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re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 6
Posted on 10/2/13 at 3:49 pm to tigerNation09
Posted on 10/2/13 at 3:49 pm to tigerNation09
I'm right here. That's all you need to worry about
1
Posted on 10/2/13 at 4:21 pm to wish i was tebow
Anyword on Stephen Morris? That will get me off Miami quick fast in a hurry if hes out
Posted on 10/2/13 at 4:30 pm to JG77056
quote:
beware of oregon in the second half
Yeah typically I don't actually do it. Do look at the 3Q line because they still score some in the third quarter and I have bet and won on that twice so far this season.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 4:36 pm to blades8088
He's probably. I think he plays. There back up isn't bad. I like Miami. I think they are a better team and they have the ability to score quick and get tech off their game. Tech has a pretty solid D though
Posted on 10/2/13 at 5:28 pm to TigerTatorTots
My bets are in!
Took the first game in each matchup:
Utah St. -6 vs. BYU
Louisville -34 @ Temple
Penn St. -3 @ Indiana
Virginia Tech -7 vs. North Carolina
LSU -10 @ Mississippi St.
Vanderbilt -1 vs. Missouri
Baylor -28 vs. West Virginia
Washington +8 @ Stanford
Love LSU, Louisville, Penn St.
Thoughts?
ETA:
I'm 13-11-2 this year after a 2-6 week last week, but won all 7 of my big bets and knew going into last week I hated everything.
I love this weekend.
Took the first game in each matchup:
Utah St. -6 vs. BYU
Louisville -34 @ Temple
Penn St. -3 @ Indiana
Virginia Tech -7 vs. North Carolina
LSU -10 @ Mississippi St.
Vanderbilt -1 vs. Missouri
Baylor -28 vs. West Virginia
Washington +8 @ Stanford
Love LSU, Louisville, Penn St.
Thoughts?
ETA:
I'm 13-11-2 this year after a 2-6 week last week, but won all 7 of my big bets and knew going into last week I hated everything.
I love this weekend.
This post was edited on 10/2/13 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 10/2/13 at 5:29 pm to wish i was tebow
I built a spreadsheet and decided to add in a score predictor. Just thought I would throw this out here to test out how well it works. (I wouldn't recommend using these, just want to post for fun).
Top 6 Spread Bets
Oregon -39
Fresno State -26
Illinois +9
Cincinnati -11.5
Washington +7.5
Rutgers +5
Top 6 O/U Bets
Oregon vs Colorado Over 69
Fresno State vs Idaho Over 65
Illinois vs Nebraska Over 61
Arizona St. vs Notre Dame Over 62
Florida International vs Southern Miss Under 46.5
Tennessee vs Georgia Over 63.5
The one caveat is Oregon and Fresno St letting off the gas.
Top 6 Spread Bets
Oregon -39
Fresno State -26
Illinois +9
Cincinnati -11.5
Washington +7.5
Rutgers +5
Top 6 O/U Bets
Oregon vs Colorado Over 69
Fresno State vs Idaho Over 65
Illinois vs Nebraska Over 61
Arizona St. vs Notre Dame Over 62
Florida International vs Southern Miss Under 46.5
Tennessee vs Georgia Over 63.5
The one caveat is Oregon and Fresno St letting off the gas.
This post was edited on 10/2/13 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 10/2/13 at 5:47 pm to TDawg1313
quote:
I built a spreadsheet and decided to add in a score predictor. Just thought I would throw this out here to test out how well it works. (I wouldn't recommend using these, just want to post for fun).
How does the score predictor work?
Posted on 10/2/13 at 5:49 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Virginia Tech -7 vs. North Carolina
Virginia Tech ATS is not a play I can get behind. It almost seems as if that team actively goes out of its way to avoid covering a spread.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 6:11 pm to tigerNation09
quote:
Where is dgtiger?
I'm here bro. Been busier than normal this week, got a chance to run most of my numbers this morning. I have a few other things to breakdown and I will be posting my plays on Friday.
Love what I see so far though.
This post was edited on 10/2/13 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 10/2/13 at 6:13 pm to bobbyray21
This is what I have on the books so far:
LSU -9½ vs Mississippi State
Teaser:
Georgia State +63 * vs Alabama
Georgia -3 * vs Tennessee U
LSU -2 * vs Mississippi State
LSU -9½ vs Mississippi State
Teaser:
Georgia State +63 * vs Alabama
Georgia -3 * vs Tennessee U
LSU -2 * vs Mississippi State
Posted on 10/2/13 at 6:31 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
How does the score predictor work?
I'll use the Utah vs. UCLA game on Thursday as an example...
First of all, each team in the country has a defensive scoring ratio and an offensive scoring ratio.
Utah's Defensive Scoring Ratio: .6893
This was their scoring ratio against each of these teams...
