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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:03 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:03 pm to ChemE in the OP
I took WKU-2 for 2 units and WVU for 1.5 units
0
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:11 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
I'll take the under as the lock of the week
315. Pay the bookie.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:23 pm to bamafan425
Just polling the audience here...
Am I the only one that thinks
KState -6.5 @ Iowa State
Looks like more of a "lock" than
West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech?
Am I the only one that thinks
KState -6.5 @ Iowa State
Looks like more of a "lock" than
West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech?
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:26 pm to dgtiger3
I am in that boat. KState seems to be a more complete team.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:29 pm to bamafan425
I like K St, however, one thing to keep in mind is the big game next week with WV. Same with UF, Ilike them but could get caught looking ahead to S. Carolina.
I was considering a 6pt tease, which is all my bookie allows.
UF -2
K.St.-1
I was considering a 6pt tease, which is all my bookie allows.
UF -2
K.St.-1
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:34 pm to dgtiger3
I like K State and WV to cover. I just went through the lines and will be going over them in depth in my night class hopefully. Just from first glance though I like these:
Duke +10 (board favorite it seems)
KState -7
Stanford +8
West Virginia -4.5
Baylor -8 (tcu qb crisis)
Games I'm going to look at more:
UAB +14.5
Fresno St +7.5
Bama -21.5 (if it drops to 21)
Tennessee +3
ULM -24
LA Tech +8
Kent St -1.5
Thursday/Friday games I'll probably bet last minute.
Duke +10 (board favorite it seems)
KState -7
Stanford +8
West Virginia -4.5
Baylor -8 (tcu qb crisis)
Games I'm going to look at more:
UAB +14.5
Fresno St +7.5
Bama -21.5 (if it drops to 21)
Tennessee +3
ULM -24
LA Tech +8
Kent St -1.5
Thursday/Friday games I'll probably bet last minute.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:49 pm to tigerbaittrick
What are people's reasons behind road favorite Western Kentucky on Thursday?
Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:51 pm to WRedmondsStang
quote:
I like K St, however, one thing to keep in mind is the big game next week with WV.
Definitely a big factor into the line but I have a problem with that logic in this game for two reasons.
A) Iowa State beat an unbeaten Oklahoma St at home last year to ruin their National Title dreams, I'll bet all the money in my online account that the K-State coaching staff will be reminding the team of this all week.
B) Kansas St. is not the kind of team that is very vulnerable to being upset by an inferior team. They don't rely heavily on creating turnovers on defense (like that Okie St. team did last year). And they don't have a complicated offense that is built around picking up huge chunks of yards through the air.
For the most part the line you up and pound you until they wear you down physically. I think Iowa State can hang around for a little while, but when they have to start taking chances to win the game K-State should pull away.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:01 pm to dgtiger3
Iowa +10
Tennessee +3
Bama -21.5
USCe +2.5
all seem like good plays to keep an eye on. especially Iowa
Tennessee +3
Bama -21.5
USCe +2.5
all seem like good plays to keep an eye on. especially Iowa
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:04 pm to SDVTiger
Not to be a homer, but I'd stay away from the south Carolina LSU game altogether.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:04 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
What are people's reasons behind road favorite Western Kentucky on Thursday?
For me it's all about the matchup. Western Kentucky has been a much better team this year, and they are averaging 215 yards a game on the ground. Troy hasn't been able to stop the run giving up 190 a game. (218 to ULL and 213 to Miss. St. both at home).
The only reasons I can assume the line is low is because the WKU QB is listed as probable and it is a Thursday night game on the road. Troy has been the better team for the past few years, but that wont have any barring on the outcome Thursday night.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:05 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Iowa +10
This line is way to high. IMO
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:19 pm to SDVTiger
17 plays in Week 7.
Last week, the overall record finished 13-4 on all plays. The stronger 11 in that group finished 10-1.
Week 7 Leans/Small Plays
Duke +10
Utah +8
South Carolina +2.5 (will not bet against LSU)
Washington St +7.5
Week 7 Stronger Plays
WKU -2.5
Pitt +3
Houston -13.5
Toledo -13
SMU -19
Ohio U -20.5
Ball St -3
Alabama -21
Utah St +3.5
Wyoming +1.5
UCF -17
ULM -24
Ohio St -17
NFL was great last week as well: 9-3.
Last week, the overall record finished 13-4 on all plays. The stronger 11 in that group finished 10-1.
Week 7 Leans/Small Plays
Duke +10
Utah +8
South Carolina +2.5 (will not bet against LSU)
Washington St +7.5
Week 7 Stronger Plays
WKU -2.5
Pitt +3
Houston -13.5
Toledo -13
SMU -19
Ohio U -20.5
Ball St -3
Alabama -21
Utah St +3.5
Wyoming +1.5
UCF -17
ULM -24
Ohio St -17
NFL was great last week as well: 9-3.
This post was edited on 10/9/12 at 5:20 pm
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:23 pm to LSUAlum2001
You use the same principles in your NFL spreadsheet as CFB?
I like most of those plays, but a lot of high spreads scare me.
SMU is down to -15.5.
When do you lock your bets in? Now? Or wait til later in the week?
I like most of those plays, but a lot of high spreads scare me.
SMU is down to -15.5.
When do you lock your bets in? Now? Or wait til later in the week?
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:27 pm to dgtiger3
And the way Thursday night home dogs have been hitting, I'm sure that is factored in to the line too. While Thursday home dogs have been incredible this season, they can't cover all the time. A regression is due since they have been covering machines the past few weeks. I like WKY here
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:32 pm to bamafan425
quote:
You use the same principles in your NFL spreadsheet as CFB?
There are 3 spreadsheets:
1. Blacklist Spreadsheet is Chris Green's. I'll be tailing him on his heavy leans and 3:1 rations.
2. My CFB spreadsheet finally had a good week to reverse a weak downward trend over the last several. It usually picks up from W6-W11.
3. My NFL spreadsheet is currently 18-11 overall.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:33 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
I like WKY here
WKU is very good. I expect them to beat Troy by DDs.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:34 pm to bamafan425
quote:
When do you lock your bets in? Now? Or wait til later in the week?
Later. I was just getting the games out there. I was late submitting some plays on here the last two weeks on the Thurs/Fri games so I decided to put them out early.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:35 pm to TigerTatorTots
Both teams coming off a bye week. I think the play is WKU, but you never know.
On another note, anyone else like Colorado getting 3+ scores at home on Thursday? They are awful, but damn.
Tulsa -10/OVER 51 teaser looks solid for Thursday night as well.
On another note, anyone else like Colorado getting 3+ scores at home on Thursday? They are awful, but damn.
Tulsa -10/OVER 51 teaser looks solid for Thursday night as well.
Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:36 pm to dgtiger3
Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 6 games vs MSU
K Ferentz's is 30-17 in Revenge games
TE Sims is out for MSU. Bell was hurt as well
Unless LSU goes into the Gun for the entire game (which they should) i have a hard time backing them.
LSU's magic last year came from there Defense (mostly Honey B) not seeing that magic this year. I hate to say that too
May stay away but I think USCe might win the NC.
They are beast on D. They have some monster DT's and obviously the DE's are stout
K Ferentz's is 30-17 in Revenge games
TE Sims is out for MSU. Bell was hurt as well
Unless LSU goes into the Gun for the entire game (which they should) i have a hard time backing them.
LSU's magic last year came from there Defense (mostly Honey B) not seeing that magic this year. I hate to say that too
May stay away but I think USCe might win the NC.
They are beast on D. They have some monster DT's and obviously the DE's are stout
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