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Message
re: Official Week 8 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 10/24/15 at 4:39 pm to Zipfer2022
Posted on 10/24/15 at 4:39 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
I took the -700 ML. Hopefully LSU just trucks them. Don't want to sweat
And you have a 86% chance of winning.
But in the long run making bets like that would lose you money.
3
Posted on 10/24/15 at 4:45 pm to accnodefense
quote:
But in the long run making bets like that would lose you money.
Agree 100%
But tonight is the exception. And I'd say LSU's chances of winning are more like 97%. 86%? You really think WKU would beat LSU at home 3/20 times?
This post was edited on 10/24/15 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:03 pm to Zipfer2022
5dimes live game bets are awesome
Got Bama -4.5 -110
Got Bama -4.5 -110
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:08 pm to Zipfer2022
3 out of 20? Yes. With their offense they can win any game. We don't convert on some third downs, drop some passes, they can beat us.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:22 pm to JG77056
WKU isn't winning 3 of 20 in this situation and I'm the most ruthless, unbiased LSU analyst on this board. I'll bet against them in a heartbeat.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:35 pm to ChemE in the OP
Well this Bama game blew any winnings I had since Thursday
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:49 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
But tonight is the exception. And I'd say LSU's chances of winning are more like 97%. 86%? You really think
My model says WKU wins 39.1% of the time
So the LSU money line is an awful value bet
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:54 pm to JG77056
frick I was close to that Alabama 2h cover
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:57 pm to JG77056
Duke gonna blow the 3.5 in OT
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:57 pm to The Boat
Got VT -2.5 
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:58 pm to accnodefense
quote:
My model says WKU wins 39.1% of the time.
Time for some tuning. Big bet on WKU spread?
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:58 pm to ChemE in the OP
How do you figure? They aren't garbage and we are overrated at this point. It's not like the home field advantage will be the same vs an SEC opponent because the populace plans on leaving at halftime.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 5:59 pm to ChemE in the OP
I think WKU wins somewhere between 3/20 and 39.1% 
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:02 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Time for some tuning. Big bet on WKU spread?
I have tuning to do tomorrow, but Western Kentucky is the #20 team in my model and LSU is #15. Gap is not that large.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:03 pm to accnodefense
Added A&M +7
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:03 pm to TheOcean
I just think it's a good opportunity for the hometown hedge is all. I just took the points though.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:04 pm to TheOcean
Have A&M on ML
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:05 pm to accnodefense
This Clemson bet o made was pretty square. Lol.
Posted on 10/24/15 at 6:08 pm to JG77056
TD VT
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