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re: Official Week 9 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/28/15 at 6:58 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 10/28/15 at 6:58 pm to ChemE in the OP
Glimpse into my standard deviation trends
In Week 1, when my model agreed across all 3 methods on a side, 15-4 ATS with a standard deviation of 3.04 or lower
Not saying 3.04 is the magic number, but its why I added Standard Deviation to my sheets, because I found a correlation between a low standard deviation and success, not just in Week 1 but overall through the first 8 weeks.
If my model agrees on a side across all 3 methods, and the standard deviation is low, its a high confidence play
In Week 1, when my model agreed across all 3 methods on a side, 15-4 ATS with a standard deviation of 3.04 or lower
Not saying 3.04 is the magic number, but its why I added Standard Deviation to my sheets, because I found a correlation between a low standard deviation and success, not just in Week 1 but overall through the first 8 weeks.
If my model agrees on a side across all 3 methods, and the standard deviation is low, its a high confidence play
2
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:02 pm to accnodefense
I'll likely end up on Duke with the announcement that Kaaya will be out; that line is short with him not playing.
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:18 pm to Louie T
Probably on the public side for both, but I took Florida -2 and Aunurn +7. My buddy is a logical UGA fan and has bashed them so much, I took his word. May jump on UGA if it gets to +3.5 to try and middle. This type of rivalry game is always crazy.
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:23 pm to LSUShock
My plays so far this week is
Notre Dame -10.5
Georgia +3
Texas Tech +3
Leaning
Tulane +32
Cal +6
Virginia +6
Notre Dame -10.5
Georgia +3
Texas Tech +3
Leaning
Tulane +32
Cal +6
Virginia +6
Posted on 10/29/15 at 5:24 am to LSU1018
Added:
Air Force -7
Texas Tech +3. Better QB, points, HFA.
Air Force -7
Texas Tech +3. Better QB, points, HFA.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:17 am to Zipfer2022
25-25-3 on the season, but +7u due to betting up on the right games.
So far this week, looking at Marshall (RLM/trap/whatever- Charlotte is auto-fade), Memphis, and Notre Dame.
So far this week, looking at Marshall (RLM/trap/whatever- Charlotte is auto-fade), Memphis, and Notre Dame.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:18 am to Zipfer2022
Plays for tonight:
Texas St., Miami, EMich, WVU
Texas St., Miami, EMich, WVU
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:21 am to accnodefense
ACC, the standard deviation I'm looking at is the "ATS Standard Deviation Value" on your sheets. I realize like you said 3.04 may not be your magic number, but am I correct to be more confident when the "ATS Standard Deviation Value" is below 3.04?
Just making sure I'm looking at the same deviation value as you, or does it matter?
Just making sure I'm looking at the same deviation value as you, or does it matter?
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:29 am to TheOcean
Pitt & EMU tonight. Leaned the ASU under but will pass on totals this week.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:34 am to maclauer
Not sure what to think about the Pitt game. I'm leaning Pitt, but not sure if I'll touch the game. Bets are evenly split, more $ on UNC to drive the line up. But it's a huge home night game for Pitt in a primetime slot getting 3 points.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:38 am to TheOcean
EMU and the TCU over are my two plays tonight. I may tease EMU and Georgia Southern down but we will see how I feel later on.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 8:54 am to TheOcean
quote:
Not sure what to think about the Pitt game. I'm leaning Pitt, but not sure if I'll touch the game. Bets are evenly split, more $ on UNC to drive the line up. But it's a huge home night game for Pitt in a primetime slot getting 3 points.
I like the matchup of Pitt's rushing attack vs UNC's porous run D. Marquise Williams can be turnover-prone and Pitt's underrated secondary would be happy to oblige.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 9:14 am to maclauer
Posted on 10/29/15 at 10:09 am to TheOcean
Man oh man, EMU is bad. GL to the followers. I think ASU will be my only play tonight.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 10:17 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
No reason to rush, public will keep buying at -6.
You think they will get all the way up to 7 by Saturday?
And Crews, what made you pull the trigger on Auburn? I really want to.
Also thinking about adding Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Lots of rain in this area on Saturday. A&M QB situation is a mess, early start in that one, and wet field could be a nice equalizer. Only thing that gives me pause is A&M stock is down after looking horrible last week.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 10:25 am to Louie T
2015: 21-18-1 +2.82u
Already placed:
1) Oklahoma -39 -110 1u
2) Louisville -9.5 -115 1u
3) Oklahoma St -1 -110 1u
4) FIU -3 -110 1u
Adding:
5) Clemson wins NC +1200 1u
Bovada dishing an out of line # on Clemson here.
Already placed:
1) Oklahoma -39 -110 1u
2) Louisville -9.5 -115 1u
3) Oklahoma St -1 -110 1u
4) FIU -3 -110 1u
Adding:
5) Clemson wins NC +1200 1u
Bovada dishing an out of line # on Clemson here.
This post was edited on 10/29/15 at 10:27 am
Posted on 10/29/15 at 10:34 am to noles25
quote:
ACC, the standard deviation I'm looking at is the "ATS Standard Deviation Value" on your sheets. I realize like you said 3.04 may not be your magic number, but am I correct to be more confident when the "ATS Standard Deviation Value" is below 3.04?
Just making sure I'm looking at the same deviation value as you, or does it matter?
The problem is that in Week 1 the range of ratings is much lower than the Range in Week 8 onward. Therefore the mean standard deviation will be higher every week.
The mean standard deviation in Week 1 was 2.81. The mean standard deviation in Week 8 is 5.57.
That's why there is no magic number, the range gets higher which raises the mean standard deviation.
I wouldn't make this the key criteria for choosing a side, but just as a bonus. If I had to give a magic number it would be anything under 5.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 10:35 am to Zipfer2022
Gonna be on Ga Southern first half and full game tonight. Probably UNC but not sure yet.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 11:05 am to accnodefense
Thank you sir, I'm not putting any units on a team each week. I'm in a Office Pool with a large amount of people where we select ATS each week for top 25 matchups. Your sheets have helped me achieve 8th place out of 39 places through 7 weeks thus far. Only 7 wrong ATS picks separate myself and the leader.
If I end up doing well I will have to get your PayPal info and share the wealth with you.
If I end up doing well I will have to get your PayPal info and share the wealth with you.
Posted on 10/29/15 at 1:02 pm to Louie T
quote:
Clemson wins NC +1200 1u
Bovada dishing an out of line # on Clemson here
How so? 12/1 is what they are everywhere, and seems right on.
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