Football is hard that the required sample size of 6-7 games is not until halfway through the season, so a model isn't truly functional until then, so it sucks that its usability is only a 6-7 week window.
You can try to make preseason ratings for a stopgap until 6 games are played, but its too hit or miss, as it can be seen for my approach the last 2 weeks.
My model has still had its moments this year as I posted last night, but I ignored it this week for the most and did my capping without it.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 3:20 pm to accnodefense
I went ahead and added:
Central Florida +15
Syracuse +25
Also added App St. ODU Over 56.5 (tailing ACC)
Who's everyone on for tonight's game? I had a free bet, so I just parlayed Cincy and the over.
Central Florida +15
Syracuse +25
Also added App St. ODU Over 56.5 (tailing ACC)
Who's everyone on for tonight's game? I had a free bet, so I just parlayed Cincy and the over.
This post was edited on 9/24/15 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 9/24/15 at 4:05 pm to LSUJuice
app state/ODU total is 56 on mybookie.ag
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