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re: Official NFL Week 1 Bet Thread
Posted on 9/2/14 at 3:36 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 9/2/14 at 3:36 pm to ChemE in the OP
Will Cowherd's picks this year be shittastic like last year?
1
Posted on 9/2/14 at 3:39 pm to ChemE in the OP
I have the Saints as a pick'em on my parlay card. Have to take that.
also liking Titans +5
Bucs/Panthers under 39
also liking Titans +5
Bucs/Panthers under 39
This post was edited on 9/2/14 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 9/2/14 at 3:47 pm to FAF
Cowherd's picks are just like his show in general...
Be as contrarian as possible.
So, just go to a site that tracks % of wagers and he'll be on the 5 teams getting the least love under the assumption that he wants what the books need. Doesn't always work out that way though.
Be as contrarian as possible.
So, just go to a site that tracks % of wagers and he'll be on the 5 teams getting the least love under the assumption that he wants what the books need. Doesn't always work out that way though.
Posted on 9/2/14 at 6:14 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Cowherd's picks are just like his show in general...
Be as contrarian as possible.
So, just go to a site that tracks % of wagers and he'll be on the 5 teams getting the least love under the assumption that he wants what the books need. Doesn't always work out that way though.
His show on Sunday mornings is pretty useful when his segment with Chad Millman comes on.
This year I may just make all of my bets really close to game time and see what kind of value I can get on the numbers.
Posted on 9/2/14 at 6:17 pm to dcrews
quote:
This year I may just make all of my bets really close to game time and see what kind of value I can get on the numbers.
That's not a good way to get "value" on bets though unless you like the direction a line is moving to
Posted on 9/2/14 at 7:16 pm to castorinho
quote:
That's not a good way to get "value" on bets though unless you like the direction a line is moving to
That's the beauty of sports betting. I hold the ultimate trump card - being able to pass.
For instance, I figured that Saints/Faclons game would be close. I wasn't sure which way I wanted to bet, but now that the points have taken a 4 point swing, I can grab the home team getting 3 points versus the road team getting only 1 point (which is what the line opened at)
My goal in playing games is to get the number I want when it's at its highest/lowest (depending on dog vs favorite).
Posted on 9/2/14 at 7:37 pm to ChemE in the OP
Already have
Denver -6.5 for 2 units(grabbed it early)
Also like
Tenn +4.5
Oak/NYJ Under 39.5
Carolina/Tampa Bay Under 39
Denver -6.5 for 2 units(grabbed it early)
Also like
Tenn +4.5
Oak/NYJ Under 39.5
Carolina/Tampa Bay Under 39
Posted on 9/3/14 at 7:55 am to ChemE in the OP
First two NFL plays of the year...
Sep 07 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[464] ATL FALCONS +3-120
240 / 200
Sep 04 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[461] GB PACKERS +6-110
165 / 150
Sep 07 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[464] ATL FALCONS +3-120
240 / 200
Sep 04 NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[461] GB PACKERS +6-110
165 / 150
Posted on 9/3/14 at 8:21 am to ChemE in the OP
I'd like to do a Hilton Style contest in this thread if anybody's interested. Pick 5 games a week against Wednesday's lines and see how we'd do in the real contest. It's one of the few major contests where you can play along at home.
Posted on 9/3/14 at 8:24 am to DallasTiger45
MIA +5 vs. NE
DEN -7 vs. IND
CHI -7 vs. BUF
STL -3.5 vs. MIN
Also like:
GB +6 at SEA
CLE +7 at PIT
DEN -7 vs. IND
CHI -7 vs. BUF
STL -3.5 vs. MIN
Also like:
GB +6 at SEA
CLE +7 at PIT
Posted on 9/3/14 at 10:02 am to Billy Mays
I was looking at the StL play as well but so many unknowns...
Posted on 9/3/14 at 10:45 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I was looking at the StL play as well but so many unknowns...
Yeah I'm basically subscribing to the theory that Shaun Hill is little-to-no dropoff from Bradford.
The media made Bradford's injury seem like it was crippling to the team, which changed the public perception of the Rams a bit. The advanced line from the LVH was STL -5.5. So I see some value.
I obv. like STL's DL vs. Matt Cassel, too...
Posted on 9/3/14 at 10:50 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
ATL FALCONS +3-120
quote:
GB PACKERS +6-110
Love them both. I think I can get GB +6.5 at -115 on 5dimes at the moment.
Gonna hit up some plays at lunch.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 6:26 am to dcrews
6 point teaser
Seahawks - pick
Bears -1
Not a big fan of teasers, but I like this one.
Oh and I tried a money line parlay on the teams above and the return wasn't as good
Seahawks - pick
Bears -1
Not a big fan of teasers, but I like this one.
Oh and I tried a money line parlay on the teams above and the return wasn't as good
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:58 am to GamblinGoat
Kickoff less than 9 hours away, bump...
Posted on 9/4/14 at 2:54 pm to ChemE in the OP
Should have grabbed GB at +6. Got greedy and wanted to see if I could get the hook, but no dice. It's back to 5.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:23 pm to dcrews
I'm thinking that Seattle is the play here. Doesn't Green Bay have o-line issues? That, against that Seattle D-line, in that environment is gonna be tough to stay within a score.
I hate Seattle though, so I hate to bet on them.
I hate Seattle though, so I hate to bet on them.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:37 pm to supadave3
Took Seattle -5
Refs scare me, but I just see the SuperBowl winner at home first game of season winning. And I think it'll be by a TD (at least).
Refs scare me, but I just see the SuperBowl winner at home first game of season winning. And I think it'll be by a TD (at least).
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:39 pm to tigerbaittrick
quote:
Refs scare me
Yeah, thats concerning to me too.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 4:45 pm to ChemE in the OP
line is at 5, was hoping to get 6. I'll keep watching
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