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1
Posted on 10/26/15 at 1:41 pm to dcrews
Dude, you have no idea what was in the thread. They deleted it
Posted on 10/26/15 at 2:01 pm to oleyeller
quote:
holy shite you are alive? we had a 2 page RIP tribute for u and the dam admins deleted it! Shows how much they care about your well being
I was in Vegas since Thursday. My flight landed about midnight last night. Didn't have many opportunities to charge my phone during the day so I didn't spend much time checking the TD threads.
Won a few bets at the sports books though
Wish I coulda seen the tribute thread.
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 10/26/15 at 2:02 pm to dcrews
Posted on 10/26/15 at 6:35 pm to accnodefense
I play a weekly card and went 3-1 using your system. Illinois +7 vs Wisconsin was the only loss. Unfortunately, I need to go undefeated to win $,,,
Posted on 10/26/15 at 6:53 pm to Cincinnati Bowtie
quote:
I play a weekly card and went 3-1 using your system. Illinois +7 vs Wisconsin was the only loss. Unfortunately, I need to go undefeated to win $,,,
Just play them all separate.
Illinois was a tough one. They went up 13-10 in the 3rd quarter and melted down after that
Posted on 10/26/15 at 6:56 pm to dcrews
You're alive!
This thread was edited heavily
This thread was edited heavily
Posted on 10/26/15 at 6:59 pm to oleyeller
quote:
there are no gifts in vegas
Bama vs Wisky. Bama vs UGA. Bama vs Texas AtM were all gifts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 7:03 pm to accnodefense
I did well with your simulations Sunday well. When will you be putting them out this week? Suggestions on early lines too, do you have any favorites?
Posted on 10/26/15 at 7:04 pm to dcrews
Is this the ghost of dcrews posting?
Posted on 10/26/15 at 7:23 pm to TheOcean
Pending 10/29/15 7:30pm College Football 111 West Virginia +14 -110* vs TCU
Pending 10/31/15 3:30pm College Football 125 Marshall -20 -110* vs Charlotte
Pending 10/31/15 3:30pm College Football 138 Iowa -17 -110* vs Maryland
Pending 10/31/15 8:00pm College Football 156 Temple +10 -110* vs Notre Dame
Pending 10/31/15 12:00pm College Football 170 Texas A&M -15½ -110* vs South Carolina
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 174 Utah -23½ -110* vs Oregon State
Pending 10/31/15 12:00pm College Football 181 Western Kentucky -23½ -110* vs Old Dominion
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 198 Memphis -30 -110* vs Tulane
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 199 Michigan -13½ -110* vs Minnesota U
Pending 10/31/15 3:30pm College Football 125 Marshall -20 -110* vs Charlotte
Pending 10/31/15 3:30pm College Football 138 Iowa -17 -110* vs Maryland
Pending 10/31/15 8:00pm College Football 156 Temple +10 -110* vs Notre Dame
Pending 10/31/15 12:00pm College Football 170 Texas A&M -15½ -110* vs South Carolina
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 174 Utah -23½ -110* vs Oregon State
Pending 10/31/15 12:00pm College Football 181 Western Kentucky -23½ -110* vs Old Dominion
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 198 Memphis -30 -110* vs Tulane
Pending 10/31/15 7:00pm College Football 199 Michigan -13½ -110* vs Minnesota U
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:37 pm to jlu03
Here are the Week 9 Sheets: LINK
Upgraded them to Sheets 2.0.
Changes:
1. Dropped The Delta/Combined prediction methods, as I never used them
2. In their place I added the averages of the 3 methods and the standard deviation of the 3 prediction methods. After research I found a correlation between a low standard deviation and my model being correct on the prediction. This obviously makes sense. If all 3 methods are close to each other in predictions, ideally the more likely the outcome will be close to the prediction.
So that's a new twist to my sheets. If the standard deviation is low, the more seriously I would take the my model's prediction for that game.
Here are additional plays I added tonight:
Upgraded them to Sheets 2.0.
Changes:
1. Dropped The Delta/Combined prediction methods, as I never used them
2. In their place I added the averages of the 3 methods and the standard deviation of the 3 prediction methods. After research I found a correlation between a low standard deviation and my model being correct on the prediction. This obviously makes sense. If all 3 methods are close to each other in predictions, ideally the more likely the outcome will be close to the prediction.
So that's a new twist to my sheets. If the standard deviation is low, the more seriously I would take the my model's prediction for that game.
Here are additional plays I added tonight:
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:40 pm to accnodefense
Nice Acc. Thanks 
Posted on 10/27/15 at 12:06 am to SDVTiger
Added Pitt +3 for Thursday night
Posted on 10/27/15 at 9:25 am to blades8088
I've been out of town the last two weeks, so I haven't watched any games. Probably will ease back into things this week, and will probably tail a couple of you geniuses too. Thoughts:
Ole Miss -7.5 a trap? I thought this would be at 10-11. But I guess early start, road game...
I think A&M bounces back vs. SC, but 16.5 seems like too many points.
Cal +6 at home vs. team that just had a huge home upset. Only question is... is USC just that much better now without Sark?
Tell me why I shouldn't take Virginia +6 at home?
I've had a really bad handle on Georgia this year. Tell me why some of you are all over them this week.
So I guess it's no secret Houston is good this year. But should they be laying 12 to Vanderbilt?
Ole Miss -7.5 a trap? I thought this would be at 10-11. But I guess early start, road game...
I think A&M bounces back vs. SC, but 16.5 seems like too many points.
Cal +6 at home vs. team that just had a huge home upset. Only question is... is USC just that much better now without Sark?
Tell me why I shouldn't take Virginia +6 at home?
I've had a really bad handle on Georgia this year. Tell me why some of you are all over them this week.
So I guess it's no secret Houston is good this year. But should they be laying 12 to Vanderbilt?
Posted on 10/27/15 at 9:31 am to accnodefense
thanks, ACC.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 10:38 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Ole Miss -7.5 a trap? I thought this would be at 10-11. But I guess early start, road game...
Yes
quote:
think A&M bounces back vs. SC, but 16.5 seems like too many points.
I agree, my model says A&M covers, but I held off just because my "situational awareness" vetoed the play. In a vacuum A&M looks good, but locker room issues are causing me to stay away.
quote:
Cal +6 at home vs. team that just had a huge home upset. Only question is... is USC just that much better now without Sark?
I don't think Cal is that good. Their defense is terrible. What did Cal do this year that has everyone all over their nuts? Beat Texas on a missed extra point? I agree that 6 are too many points but the variance in this game is so high I would stay away
quote:
Tell me why I shouldn't take Virginia +6 at home?
Special teams and turnovers. Virginia is among the worst in the nation in those 2 categories
quote:
I've had a really bad handle on Georgia this year. Tell me why some of you are all over them this week.
Simply because they are getting points. Game should be a pickem
quote:
So I guess it's no secret Houston is good this year. But should they be laying 12 to Vanderbilt?
No. Vanderbilt was the play at 14. 12 is stay away territory. Under is still a good bet here.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 11:20 am to LSUJuice
RLM on Arizona State Thursday night and on Utah State Friday night.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 11:23 am to FulshearTiger
RLM on Houston on Saturday, too, if I'm not mistaken.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 11:38 am to FulshearTiger
quote:??
RLM on Arizona State Thursday night and on Utah State Friday night.
ASU is receiving the overwhelming majority of bets, and the line has increased accordingly.
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