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Message
re: Official Week 8 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:09 pm to SystemsGo
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:09 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
And you have a 86% chance of winning. But in the long run making bets like that would lose you money.
Where do you get this number from? Stop treating "your model" as gospel.
And money line betting isn't more or less fiscally sound than spread betting.
2
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:13 pm to accnodefense
quote:
My model says WKU wins 39.1% of the time So the LSU money line is an awful value bet
Jesus tap-dancing Christ.
I have no money on this game, but your model reeks worse than my nuts.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:16 pm to SystemsGo
And Michigan St with the no sweat cover..
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:16 pm to JG77056
I understand Doughty's efficiency numbers and all that but that's a product of mismatches on the edges, they're just not there tonight. Not to mention their Oline is very overmatched.
And in the other side of the ball, LSU could average 4.5/5 yards a carry easily as well as having an advantage over both DBs.
And in the other side of the ball, LSU could average 4.5/5 yards a carry easily as well as having an advantage over both DBs.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:21 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
Where do you get this number from? Stop treating "your model" as gospel.
-700 = 86% chance, dumbass
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:29 pm to accnodefense
Doooooook
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:35 pm to The Boat
Adding OSU -21... Hoping they play lights out for JT.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:37 pm to rawDAWG333
Wow Missouri. Trash
Took LSU -15.5. I can't see this being a close (2TD ish) game.
Took LSU -15.5. I can't see this being a close (2TD ish) game.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:38 pm to The Boat
Also on LSU -15
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:39 pm to accnodefense
Weather looks terrible in BR, glad I gave my tickets away. Hopefully no injuries as a result.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:43 pm to ChemE in the OP
Duke money line! 
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:43 pm to ChemE in the OP
Having a solid day so far
14-8. Added A&M +7, Utah +7, and Wyoming +35
quote:
Total card for today (playing against the pub):
Temple W
Tulsa L
GSU L
UCLA W
Tenn +16 W
North Texas +28.5 W
Iowa State +37.5 W
Maryland +7 W
Umass +14.5 W
Miami Ohio +25.5 W
Tulane +23.5 W
Vandy +3 W
VT -2.5 L
Buffalo +3 W
Kent State +14.5 L
Charlotte +15.5 L
UCF +21.5 L
UTEP +6 W
Miami +7 L
UVA +15.5 W
Cuse +7 W
WKU +15
FSU -5.5 (square, baby) L
A&M +7
Utah +7
Will add USCw tonight
14-8. Added A&M +7, Utah +7, and Wyoming +35
This post was edited on 10/24/15 at 9:14 pm
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:48 pm to Enfuego
less go trojans. heading for a modest 3-1 on the day
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:49 pm to TheOcean
Sooooo many plays 
Posted on 10/24/15 at 7:00 pm to HailToTheChiz
Pub got slaughtered on a lot of plays today
Posted on 10/24/15 at 7:07 pm to TheOcean
WKU came to play, boys
Posted on 10/24/15 at 7:07 pm to TheOcean
Damn Covey is a beast...
Posted on 10/24/15 at 7:33 pm to JG77056
quote:
And Michigan St with the no sweat cover..
I hope you're being sarcastic. Either that or you didn't actually watch the game.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 7:53 pm to FulshearTiger
Trojans offense starting to roll.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 8:04 pm to accnodefense
quote:
-700 = 86% chance, dumbass
And why would that lose money in the long run? Kinda like duke v army is "chasing steam" or Clemson was a "square play", dipshit?
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