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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 5 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 9/25/12 at 8:04 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Posted on 9/25/12 at 8:04 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Not sure if I'll bet this week, as last week hurt me pretty good and my 5dimes is now empty as a result of the NFL debacle last night 
. Here's what caught my eye at first look of the lines though. Wanna bounce my thoughts off you guys and see if we can get some more insight and better results, b/c who am I kidding, I'm gonna reload and go again .
-Clemson -10 @ BC: Don't know much about BC, but I remember two weeks ago people on here were all over Northwestern vs. them. Clemson should be able to score, but would like to hear from someone that knows a little more about BC.
-USCe -21 @ KY: that D looks really good, and KY is just really bad. Could be trap game as UGA is next for USCe though.
-TCU -16.5 @ SMU: last SMU score I saw was them getting rolled by TAMU. TCU seemed to score when they wanted to last week, and just let off the gas a little at the end.
-TAMU -13.5 v. Ark: Ark is just reeling and their D is just really bad(over 500yds to Rutgers). JFF should have a big day.
-WVU -12.5 v. Baylor: I'm leery of WVU in general b/c they seem to shite the bed when I bet them. Over/under might be the better play since both teams can light up the score board.
-Zona State +2.5 @ Cal: Cal did not look good at all last week, ASU did. When ASU's offense is clicking it's hard to stop.
-L'ville -10.5 @ USM: like Bridgewater, and as previously mentioned, USM is on 3rd string qb
-Nebraska -13 v. Wisky: Know very little about both teams other than Wisky seems to be down this year and Nebraska just put up 60+ on a "little sisters of the poor" school.
-UL Monroe -18 @ Tulane: UL Monroe is for real, Tulane is not. Are they still starting the true freshman qb?
No bets have been placed, just some games that caught my eye. Any input appreciated...
. Here's what caught my eye at first look of the lines though. Wanna bounce my thoughts off you guys and see if we can get some more insight and better results, b/c who am I kidding, I'm gonna reload and go again . -Clemson -10 @ BC: Don't know much about BC, but I remember two weeks ago people on here were all over Northwestern vs. them. Clemson should be able to score, but would like to hear from someone that knows a little more about BC.
-USCe -21 @ KY: that D looks really good, and KY is just really bad. Could be trap game as UGA is next for USCe though.
-TCU -16.5 @ SMU: last SMU score I saw was them getting rolled by TAMU. TCU seemed to score when they wanted to last week, and just let off the gas a little at the end.
-TAMU -13.5 v. Ark: Ark is just reeling and their D is just really bad(over 500yds to Rutgers). JFF should have a big day.
-WVU -12.5 v. Baylor: I'm leery of WVU in general b/c they seem to shite the bed when I bet them. Over/under might be the better play since both teams can light up the score board.
-Zona State +2.5 @ Cal: Cal did not look good at all last week, ASU did. When ASU's offense is clicking it's hard to stop.
-L'ville -10.5 @ USM: like Bridgewater, and as previously mentioned, USM is on 3rd string qb
-Nebraska -13 v. Wisky: Know very little about both teams other than Wisky seems to be down this year and Nebraska just put up 60+ on a "little sisters of the poor" school.
-UL Monroe -18 @ Tulane: UL Monroe is for real, Tulane is not. Are they still starting the true freshman qb?
No bets have been placed, just some games that caught my eye. Any input appreciated...
0
Posted on 9/25/12 at 8:08 am to bamafan425
quote:
Good luck! Anyone need injury news, I've been neck deep in injury reports. Got the SEC, ACC, CUSA, Sun Belt, Big 12, and independents.
Bama, how hard has it been getting all of the information for player injuries? I actually applied for the job a day or so after it was posted so it was probably too late by then. Just curious to see how long it's taking you to get everything they need
Posted on 9/25/12 at 9:36 am to bctiger6
It was kinda overwhelming at first cause I got thrown in on a Friday. So I was hustling to get it updated before gameday then spent a few hours on gameday updating my conferences. Sunday was the real crunch. Looking at box scores and participation reports for all 6 of my conferences was tedious but luckily I got in a rhythm. Then yesterday was updating new injuries after coaches had their press conferences. Twitter has been my best friend.
RAS had me break down a box score for him and testing me out with some general handicapping research too.
RAS had me break down a box score for him and testing me out with some general handicapping research too.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 9:58 am to bamafan425
So I just did a breakdown of all of his plays up to date.
So far, he is 24-17-1 on the year.
I know people talk about how he moves lines, but out of those 24 wins, only one was +/- 5 point differential.
Out of the 17 losses, 6 were +/- 5 point differential.
So at WORST case he would be 23-18-1 on the year so far.
Needless to say, I have made up my mind that I am going to tail him from here on out.
So far, he is 24-17-1 on the year.
I know people talk about how he moves lines, but out of those 24 wins, only one was +/- 5 point differential.
Out of the 17 losses, 6 were +/- 5 point differential.
So at WORST case he would be 23-18-1 on the year so far.
