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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 CFB Bet Thread™
Posted on 8/24/12 at 12:48 pm to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 8/24/12 at 12:48 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Every couple of weeks, I set aside about $50 to $100 and try to win 5 consecutive bets, rolling everything over into the next.
The odds of doing this in sports betting is almost unheard of. Even just using 50-50 chances it is 25% chance you win 4 in a row then 12.5% you win the 5th. Thats just simple math from 50-50 chances much less actual betting odds. Therefor, no it doesnt work once a year. LOL. So lets say you have 20 weeks to bet. You do it 10 weeks of that time. You hit 1 of 10 weeks doing this? You do this 10% of the time when actuality those odds are not even close to where the real 5050 chance odds are. You would be charging 1k per pick if so. Forgot to post the 1 in 32 times a 50-50 chance hits 5 straight times. Somehow you do it 1 of 10 tho.
Cliffs...You luckboxed one time and think you are a great picker when you really were just lucky one time.
This post was edited on 8/24/12 at 12:54 pm
1
Posted on 8/24/12 at 12:56 pm to VegasPro
quote:
You luckboxed one time and think you are a great picker when you really were just lucky one time.
Twice in 5 years out of about 10 times trying it.
I only do it when I like the Thurs/Friday games and 3 games spread out early/mid/late on Saturday.
This post was edited on 8/24/12 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:00 pm to TigerTatorTots
totally missed this thread. Looks like I have a lot of reading to do before I start betting.
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:00 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Twice in 5 years out of about 10 times trying it.
I only do it when I like the Thurs/Friday games and 3 games spread out early/mid/late on Saturday.
Like I said, you luckboxed....
This is from a probability guys site. Its for 5 favorites to win.
Let's estimate each of your teams has approximately an 85% chance to win. (90% is just too high... I don't think any of those teams win 9 times out of 10 in this spot, yet I'll concede that 8 times out of 10 seems too low.)
If you had just one team, you would win 85% of the time. (8.5 / 10)
With each additional game you add, the chances of you winning all games are reduced.
For example, if you had two teams, each with an 85% chance to win, you would win both of them 72.25% of the time. (8.5 / 10 x 8.5 / 10)
By the time you get to five teams, there's just a 44.37% chance that all five will win. (8.5 / 10 x 8.5 / 10 x 8.5 / 10 x 8.5 / 10 x 8.5 / 10)
At that percentage, the bet wins $120 44 times (+$5,280), and loses $100 56 times, (-$5,600) for a net loss of $320 over 100 such bets.
Of course, if you DO believe that each game by itself has, say, a 90% chance of winning, your chances of winning all five are 9/10 to the 5th power which is about 59%. Then the bet becomes a positive EV bet. (60 x $120) + (40 x -$100)
So to actually win money doin this you have to think that all those teams win 9 of 10 times. Thats just huge moneylne favorites.
A 3 team parlay will win 1 of 8 times. Somehow you come close to doing that with a 5 team parlay.
Not saying you are lying or anything, just saying you lucked up pretty hugely.
This post was edited on 8/24/12 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:06 pm to VegasPro
:mindblown:
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:07 pm to VegasPro
quote:
Not saying you are lying or anything, just saying you lucked up pretty hugely.
There's a case for reasonable doubt.
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:13 pm to rocket31
Just added a big play on a prop bet...
Notre Dame under 8 wins (-155)
Good luck!
Notre Dame under 8 wins (-155)
Good luck!
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:14 pm to ChemE in the OP
Yea that line is pretty good looking. 5 teams in top 20 on the schedule.
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:15 pm to VegasPro
quote:
Like I said, you luckboxed....
Of course there is luck involved.
I covered the 3rd bet of last year's 5+ winning streak on a Boise State 1st half bet in the last 30 seconds of the half.
Some people get too tight when the bets get huge. Like I said, if you don't care if you lose a $1500 bet because, it really started out as only $50 from your pocket, you don't second guess yourself.
Lastly, when someone posts 5 bets in this thread, their hope is to go 5-0. This is just trying to do it in succession.
quote:
There's a case for reasonable doubt
I'll locate the processed bets from that week if sportsbook has them on file. The mobile version doesn't allow me to view last year's bets.
This post was edited on 8/24/12 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:40 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Notre Dame under 8 wins (-155)
New to the betting scene, does this include post season play or does it depend on the betting site?
Example: They go 7-5, then win a bowl game to be 8-5
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:44 pm to dcrews
Regular season only.
Posted on 8/24/12 at 1:54 pm to ChemE in the OP
LSU over 10 +115
UGA over 10 +155
I absolutely LOVE those
ETA: Worst case push on both IMO
UGA over 10 +155
I absolutely LOVE those
ETA: Worst case push on both IMO
This post was edited on 8/24/12 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:01 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
I had turned $50 into $4000 from Monday to Sunday that week.
My goal this season is to turn that $400.00 into $1000.00 and then cash out for Christmas and have a rager of a good time
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:07 pm to Tornado Alley
quote:
Alabama -8
How did you get this line?
Golden Nugget GOY opened at -11
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:14 pm to dcrews
quote:
New to the betting scene, does this include post season play or does it depend on the betting site? Example: They go 7-5, then win a bowl game to be 8-5
Postseason excluded. Only regular season
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:19 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Notre Dame under 8 wins (-155)
thats a solid bet.
there is a far greater probability ND goes 7-5 rather than 9-3; id say you have less than 20% chance of losing with the most likely result being a push.
my favorite win total bet is OSU 8.5 which i loaded up on months ago (4 unit play)
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:21 pm to wish i was tebow
Tebow or 3T what is the call on the Baylor SMU game? I like Baylor but not sure.
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:31 pm to sms151t
Locked in Bama -12 1100 to win 1000
Miami (OH)+23 1100 to win 1000
Miami (OH)+23 1100 to win 1000
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:47 pm to SDVTiger
quote:5dimes opened at -8 or 7.5 back in January
How did you get this line?
Posted on 8/24/12 at 2:48 pm to sms151t
quote:Don't know much on either team this year
Tebow or 3T what is the call on the Baylor SMU game? I like Baylor but not sure.
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