BYU: .4194
Oregon St: 1.299
Utah State: .5909
FCS Team (Weber St): .4475 (I lumped all FCS teams together and took their average stats/game to use)
The scoring ratio is essentially the percentage of points that they gave up compared to their opponent's average points per game (not including their head to head game).
So basically they have held their opponents to .6893 times their scoring average.
Utah's Offensive scoring ratio is 1.6982. So they are scoring 1.6982 times more than their opponents typically give up.
UCLA Offensive Ratio: 1.7246
UCLA Defensive Ratio: .6289
So to put it all together, each team has 4 statistical categories that I use to calculate it.
Utah Points/Game: 42.00
Utah Offensive Ratio: 1.6982
Utah Defense Points/Game: 24.24
Utah Defensive Ratio: .6893
UCLA Points/Game: 52.67
UCLA Offensive Ratio: 1.7246
UCLA Defense Points/Game: 18.00
UCLA Defensive Ratio: .6289
So for my Utah score prediction, I did ((1.6982 x 18)+(.6289*42))/2 which comes out to 28.4907. I added 1.725 to that since they are the home team. So Utah's predicted score this game (rounded) is 30.
For my UCLA score prediction, I did ((1.7246*24.24)+(.6893*52.67))/2 which comes out to 39.0549. I subtracted 1.725 from that since they are on the road. That gives UCLA a predicted score of 37 (rounded).
So the final predicted score between Utah and UCLA is UCLA 37 - Utah 30 and it has a total score of 67.
Once I had the formula, I just applied it to every game in the country and compared it to the spreads and O/U lines that Vegas set. Both of my top 6 lists were the largest differences of the predicted scores and total score compared to the Vegas lines that were set.
I realize that there's some flaws in it and I'm not using a lot of different factors, but I'm just curious to see how accurate it is.
This post was edited on 10/2/13 at 6:39 pm
Posted on 10/2/13 at 6:37 pm to supadave3
I typically avoid betting on LSU games because I feel like I already have enough emotionally invested in watching the games and I don't want to add any extra stress to a game involving my Tigers.
With that being said I will be playing Mississippi State this weekend. One of my local options has them at +11 and its too good of a number to pass on. I ran the game this morning and all signs point to this being a very tight game, much closer than I had hoped. That's before you add in the fact that we are due for an emotional let down and this game is practically a Superbowl for them and it spells trouble.
Just looking at how my numbers have fared on LSU's games the past few weeks, I had LSU by 38 against Kent St (won by 32), LSU by 10 vs. Auburn (won by 14), and UGA by 3 (lost by 3)
I have this game at a pickem, which was shocking to me with the way Mississippi State has played. I could be wrong but I'm afraid Saturday's Win will be a lot more difficult than many think it is going to be.
With that being said I will be playing Mississippi State this weekend. One of my local options has them at +11 and its too good of a number to pass on. I ran the game this morning and all signs point to this being a very tight game, much closer than I had hoped. That's before you add in the fact that we are due for an emotional let down and this game is practically a Superbowl for them and it spells trouble.
Just looking at how my numbers have fared on LSU's games the past few weeks, I had LSU by 38 against Kent St (won by 32), LSU by 10 vs. Auburn (won by 14), and UGA by 3 (lost by 3)
I have this game at a pickem, which was shocking to me with the way Mississippi State has played. I could be wrong but I'm afraid Saturday's Win will be a lot more difficult than many think it is going to be.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:13 pm to dgtiger3
Deanthony Thomas unlikely to play this weekend for all you Oregon folks. Doubt that will slow them down to much but just fyi
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:14 pm to dgtiger3
That thin rocky mountain air might get to Oregon.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:15 pm to dgtiger3
I have a weird feeling about the MSU-LSU game this weekend. Seems like one of those games that LSU plays down to their competition.
MSU's defense is no slouch. Word around Starkville is that Dan is gonna start Russell. I think that's a mistake. He needs to start Dak. Stay with the hot hand. The team likes playing behind Dak.
MSU's defense is no slouch. Word around Starkville is that Dan is gonna start Russell. I think that's a mistake. He needs to start Dak. Stay with the hot hand. The team likes playing behind Dak.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:26 pm to bamafan425
I prefer betting against LSU in these situations when they are back at home laying 17 instead of 10 on the road. I think they get their game face on better on the road in letdown situations.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:38 pm to bamafan425
Lsu is a teaser only game here IMO.
They will win but it could be by 3 or 24. Who the hell knows with this team
They will win but it could be by 3 or 24. Who the hell knows with this team
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:42 pm to wish i was tebow
Surprised more books aren't hanging a heavily juiced +10.5 to protect from teasers.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:44 pm to wish i was tebow
Yep same with Florida. And marginally with Georgia. Tease all those suckers to a field goal. No way in hell those three lose this weekend.
Posted on 10/2/13 at 7:47 pm to bamafan425
Yup
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