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Message
re: Official Week 8 NFL Bet Thread
Posted on 10/22/14 at 9:22 pm to RandySavage
Posted on 10/22/14 at 9:22 pm to RandySavage
NFL STRAIGHT BET
[272] PIT STEELERS +3-115
NFL Card is final: Chargers +7.5, Jags +6, Steelers +3 and Saints ML
[272] PIT STEELERS +3-115
NFL Card is final: Chargers +7.5, Jags +6, Steelers +3 and Saints ML
1
Posted on 10/23/14 at 1:07 am to ChemE in the OP
SD Denver over 53
Posted on 10/23/14 at 1:24 am to fratinthehat
quote:
SD Denver over 53
I'd tread carefully there, I know the primetime games have been over fests, but last year I believe both games between these teams went under. San Diego had a keep away philosophy in both and was pretty successful with it.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:01 am to TJG210
I think SD is the right side, but they have 3 CBs injured for this game.
Peyton Manning has also been a covering machine with point spreads a TD or more. He takes spreads like this and wipes his arse with it.
I would tread lightly if I wanted to back SD in this spot. I can't take the under either due to SDs injuries.
Peyton Manning has also been a covering machine with point spreads a TD or more. He takes spreads like this and wipes his arse with it.
I would tread lightly if I wanted to back SD in this spot. I can't take the under either due to SDs injuries.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:31 am to Billy Mays
Standard bet for me... San Diego has shown the right tactics to play Denver well in recent history. I think their formula is one of the better ones against a Peyton-led team. Plus, Denver was on such a high Sunday night while the Chargers have to be focused after they let the Chiefs steal one on their home field.
Basically, the spot seems right to me for a standard play with over a TD spread.
Basically, the spot seems right to me for a standard play with over a TD spread.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:39 am to ChemE in the OP
Yeah typically this is a standard sharp spot. It's almost an auto take (similar to Jets/Pats a few weeks ago) - divisional foe, good SD QB that has played well in DEn, public heavy on DEN, getting more than a TD, possible DEN letdown after the 49ers blowout, SD more desperate coming off a loss...
Peyton's ATS record laying more than a TD and SD's depleted secondary scares me tho.
Peyton's ATS record laying more than a TD and SD's depleted secondary scares me tho.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 1:25 pm to Billy Mays
I ended up taking Denver -8.5, I just can't see how San Diego will be able to stop Denver with their secondary so banged up.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 3:13 pm to LSU1018
My book is now showing -9.5 and 51.
This is free money for SD and the over, IMO.
This is free money for SD and the over, IMO.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 3:26 pm to 4LSU2
I like chargers as well
Posted on 10/23/14 at 3:27 pm to ChemE in the OP
I'm trying something new. Taking the top 3 or 4 confidence plays off Accuscore and using them in a 3 or 4-team teaser*
* - will try to find the top ranked that fit into Wang theory (loosely defined in this instance to cross 3 or more key numbers) - for example Kansas City -7.5 wouldn't qualify as a Wang in a 10-point tease but would in a 12-point tease)
Here's this week's top plays and below is my 12-point, 4-team NY teaser
San Diego +9 (59.4%)
Atlanta +3.5 (58.9%)
Miami -6 (60.2%)
Kansas City -7.5 (58.8%)
* - will try to find the top ranked that fit into Wang theory (loosely defined in this instance to cross 3 or more key numbers) - for example Kansas City -7.5 wouldn't qualify as a Wang in a 10-point tease but would in a 12-point tease)
Here's this week's top plays and below is my 12-point, 4-team NY teaser
San Diego +9 (59.4%)
Atlanta +3.5 (58.9%)
Miami -6 (60.2%)
Kansas City -7.5 (58.8%)
quote:
WagerType:4TEAM NY TEASER-TIES=LOSE
Date: Team:
Oct 23 NFL [103] SD CHARGERS +21-110 (B+12)
Oct 26 NFL [252] ATL FALCONS (N) +15½-110 (B+12)
Oct 26 NFL [258] KC CHIEFS +5-110 (B+12)
Oct 26 NFL [263] MIA DOLPHINS +6-110 (B+12)
Risking 500.00 USD To Win 417.00 USD
Ticket#: 2086136
This post was edited on 10/23/14 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 3:34 pm to SirWinston
What kind of odds do you get on a 12 point teaser?
Posted on 10/23/14 at 3:44 pm to tween the hedges
whatever 500 to win 417 is. -118 or something? plus this is a local guy - cash only and they give you 15% refund on any losses if you settle in full each week.
I'm not usually a teaser guy (nobody worth their salt truly is) but I'm fascinated with tinkering around and feel like using a Wang theory in conjunction with legitimate computer modeling (not sure if Accuscore is best site or even any good, but was gifted a membership) maybe you couldn't beat the house on a consistent basis?
I'll still go to war on lines and ML with my own knowledge and picks but for games that I don't have a feel on (or maybe I could export this modeling to NBA or NCAAF which I have less of a feel for) maybe I could hit 65% over the course of a year on these types of teases. I'll keep a running tally each week in these threads. I'll call it the WANGSTON teaser.
I'm not usually a teaser guy (nobody worth their salt truly is) but I'm fascinated with tinkering around and feel like using a Wang theory in conjunction with legitimate computer modeling (not sure if Accuscore is best site or even any good, but was gifted a membership) maybe you couldn't beat the house on a consistent basis?
I'll still go to war on lines and ML with my own knowledge and picks but for games that I don't have a feel on (or maybe I could export this modeling to NBA or NCAAF which I have less of a feel for) maybe I could hit 65% over the course of a year on these types of teases. I'll keep a running tally each week in these threads. I'll call it the WANGSTON teaser.
This post was edited on 10/23/14 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 8:56 pm to SirWinston
Won the Denver -6 1H, I'll take it
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:03 pm to fratinthehat
that overturned fumble recovery late in the first half is going to kill SD backers. I'm even worried about my teasers at this point.
Was a brutal call - easily a 10 point swing with SD losing a FG and Denver gaining a TD.
ETA: and another brutal call on SD - a bullshite personal foul on what would have been 3rd and 6.
Was a brutal call - easily a 10 point swing with SD losing a FG and Denver gaining a TD.
ETA: and another brutal call on SD - a bullshite personal foul on what would have been 3rd and 6.
This post was edited on 10/23/14 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:07 pm to SirWinston
Yea, DEN getting that home cooking. Take it and move on.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:11 pm to ChemE in the OP
gonna need SD to score here to have a shot at the over
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:51 pm to K9
this is the worst home cooking I've seen in quite some time. Cannot believe the calls that Denver is getting while SD is getting none of the exact same calls. So brutal.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:52 pm to K9
Ended up playing the live over 40 at the end of the 1st quarter
Small play on San Diego
Small play on San Diego
Posted on 10/23/14 at 9:53 pm to TJG210
quote:
Ended up playing the live over 40 at the end of the 1st quarter
Nice
Feeling more confident now about the 51 number.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 10:06 pm to K9
winner 
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