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re: OFFICIAL Week 3 CFB bet thread™

Posted on 9/12/12 at 9:51 pm to
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 9:51 pm to
#480
This post was edited on 9/12/12 at 9:52 pm
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
171955 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 9:52 pm to
Opened at 21.5. I got a few units on that
Posted by lsu223
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
2169 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 10:10 pm to
Anyone know why sportsbook hasn't put up a line for the WVU game?
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 10:11 pm to
I think a lot of people have taken it off the board ...
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25713 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 10:12 pm to
Lots of books don't put lines on games like that until day of, if they put one out at all.
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/12/12 at 10:14 pm to
Arizona State moved up to (+7)
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16906 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 1:34 am to
Thoughts on Boston College @ Northwestern -3?

Seems like a pretty strong play should be in order. Northwestern has faced 2 stronger opponents in Miami and Vanderbilt.

This is probably going to be my largest play of the week.
Posted by Cowbells
USA
Member since Aug 2012
554 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 3:15 am to
Season Total: 10-3 (+11 Units)
Week 1: 4-1 (+5 Units)
Week 2: 6-2 (+6 Units)

My week 3 plays below. Too many damn favorites! Also, sucks that I missed out on WVU -21.5

2* Penn State -5½ vs Navy
1* Tennessee -3 vs Florida   
1* Virginia Tech -12 vs Pittsburgh  
1* UCLA -17 vs Houston  
1* Texas A&M -13 vs SMU
1* UL Lafayette/Oklahoma State Over 73½

1* Wong Teaser:
South Florida -1½ vs Rutgers
Southern Mississippi -1½ vs East Carolina  
Posted by Ford Frenzy
337 posts
Member since Aug 2010
6878 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:15 am to
Pitt has been absolutely hot garbage lately, everyone knows it, VT (whether or not they are good) has a good public reputation...that line seems really low and like VT is the obvious pick, it reeks of a trap
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:28 am to
I never know how to read "lock of the week" games/lines. If LSU came out (-1) against Cupcake state, somehow we would all find a way to overthink it.

What reasoning would Va Tech not win by 10?

Suspensions?
Injuries?
Weather?
Stadium?
Opposing team?

There really shouldn't be anything Vegas knows that we can't be privvy to without a little bit of research.
Posted by Ford Frenzy
337 posts
Member since Aug 2010
6878 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:38 am to
quote:

There really shouldn't be anything Vegas knows that we can't be privvy to without a little bit of research.
Pitt lost by 14 to Youngstown St and by 24 to Cincy....they could easily be 14-16 point dogs to VT and action would at least be 50/50 if not more on VT still, yet they open it at 11.5 and it's dropped to 10
Posted by dgtiger3
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
5703 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:40 am to
quote:

I never know how to read "lock of the week" games/lines. If LSU came out (-1) against Cupcake state, somehow we would all find a way to overthink it.


While I tend to agree, the main reason is Vegas does not give away free money, this ja their livelyhood. While they are not perfext, they have 20 computer geeks that have full time work weeks setting these lines and they would still get heavy VT action at -13.5 yet they set the line at 10. That's why we over think it.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:41 am to


for starters va tech is 0-2 against the spread and has a below average run game. logan smith, has a load of potential, but is def. struggling to be consistent; sunseri has better numbers!

so when betting Va tech, you have to hope they 1) go on the road and win by double digits 2) with no running game and 3) a up and down QB.

and ftr, i am not betting the game, just providing info on the other side of the line.
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:46 am to
Just to clarify, it wasn't a knock on anyone. I'm just trying to find a nice balance between lines that are too good to be true and lines that have great value.

I myself, tend to overthink, everything, but like the WVU (-21.5) line, if you take a significant amount of time thinking whether or not the line is going to screw you, you miss out on some heavy value.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25713 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:47 am to
I thought the game was neutral?

Edit:
It's in DC, pretty much smack dab in the middle between VaTech and Pitt. So not really a road game. Id suspect VaTech will have a better fan turnout than Pitt.
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 8:52 am
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:51 am to
quote:

What reasoning would Va Tech not win by 10?


overrated, untested team on the road

i actually like the over at 44
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25713 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:54 am to
I'm confused why everyone's viewing this as a road game?
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 8:55 am to
Well technically it is away from home

Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 9:01 am to
because its not a home game?

so there is no home field *advantage* (and vatech has one of the better HF advantages in football)
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 9:24 am
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25713 posts
Posted on 9/13/12 at 9:05 am to
Pitt is 92nd in sacks allowed, giving up 3 per game. That's against YSU and Cincy.

Pitt is going on the road as well then?


Edit:
I'm totally wrong. It's in Pitt. My bad.
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 9:07 am
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