Needless to say, I have made up my mind that I am going to tail him from here on out.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 10:44 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Problem is, you have to get his picks the split second they come out or else you aren't getting the same lines.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 10:45 am to HoLeInOnEr05
RAS' plays is what you're referring to right?
Posted on 9/25/12 at 10:54 am to dcrews
quote:
Problem is, you have to get his picks the split second they come out or else you aren't getting the same lines.
Did you not read what I said? Only one game that he won was +/- 5 points of his release line! That means that it could have shifted 5 points either way, and you still would have won on ALL but one bet!
quote:
okietiger
Yea, I went through all of his picks from weeks 1-4 and broke every score, and line down. All of his wins, except for one, was a comfortable win, meaning the line changes with his picks wouldn't have mattered.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 10:55 am to HoLeInOnEr05
When does he release them?
Posted on 9/25/12 at 10:58 am to okietiger
He already has 4 out this week ...
Kent St +2.5 now +1
Texas St +22.5 now +20
North Texas -4.5 now -6.5
Tulane +20 now +18
He usually releases his plays on totals on Thursday
YTD he is hitting at a 57% clip.
Week 1: 8-4-1
Week 2: 4-7 (everybody got hammered)
Week 3: 5-5 (6-5 if you count his 2H play on Va Tech, which I didn't)
Week 4: 7-1 (we all could have used that last week)
Kent St +2.5 now +1
Texas St +22.5 now +20
North Texas -4.5 now -6.5
Tulane +20 now +18
He usually releases his plays on totals on Thursday
YTD he is hitting at a 57% clip.
Week 1: 8-4-1
Week 2: 4-7 (everybody got hammered)
Week 3: 5-5 (6-5 if you count his 2H play on Va Tech, which I didn't)
Week 4: 7-1 (we all could have used that last week
)This post was edited on 9/25/12 at 11:01 am
Posted on 9/25/12 at 11:06 am to HoLeInOnEr05
All those lines are still pretty good, not crossing key numbers.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 11:09 am to HoLeInOnEr05
I read it. Tailing is already hit or miss, but eventually tailing someone based on the premise that he will win even if the line is 5 points off seems like it would bite you in the butt.
I have no room to form an opinion, as my betting methods yield poverty
BoL
I have no room to form an opinion, as my betting methods yield poverty
BoL
Posted on 9/25/12 at 11:13 am to dcrews
He's been killing the totals lately. The last column is the average line value -- the difference in the line he got and the closing line.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 11:53 am to dcrews
quote:
Tailing is already hit or miss, but eventually tailing someone based on the premise that he will win even if the line is 5 points off seems like it would bite you in the butt.
After 4 weeks, there is enough data to support the theory that you don't have to get the lines he releases to be successful. When he wins, it's by a large margin.
Also to be successful in tailing someone, you have to play EVERY play they put out. You can't pick and choose. What makes RAS so good is that he rarely bets anything over a unit, so losing bigger plays doesn't bite you in the arse, and set you back on the day.
I will also try to research Vegas Runner's picks from week 1-4 ... I have followed him on quite a few plays and have been successful.
Last week alone he hit at a 69% clip between the NFL and College, making 16 total bets, and was 6-1 in his 3* plays, which are his biggest bets.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 12:12 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
I feel like the public will push at least 2 of the RAS picks lines back the other way. I can see the public hammering ULM and Ball St. I will wait and see if these numbers get better closer to game time. I waited on WK last week and it improved from -4.5 after RAS released it, to -3 at game time. Nevertheless, it did not matter- LOL, USM. However, I am extremely peculiar about my numbers and adding value to my plays!!
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:35 pm to WRedmondsStang
Injury question for Bamafan. Any word on whether or not Lunt is going to play for OSU this weekend against Texas?
Posted on 9/25/12 at 3:41 pm to DFWAggie09
He's questionable. Gundy kept it pretty vague yesterday in his presser. Lunt got his cast off yesterday and the doctors said he "looked good" whatever that means. Gundy hoped he could have him out there by the end of the week.
I would put money on Walsh playing right now over Lunt. But it could change. I'll keep an extra lookout for this and let you know.
I would put money on Walsh playing right now over Lunt. But it could change. I'll keep an extra lookout for this and let you know.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 4:07 pm to bamafan425
Awesome, thanks for the update. 
Anyone else really like Texas -3 in that game?
Anyone else really like Texas -3 in that game?Posted on 9/25/12 at 4:15 pm to DFWAggie09
I have them at -2.5 and I know a lot of other people in this thread liked them as well.
If I'm not mistaken, Texas opened at +3.
If I'm not mistaken, Texas opened at +3.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 4:22 pm to dcrews
I think I heard them open as high as +5.5 and it just got HAMMERED.
I like Texas. They are on a mission to return to the too. But again, my picks have been shite, so maybe OSU is the play.
I like Texas. They are on a mission to return to the too. But again, my picks have been shite, so maybe OSU is the play.
Posted on 9/25/12 at 4:32 pm to bamafan425
USM's third stringer Lloyd is a RS, not a TR
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